According to @glassnode, Bitcoin is stabilizing above the True Market Mean while the market structure mirrors Q1 2022 with more than 25% of supply at an unrealized loss. According to @glassnode, demand is weakening across ETFs, spot markets, and futures. According to @glassnode, options markets show compressed volatility and cautious positioning. According to @glassnode, these on-chain and derivatives observations indicate a cautious trading backdrop in its latest Week On-Chain update.

According to @glassnode, Bitcoin (BTC) has added $732B in new capital this cycle and its 1-year realized volatility is nearly halved, indicating a calmer, larger, and more institutional market per the Q4 Digital Assets Report co-authored with Fasanara Digital; source: Glassnode. Lower realized volatility historically compresses options premiums and dampens realized price swings, a dynamic traders incorporate into derivatives pricing and position sizing; source: Cboe Options Institute.

According to @glassnode, BTC was strongly rejected at $93,000 last week but is re-testing the level today (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, large short-liquidation clusters are forming around $93,000 as price presses the resistance (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, these forced-buy flows can amplify momentum and act as fuel for an upside move, elevating short-squeeze potential during attempts to reclaim $93,000 (source: @glassnode).

According to @glassnode, digital assets are entering one of the most structurally important phases of the cycle, with Bitcoin (BTC) advancing through a three-year expansion driven by deep spot liquidity, historic capital inflows, and the pull of regulated ETF demand (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, this advance is not the result of speculative excess, underscoring that spot markets and ETF participation are now central to price formation and market structure (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, the market’s center of gravity has shifted toward spot liquidity and regulated ETF flows, highlighting these as the dominant drivers for institutional market perspectives in Q4 2025 (source: @glassnode).

According to @glassnode, despite recent volatility the crypto perpetual futures market remains muted. According to @glassnode, the hourly funding paid by longs, measured as a 168-hour SMA, has fallen to a new low of $72K per hour, an approximately 87% decline from the $565K per hour peak in mid-July.

According to @glassnode, Altcoin Vector Issue 31 delivers a weekly, professional-grade breakdown aimed at helping traders identify high-conviction setups across altcoin markets, which are described as crypto’s most volatile frontier. source: @glassnode The report positions itself as an exclusive resource for pinpointing actionable opportunities in altcoin trading each week. source: @glassnode

According to @glassnode, at similar BTC spot levels to Nov 21, the 1-week put implied volatility previously spiked to 76%, indicating aggressive downside hedging (source: @glassnode, glassno.de/4ozRBSd). Yesterday the same tenor was roughly 63%, signaling a more muted risk premium and a less worried market (source: @glassnode, glassno.de/4ozRBSd). @glassnode cautions that any further downside could trigger a far sharper IV repricing, increasing the risk of rapid options repricing if spot weakens (source: @glassnode, glassno.de/4ozRBSd).

According to @glassnode, Bitcoin shows early stabilization as the relative strength index rebounds and cumulative volume delta turns positive, while spot market volume, on-chain activity, and liquidity remain weak, source: Glassnode Market Pulse on X, Dec 1, 2025. According to @glassnode, ETFs are recording net inflows, yet futures positioning is de-risking and flows are dominated by short-term capital, source: Glassnode Market Pulse on X, Dec 1, 2025.

According to @glassnode, Bitcoin showed early signs of stabilization in Week 49 after a deep oversold slide, with momentum recovering (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, sell pressure is beginning to ease across spot and derivatives markets, providing trading-relevant context for short-term positioning (source: @glassnode).

According to @glassnode, The Bitcoin Vector #32 is built by Swissblock in collaboration with Willy Woo and presented by Glassnode, identifying the report’s authorship and presentation details for traders seeking the original BTC market analysis source (source: @glassnode).

According to @glassnode, a new Bitcoin cost-basis cluster formed after BTC’s drop into the low-$80K region, indicating fresh accumulation at these prices, source: Glassnode, Dec 1, 2025, link: glassno.de/48mkMlC. According to @glassnode, this area is now one of the densest zones on the cost-basis heatmap, highlighting significant positioning by recent buyers, source: Glassnode, Dec 1, 2025, link: glassno.de/48mkMlC. According to @glassnode, the cluster could act as a strong support area likely to be defended by recent buyers, which traders can monitor as a key on-chain support reference, source: Glassnode, Dec 1, 2025, link: glassno.de/48mkMlC.

