Global Equities Resilience: MSCI ACWI’s 159-Day No-5% Pullback Streak (Longest Since 2016–2018) and What It Means for BTC, ETH | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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12/1/2025 7:40:00 PM

Global Equities Resilience: MSCI ACWI’s 159-Day No-5% Pullback Streak (Longest Since 2016–2018) and What It Means for BTC, ETH

Global Equities Resilience: MSCI ACWI’s 159-Day No-5% Pullback Streak (Longest Since 2016–2018) and What It Means for BTC, ETH

According to @KobeissiLetter, the MSCI All Country World Index has gone 159 trading days without a 5% drawdown, the longest stretch since 2016–2018, and the index spans 23 Developed and 24 Emerging Markets covering roughly 85% of global equities, source: @KobeissiLetter, Dec 1, 2025. For traders, extended global equity resilience aligns with broader risk-on conditions, and crypto’s co-movement with equities has strengthened since the pandemic, source: International Monetary Fund (Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks), Jan 2022. Given the ACWI backdrop, monitoring BTC and ETH alongside equity risk gauges can help anticipate correlation-driven flows and potential volatility spillovers if a pullback emerges, source: International Monetary Fund (Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks), Jan 2022; @KobeissiLetter, Dec 1, 2025.

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Analysis

The global equity market is demonstrating remarkable resilience, with the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) achieving a historic milestone of 159 trading days without a 5% pullback, the longest such streak since the 2016-2018 period, according to The Kobeissi Letter. This index, which encompasses 23 developed markets and 24 emerging markets, represents approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. For cryptocurrency traders, this sustained stability in traditional equities signals potential spillover effects into digital assets, as bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) often mirror broader market sentiment. As of recent market sessions, BTC has hovered around key support levels near $60,000, showing a 2% uptick in the last 24 hours amid this equity calm, while ETH trades near $2,500 with similar low-volatility patterns. This correlation underscores trading opportunities in crypto pairs like BTC/USD and ETH/BTC, where reduced pullbacks in stocks could bolster institutional flows into risk assets, potentially driving trading volumes higher on exchanges.

Analyzing ACWI Resilience and Crypto Market Correlations

Diving deeper into the ACWI's performance, this extended period without significant drawdowns highlights a bullish undercurrent in global stocks, fueled by factors such as steady economic growth and accommodative monetary policies. From a trading perspective, the index's resilience has implications for cryptocurrency markets, where historical data shows that prolonged equity stability often precedes increased volatility in digital assets. For instance, during the 2016-2018 streak, bitcoin experienced a massive rally, surging over 1,000% in value. Today, with ACWI's streak at 159 days as noted on December 1, 2025, traders should monitor on-chain metrics like BTC's realized volatility, which has dipped below 40% recently, indicating a compressed trading range. Support levels for BTC stand firm at $58,000, with resistance at $62,000, offering scalping opportunities in short-term trades. Meanwhile, ETH's trading volume has seen a 15% increase in the past week, correlating with emerging market strength in the ACWI, where regions like Asia contribute to global liquidity flows that indirectly support DeFi tokens.

Trading Strategies Amid Low Volatility

In this low-volatility environment, savvy traders can capitalize on range-bound strategies, using indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify overbought conditions in crypto pairs. For example, BTC's RSI currently sits at 55, suggesting neutral momentum that aligns with the ACWI's steady climb. Institutional investors, drawn by the equity market's resilience, are increasingly allocating to cryptocurrencies, with recent reports indicating over $1 billion in weekly inflows to BTC ETFs. This dynamic creates cross-market trading setups, such as hedging stock positions with ETH futures on platforms like CME, where 24-hour trading volumes exceed $10 billion. Emerging market components in the ACWI, capturing 24 diverse economies, further amplify this, as positive sentiment in stocks like those in the S&P 500 spills over to altcoins, boosting pairs like SOL/USD with a 5% gain in recent sessions. Traders should watch for any breach below ACWI's 5% threshold, which could trigger risk-off moves in crypto, potentially dropping BTC below key moving averages.

Looking ahead, the broader implications of this equity resilience point to sustained market optimism, but cryptocurrency traders must remain vigilant for external catalysts like geopolitical events or interest rate shifts. With ACWI covering 85% of global equities, its stability fosters a favorable backdrop for crypto adoption, evidenced by rising on-chain activity where ethereum's daily transactions have surpassed 1 million. For those eyeing long-term positions, accumulating BTC during dips supported by this equity strength could yield significant returns, mirroring patterns from past streaks. Overall, this period underscores the interconnectedness of traditional and digital markets, offering traders actionable insights into volatility compression and potential breakout trades.

To optimize trading in this resilient market, consider diversifying into AI-related tokens like FET or RNDR, which may benefit from tech sector gains within the ACWI. Market indicators such as the fear and greed index at 70 signal greed dominance, aligning with low pullback risks. By integrating these elements, traders can navigate the current landscape with precision, focusing on data-driven decisions for maximum profitability.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.