FOMC: Futures Price 34% Fed Rate Hike Odds

André Dragosch flags that FOMC pricing remains too complacent, with Fed Funds Futures at 34% odds of rate hikes and Kalshi betting markets at just 24%, even as the 3-month T-Bill yield already trades 25 basis points above the Fed Funds target. Every prior instance of this spread triggered actual hikes inside one month. The gap highlights a clear disconnect between market expectations and Treasury pricing that has reliably preceded policy shifts in recent cycles.