According to Glassnode, BTC spot is $90.9K, while STH Cost Basis is $104.2K, Active Investors Mean is $88.1K, True Market Mean is $81.7K, and Realized Price is $56.4K (source: Glassnode). According to Glassnode’s metric definitions, price below the STH Cost Basis places short-term holders at an aggregate unrealized loss, while price above the Active Investors Mean leaves active investors in average profit (source: Glassnode). According to Glassnode, $88.1K (Active Investors Mean) and $81.7K (True Market Mean) sit below spot as key downside levels, $104.2K (STH Cost Basis) sits above spot as an overhead level for short-term holders, and $56.4K (Realized Price) represents the aggregate realized cost basis that defines the market-wide average acquisition price (source: Glassnode). According to Glassnode, a spot move back above $104.2K would place the STH cohort in aggregate profit by the definition of the STH Cost Basis (source: Glassnode).

According to @glassnode, XRP futures open interest fell from 1.7B XRP in early October to 0.7B XRP, a roughly 59% flush-out, indicating a material reduction in leveraged positioning, source: X post Nov 30, 2025 x.com/glassnode/status/1995162821039124553 and Glassnode data glassno.de/4pwZ0Cw. The 7-day SMA funding rate declined from about 0.01% to 0.001%, with October 10 marking a structural pause in speculators’ willingness to bet aggressively on upside, source: @glassnode via X x.com/glassnode/status/1995162821039124553 and Glassnode data glassno.de/4pwZ0Cw.

According to @glassnode, BTC must clear the top-buyers’ supply clusters to regain momentum toward a new all-time high (source: Glassnode on X, Nov 28, 2025). According to @glassnode, the immediate clusters sit at $93k–$96k and $100k–$108k, where resistance from recent buyers is typically expected (source: Glassnode on X, link glassno.de/4p2DTbn). According to @glassnode, a decisive break above these bands would be the key trigger to re-accelerate the uptrend toward a new ATH, making these levels the critical upside focus (source: Glassnode on X).

According to @glassnode, Bitcoin (BTC) is confined to a fragile $81K–$89K range as market liquidity thins and realized losses surge (source: @glassnode on X, Week On-Chain). @glassnode reports that futures are deleveraging and options positioning remains defensive, indicating a cautious derivatives posture (source: @glassnode on X, Week On-Chain). @glassnode adds that demand remains weak, reinforcing range-bound trading conditions around the highlighted levels (source: @glassnode on X, Week On-Chain).

According to @glassnode, USDT netflow to exchanges is strongly negatively correlated with BTC’s mid-term performance. According to @glassnode, euphoric phases historically show USDT net outflows of roughly -$100M to -$200M per day as investors lock in profits. According to @glassnode, at the BTC price peak of $126K, the 30-day SMA of USDT net outflows exceeded $220M, signaling broad profit-taking. According to @glassnode, this profit-taking signal is easing as USDT flows have turned positive again. For trading, according to @glassnode, sustained positive USDT netflows have historically coincided with softer BTC mid-term performance, while deep negative netflows have aligned with euphoric conditions.

According to @glassnode, whales on Hyperliquid turned net-long as price fell from $90K into the low-$80K range, marking the longest sustained long positioning in months (source: @glassnode, Nov 26, 2025). According to @glassnode, that positioning has since unwound, with exposure rotating to modestly net-short, indicating shallow conviction among large traders on the venue (source: @glassnode). According to @glassnode, the shift from prolonged net-long to modest net-short signals fading whale support on Hyperliquid and a weaker near-term conviction profile for dip-buying flows (source: @glassnode).

According to @glassnode, 34.91% of BTC supply, 38.37% of ETH supply, 36.70% of XRP supply, and 74.84% of SOL supply are currently in loss based on on-chain calculations (source: Glassnode post on X, Nov 25, 2025). Per the same data, SOL has the highest share of supply in loss and BTC the lowest among these assets (source: Glassnode). Ranking by percent supply in loss is SOL > ETH > XRP > BTC, with SOL at roughly 2.1 times BTC by this metric at the reported time (source: Glassnode).

According to @glassnode, realized losses among new investors in major altcoins are rising as prices struggle to recover, signaling mounting stress in the speculative segment of the crypto market; source: Glassnode. This stress signal reflects deteriorating risk conditions in altcoins based on on-chain losses and weak price recoveries, which is material for short-term trade management and liquidity monitoring in the altcoin market; source: Glassnode.

According to Glassnode, BTC currently trades below all short-term holder realized price bands while remaining above deeper realized levels, placing price action in a no-man’s-land between these on-chain thresholds. Source: Glassnode on X, Nov 25, 2025, glassno.de/4rlNr2Y. A decisive reclaim of the short-term holder realized price bands would be the first meaningful sign of structural recovery to monitor for trend confirmation and risk management. Source: Glassnode on X, Nov 25, 2025, glassno.de/4rlNr2Y. Until those bands are regained, conditions imply an indecisive range with overhead resistance from short-term cost bases and support near deeper realized cohorts. Source: Glassnode on X, Nov 25, 2025, glassno.de/4rlNr2Y.