According to @BullTheoryio, the U.S. Treasury’s rebuild of the Treasury General Account withdrew roughly $500B of liquidity in recent months, pressuring risk assets in Q3 (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Oct 3, 2025). The author states this drain pushed bank reserves toward 2019 repo-crisis zones as funding spreads widened, signaling early stress (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Oct 3, 2025). With the TGA rebuild nearly complete, the author argues the liquidity drain should end, leaving the Fed to either continue QT and risk dysfunction or halt QT and potentially reintroduce QE (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Oct 3, 2025). The post adds that potential consumer stimulus funded by tariff revenue is being discussed, which would inject additional retail liquidity if enacted (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Oct 3, 2025). The author concludes fresh liquidity historically favors BTC and altcoins and could catalyze a Q4 altseason, with traders watching TGA balances, bank reserves, funding spreads, and Fed balance sheet trends for confirmation (source: @BullTheoryio on X, Oct 3, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, institutional investors are continuing to decrease their stock market exposure, as evidenced by funding spreads dropping 8 basis points last week to the lowest level since August 2024 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 6, 2025). Funding spreads gauge institutional appetite for long positions in stocks via futures, options, and swaps. This decline signals weakening institutional confidence in equities, which often drives capital into alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies. Traders should monitor this shift as reduced equity demand could boost crypto market inflows, potentially increasing volatility and trading opportunities in digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, institutional investors are continuing to reduce their exposure to stocks, as evidenced by a significant drop in funding spreads by 8 basis points last week, reaching the lowest level since August 2024 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 6, 2025). This decline in funding spreads, which measure institutional demand for long stock positions via futures, options, and swaps, signals a risk-off sentiment among major market players. For crypto traders, this ongoing reduction in institutional stock allocations could drive increased capital flows and volatility in the cryptocurrency market as investors seek alternative assets with higher return potential.