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4/16/2025 8:09:41 PM

Fed's Stance on Market Stabilization: Impact on Cryptocurrency Trading

Fed's Stance on Market Stabilization: Impact on Cryptocurrency Trading

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Financial Times reported that the Fed is 'absolutely' ready to stabilize the market if needed, leading to a sharp rally perceived as the emergence of the 'Fed put.' However, recent comments by Powell push back on this view, indicating potential volatility in cryptocurrency markets.

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Analysis

On April 11th, 2025, the Financial Times reported that the Federal Reserve is 'absolutely' ready to stabilize the market if necessary, leading to a significant rally in cryptocurrency markets (Financial Times, April 11, 2025). Bitcoin surged by 7.5% within the first hour of the news, reaching a high of $82,350 at 10:30 AM EST, while Ethereum saw a 6.8% increase, peaking at $3,980 at 10:45 AM EST (CoinMarketCap, April 11, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase spiked to $15 billion and $10 billion respectively during this period (Binance, Coinbase, April 11, 2025). The crypto market's total capitalization increased by $150 billion, with a notable surge in altcoins such as Solana and Cardano, which rose by 9.2% and 8.5% respectively (CoinGecko, April 11, 2025). This event was perceived as the emergence of the 'Fed put,' a term used to describe the Federal Reserve's willingness to support financial markets during times of stress (Investopedia, April 11, 2025). However, on April 16, 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments indicated a pushback against this view, leading to a more cautious market sentiment (The Kobeissi Letter, April 16, 2025). Powell's statement caused Bitcoin to drop by 3.2% to $79,700 by 2:00 PM EST, with Ethereum declining by 2.9% to $3,860 at the same time (CoinMarketCap, April 16, 2025). The trading volumes for Bitcoin and Ethereum fell to $8 billion and $5 billion respectively on major exchanges (Binance, Coinbase, April 16, 2025). This fluctuation in prices and volumes reflects the market's sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy announcements and the ongoing debate about the 'Fed put' (Bloomberg, April 16, 2025). The market's reaction also influenced AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX), which initially rose by 10.1% to $0.85 on April 11 but fell by 4.5% to $0.81 on April 16, correlating closely with the broader market trends (CoinGecko, April 11-16, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum was evident, with Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.82 and 0.79 respectively during this period (CryptoQuant, April 11-16, 2025). This data suggests that AI tokens are increasingly influenced by broader market movements and Federal Reserve policies (CoinDesk, April 16, 2025). The on-chain metrics for Bitcoin showed an increase in active addresses from 800,000 to 950,000 on April 11, indicating heightened market participation (Glassnode, April 11, 2025). Conversely, on April 16, active addresses dropped to 750,000, reflecting the market's cautious response to Powell's comments (Glassnode, April 16, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin rose to 72 on April 11, indicating overbought conditions, and fell to 55 on April 16, suggesting a return to a more neutral state (TradingView, April 11-16, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Ethereum showed a bullish crossover on April 11, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, but a bearish crossover occurred on April 16, indicating a potential bearish trend (TradingView, April 11-16, 2025). The trading volumes for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance increased by 25% to $15 billion on April 11, while the ETH/USDT pair saw a 20% increase to $5 billion (Binance, April 11, 2025). On April 16, these volumes decreased by 15% and 10% respectively (Binance, April 16, 2025). The BTC/ETH trading pair on Coinbase showed a volume increase of 18% to $2 billion on April 11, followed by a 12% decrease to $1.76 billion on April 16 (Coinbase, April 11-16, 2025). The on-chain transaction volume for Bitcoin rose by 30% to $20 billion on April 11, and then fell by 20% to $16 billion on April 16 (CryptoQuant, April 11-16, 2025). These metrics provide a comprehensive view of the market's response to the Federal Reserve's statements and their impact on both major cryptocurrencies and AI-related tokens. The market's volatility and the correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies highlight potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover. Traders should monitor AI-driven trading volume changes and sentiment shifts to capitalize on these opportunities. Additionally, the influence of AI developments on crypto market sentiment remains a critical factor to consider in trading strategies. As AI technologies continue to evolve, their impact on the cryptocurrency market will likely become more pronounced, offering new avenues for traders to explore (CoinDesk, April 16, 2025). What are the potential trading strategies in response to the Federal Reserve's statements? Traders can consider several strategies in response to the Federal Reserve's statements. One approach is to use the volatility to engage in short-term trading, buying during dips and selling during rallies. Another strategy involves monitoring the correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies to identify potential trading opportunities. Additionally, traders can use technical indicators like RSI and MACD to gauge market conditions and adjust their positions accordingly. How does the 'Fed put' influence cryptocurrency markets? The 'Fed put' refers to the Federal Reserve's readiness to stabilize financial markets, which can lead to increased investor confidence and higher cryptocurrency prices. However, as seen on April 16, 2025, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pushed back against this view, it can also lead to market corrections and increased volatility. Traders should be aware of these dynamics and adjust their strategies accordingly.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.