Bitcoin's Potential Surge to $150K Hinges on Fed's 2026 Balance Sheet Expansion Amid Easing Macro Tensions

As macroeconomic factors continue to shape the cryptocurrency landscape, insights from Gracy Chen at Bitget highlight a probable return to Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion by 2026, potentially propelling Bitcoin (BTC) toward the $150,000 mark if liquidity floods the markets. This perspective underscores the intricate link between global economic policies and crypto trading dynamics, where traders must weigh impending liquidity shifts against current market hesitations. According to Gracy Chen's analysis shared on December 1, 2025, the Fed's pivot to expansionary measures appears increasingly likely due to stabilizing US-China relations and the unsustainable nature of prolonged high interest rates. For BTC traders, this narrative suggests monitoring key resistance levels around $100,000, with potential upside momentum if expansionary signals emerge, though caution prevails without concrete actions.

Diving deeper into the rationale, the easing of US-China tensions plays a pivotal role, as both nations recognize the improbability of actual conflict, fostering a more predictable global environment conducive to risk assets like Bitcoin. This geopolitical thaw could reduce safe-haven demand for traditional assets, channeling capital into high-growth sectors such as cryptocurrencies. Additionally, domestic US pressures, including AI-driven unemployment spikes, are straining the labor market, making higher interest rates untenable. By 2026, the financial sector faces a crunch with massive Private Credit renewals, amplifying calls for liquidity injections. From a trading standpoint, this could translate to increased institutional flows into BTC, with on-chain metrics like rising whale accumulations signaling bullish sentiment. Traders should eye trading volumes on pairs like BTC/USD, where recent 24-hour volumes have hovered around $30 billion, indicating sustained interest despite volatility. Without real-time easing confirmations, however, entering positions now risks missing optimal entry points below $80,000, aligning with Chen's strategy of waiting for verifiable liquidity moves.

Trading Strategies: Navigating Liquidity Expectations and Market Indicators

For crypto traders, integrating this Fed expansion outlook requires a balanced approach, focusing on support levels and market indicators. Bitcoin's current price action, if contextualized against historical expansions like post-2020 QE, shows correlations with liquidity surges driving 50-100% rallies. Key support sits at $90,000, with resistance at $105,000 potentially breaking if expansion news materializes. Broader market implications include correlations with stock indices like the S&P 500, where AI sector growth amid unemployment concerns could boost AI-related tokens such as FET or RNDR, indirectly supporting BTC as a hedge. Institutional flows, evidenced by ETF inflows exceeding $2 billion weekly in recent periods, reinforce this trend. Traders might consider long positions on BTC perpetual futures with stop-losses below $85,000, capitalizing on any dovish Fed rhetoric. Sentiment analysis from sources like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, often dipping to 'neutral' during macro uncertainties, advises against impulsive buys, echoing Chen's prudent stance.

Looking ahead, the potential for Bitcoin to challenge $150,000 hinges on tangible liquidity actions, not mere speculation. This scenario opens cross-market opportunities, such as pairing BTC trades with equity options in tech-heavy sectors affected by AI unemployment. Risks include prolonged high rates exacerbating downturns, possibly pushing BTC toward $70,000 support if expansion delays. Overall, this analysis emphasizes disciplined trading: monitor Fed minutes for expansion hints, track on-chain data like active addresses surging 10% monthly, and align strategies with macroeconomic shifts. By prioritizing verified signals over hype, traders can navigate this evolving landscape, potentially capturing upside in a liquidity-rich environment while mitigating downside risks.