Fed Cuts 25 bps, Ends QT on Dec 1: Liquidity Pivot Could Boost BTC, ETH and Altcoins — Trading Setup and Risks | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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10/29/2025 7:46:00 PM

Fed Cuts 25 bps, Ends QT on Dec 1: Liquidity Pivot Could Boost BTC, ETH and Altcoins — Trading Setup and Risks

Fed Cuts 25 bps, Ends QT on Dec 1: Liquidity Pivot Could Boost BTC, ETH and Altcoins — Trading Setup and Risks

According to @BullTheoryio, the Federal Reserve cut the policy rate by 25 bps and signaled quantitative tightening will end on December 1, implying cheaper funding and an end to balance sheet runoff, which historically weighed on risk assets and crypto liquidity (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, Chair Powell framed the move as risk management and said the overall outlook has not materially changed since September, with firm employment and easing but above-target inflation (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, Powell stated no decision has been made about a December cut and noted strongly differing views within the committee, reducing odds of a near-term easing cycle acceleration (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, Powell added that higher tariffs are lifting some goods prices but likely temporarily, and policy remains modestly restrictive, indicating the Fed wants flexibility rather than a pre-committed cutting path (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, the Fed ending QT means the balance sheet will stop shrinking, bank reserves should stabilize, and credit conditions may loosen, a backdrop that typically improves liquidity for risk assets including BTC and altcoins (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, consumer spending is slowing—especially among lower-income households—and the Fed is monitoring AI-driven layoffs and data center investment, factors that can influence growth, inflation, and liquidity-sensitive assets (source: @BullTheoryio). According to @BullTheoryio, the key trading takeaway is that the tightening cycle appears over, liquidity is turning, and capital rotation could start favoring Bitcoin and altcoins as conditions stabilize, though the path may depend on December FOMC outcomes and incoming data (source: @BullTheoryio).

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Analysis

The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1 has sparked significant optimism among cryptocurrency traders and investors. This move signals a potential shift towards increased liquidity in the financial system, which could propel Bitcoin and altcoins into a new phase of growth. According to Bull Theory, the Fed's actions mark the end of a tightening cycle that has drained trillions from the economy since 2022, stifling rallies in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. With QT halting, the balance sheet runoff stops, allowing banks to hold more reserves and easing credit conditions. This liquidity injection is poised to rotate capital back into high-risk assets, including BTC and ETH, potentially igniting sustained rallies in the crypto market.

Fed's Rate Cut and Its Impact on Crypto Trading Strategies

In the wake of the Fed's announcement, traders are recalibrating their strategies to capitalize on cheaper liquidity. Powell described the cut as "risk management," emphasizing that employment remains firm while inflation eases but stays above target. Without committing to a December cut, the Fed's cautious stance suggests a flexible approach, avoiding further tightening. For crypto enthusiasts, this means monitoring key trading pairs like BTC/USD and ETH/USD for breakout opportunities. Historically, when liquidity expands, Bitcoin often leads the charge, with altcoins following suit. Traders should watch for support levels around $60,000 for BTC, as a breach could signal a bullish reversal towards $70,000 resistance, driven by renewed institutional inflows.

Liquidity Shift and Altcoin Rally Potential

The end of QT is particularly bullish for altcoins, which have struggled amid liquidity drains. Since 2022, weekly money removal has choked strong rallies, but now, stabilizing liquidity could foster rotation into smaller caps. On-chain metrics, such as increased transaction volumes on networks like Ethereum, may surge as investors anticipate easier credit. Powell noted consumer spending slowdowns, especially among lower-income households, and the Fed's eye on AI-driven layoffs, which could influence broader market sentiment. In trading terms, this creates opportunities in pairs like SOL/USD or LINK/USD, where volumes might spike with positive liquidity news. Savvy traders are eyeing moving averages; for instance, if ETH crosses its 50-day MA, it could trigger a 15-20% upside in correlated altcoins within weeks.

From a stock market perspective, the Fed's moves correlate strongly with crypto dynamics. As risk assets in equities rebound—think tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq—crypto often mirrors these gains due to shared liquidity pools. Institutional flows, previously constrained by tight credit, are likely to increase, with hedge funds and family offices allocating more to Bitcoin ETFs. Powell's comments on short-lived tariff effects and modestly restrictive policy underscore a soft landing scenario, boosting confidence in cross-market trades. For example, a rally in AI-related stocks could spill over to AI tokens like FET or RNDR, offering arbitrage plays. Traders should track trading volumes; if daily BTC volumes exceed 50 billion USD, it confirms bullish momentum, potentially pushing the total crypto market cap above $2.5 trillion by year-end.

Trading Risks and Opportunities in a Post-QT Era

While the outlook is promising, risks remain. The Fed's differing views and lack of December cut guarantee mean volatility could persist. Crypto traders must incorporate stop-losses below key supports, such as $58,000 for BTC, to mitigate downside. On the upside, if liquidity truly returns, we could see a expansion phase for risk assets, with Bitcoin targeting all-time highs. Powell addressed AI investments in data centers, hinting at sector-specific boosts that align with crypto's tech narrative. Overall, this Fed pivot enhances trading opportunities, emphasizing the need for data-driven decisions, like analyzing 24-hour price changes and RSI indicators for overbought signals. As liquidity stabilizes, the crypto market stands at the cusp of a transformative rally, blending Fed policy with on-chain realities for informed trading.

Bull Theory

@BullTheoryio

Research, Trades, onchain plays and all other crypto stuff simplified.Publishes institutional-grade cryptocurrency research and blockchain market intelligence. Delivers in-depth analysis of on-chain metrics, tokenomics, and decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems. Features proprietary data models, investment thesis breakdowns, and macro-level crypto trend forecasts. Provides strategic insights for sophisticated investors navigating digital asset markets. Maintains rigorous methodology in fundamental and technical analysis across crypto assets.