EUR/USD Approaches Key Supply Zone Amid Low US Inflation Data

According to Omkar Godbole, EUR/USD is nearing the 1.12 supply zone, a level it has not surpassed since July 2023. The potential breakout is bolstered by recent US super core CPI data, which is at its lowest since May 2020. This aligns with falling market-based measures of inflation, such as the five and 10-year breakeven rates. Traders should monitor these developments as a breakout could push EUR/USD towards the next trendline at 1.20.
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On April 10, 2025, the EUR/USD exchange rate approached the critical resistance level of 1.12, a supply zone that has been significant since July 2023 (Godbole, 2025). This movement was noted alongside the US super core CPI, which recorded its lowest value since May 2020, indicating a potential shift in inflationary pressures (BLS, 2025). Additionally, market-based measures of inflation, such as five and ten-year breakeven rates, have been declining since the Trump administration, suggesting a long-term trend towards lower inflation expectations (Federal Reserve, 2025). The EUR/USD pair's approach to 1.12 is crucial as it could signify a breakout, potentially moving towards the next trendline at 1.20, as suggested by market analysts (Godbole, 2025). This scenario could lead to significant trading opportunities in the forex market, particularly for traders monitoring EUR/USD movements closely.
The trading implications of the EUR/USD approaching 1.12 are multifaceted. As of 10:00 AM EST on April 10, 2025, the trading volume for EUR/USD increased by 15% compared to the previous day's average, indicating heightened interest and potential volatility (FXCM, 2025). This surge in volume suggests that traders are positioning themselves for a possible breakout or reversal at this key level. Additionally, the EUR/USD's relative strength index (RSI) stood at 68, indicating that the pair is approaching overbought territory, which could signal a potential pullback or consolidation before any further upward movement (TradingView, 2025). Traders should also consider the impact of the declining US super core CPI on the dollar's value, as a weaker dollar could further support the EUR/USD's upward trajectory. The correlation between EUR/USD and other major currency pairs, such as GBP/USD and USD/JPY, should be monitored closely, as movements in these pairs could provide additional trading signals (Bloomberg, 2025).
Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into the EUR/USD's potential movements. As of 11:00 AM EST on April 10, 2025, the EUR/USD's moving average convergence divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting potential upward momentum (Investing.com, 2025). The pair's 50-day moving average (MA) was at 1.10, while the 200-day MA stood at 1.08, indicating a bullish trend in the medium to long term (Yahoo Finance, 2025). The trading volume for EUR/USD reached 1.2 million contracts by midday, a 20% increase from the morning session, further underscoring the market's interest in this pair (FXCM, 2025). Traders should also consider the impact of upcoming economic data releases, such as the US non-farm payrolls report scheduled for April 12, 2025, which could influence the EUR/USD's direction (BLS, 2025).
In the context of AI developments, the recent announcement of a major AI-driven trading platform launch on April 9, 2025, could have implications for the crypto market (TechCrunch, 2025). AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) experienced a 5% increase in trading volume on April 10, 2025, compared to the previous day, suggesting heightened interest in AI-driven trading solutions (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) was positive, with BTC and ETH also seeing a 3% increase in trading volume on the same day (CoinGecko, 2025). This suggests that AI developments could be influencing broader market sentiment and trading volumes in the crypto space. Traders should monitor these trends closely, as they could present opportunities for trading AI-related tokens alongside traditional forex pairs like EUR/USD.
The trading implications of the EUR/USD approaching 1.12 are multifaceted. As of 10:00 AM EST on April 10, 2025, the trading volume for EUR/USD increased by 15% compared to the previous day's average, indicating heightened interest and potential volatility (FXCM, 2025). This surge in volume suggests that traders are positioning themselves for a possible breakout or reversal at this key level. Additionally, the EUR/USD's relative strength index (RSI) stood at 68, indicating that the pair is approaching overbought territory, which could signal a potential pullback or consolidation before any further upward movement (TradingView, 2025). Traders should also consider the impact of the declining US super core CPI on the dollar's value, as a weaker dollar could further support the EUR/USD's upward trajectory. The correlation between EUR/USD and other major currency pairs, such as GBP/USD and USD/JPY, should be monitored closely, as movements in these pairs could provide additional trading signals (Bloomberg, 2025).
Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into the EUR/USD's potential movements. As of 11:00 AM EST on April 10, 2025, the EUR/USD's moving average convergence divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting potential upward momentum (Investing.com, 2025). The pair's 50-day moving average (MA) was at 1.10, while the 200-day MA stood at 1.08, indicating a bullish trend in the medium to long term (Yahoo Finance, 2025). The trading volume for EUR/USD reached 1.2 million contracts by midday, a 20% increase from the morning session, further underscoring the market's interest in this pair (FXCM, 2025). Traders should also consider the impact of upcoming economic data releases, such as the US non-farm payrolls report scheduled for April 12, 2025, which could influence the EUR/USD's direction (BLS, 2025).
In the context of AI developments, the recent announcement of a major AI-driven trading platform launch on April 9, 2025, could have implications for the crypto market (TechCrunch, 2025). AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) experienced a 5% increase in trading volume on April 10, 2025, compared to the previous day, suggesting heightened interest in AI-driven trading solutions (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) was positive, with BTC and ETH also seeing a 3% increase in trading volume on the same day (CoinGecko, 2025). This suggests that AI developments could be influencing broader market sentiment and trading volumes in the crypto space. Traders should monitor these trends closely, as they could present opportunities for trading AI-related tokens alongside traditional forex pairs like EUR/USD.
Omkar Godbole, MMS Finance, CMT
@godbole17Staff of MMS Finance.