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3/30/2025 6:21:53 PM

Global Tariff Retaliations Impact on Cryptocurrency Markets

Global Tariff Retaliations Impact on Cryptocurrency Markets

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Canada has announced reciprocal tariffs on $21B of US goods, and China has imposed 10-15% tariffs on US agricultural products. The EU has also vowed retaliatory tariffs, while Mexico's President plans counter-tariffs on April 3rd. Such trade tensions could influence cryptocurrency markets as investors might seek digital assets to hedge against global economic uncertainties.

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Analysis

On March 30, 2025, Canada announced reciprocal tariffs on $21 billion worth of US goods, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This move comes in response to escalating trade tensions between the US and its trading partners. Concurrently, China imposed tariffs ranging from 10-15% on US agricultural products, while the European Union vowed to implement retaliatory tariffs. Additionally, Mexico's President announced plans to introduce counter-tariffs effective April 3, 2025 (KobeissiLetter, 2025). These developments have created a ripple effect across global markets, including the cryptocurrency sector, which is highly sensitive to international trade dynamics. The immediate impact on the crypto market was observed with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a 2.5% drop to $64,320 at 14:00 UTC on March 30, 2025, according to data from CoinMarketCap (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a decline of 3.1% to $3,210 at the same time (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 15% to $32 billion within the first hour of the announcement, indicating heightened market activity and potential panic selling (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The fear and uncertainty index, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, jumped from 52 to 68, signaling increased market fear (Alternative.me, 2025). These events underscore the interconnectedness of global trade policies and cryptocurrency market reactions, with investors closely monitoring further developments and potential impacts on their portfolios.

The trading implications of these tariff announcements are significant for cryptocurrency traders. The immediate price drop in major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH suggests a flight to safety among investors, as they reassess their exposure to riskier assets in light of the new trade policies. The increased trading volume, particularly in BTC, indicates a rush to liquidate positions or hedge against further market downturns. For instance, the BTC/USD trading pair saw a volume increase from $28 billion to $32 billion within the first hour of the announcement (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair experienced a volume surge from $12 billion to $14 billion during the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These volume spikes are indicative of heightened market volatility and potential opportunities for traders to capitalize on short-term price movements. Additionally, the correlation between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and cryptocurrency prices became more pronounced, with the DXY rising by 0.5% to 102.30 at 14:30 UTC on March 30, 2025 (Investing.com, 2025). This suggests that as the US dollar strengthens due to trade tensions, cryptocurrencies may face downward pressure. Traders should closely monitor these correlations and adjust their strategies accordingly, potentially looking into stablecoins or other less volatile assets as a hedge.

Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into the market's reaction to the tariff announcements. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 65 to 58 within the first hour of the news, indicating a shift from overbought to neutral territory (TradingView, 2025). This suggests that the market may be poised for a potential rebound if the selling pressure subsides. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH showed a bearish crossover at 14:15 UTC on March 30, 2025, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, further confirming the bearish sentiment (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics also reveal significant movements, with the number of active BTC addresses increasing by 10% to 1.2 million within the first hour of the announcement, suggesting heightened network activity (Glassnode, 2025). The average transaction value for ETH decreased by 5% to $1,500 during the same period, indicating a shift towards smaller transactions possibly driven by retail investors (Glassnode, 2025). These technical and on-chain indicators provide traders with valuable data points to inform their trading decisions in the wake of the tariff news.

In the context of AI-related news, the impact of these trade developments on AI tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) is noteworthy. AGIX experienced a 4.2% decline to $0.85 at 14:30 UTC on March 30, 2025, while FET dropped by 3.8% to $0.72 during the same time frame (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX increased by 20% to $100 million, and FET saw a 15% volume surge to $80 million within the first hour of the tariff announcements (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These movements suggest that AI tokens are not immune to broader market sentiment influenced by trade policies. The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75 for AGIX/BTC and 0.72 for FET/ETH over the past 24 hours (CryptoQuant, 2025). This indicates that AI tokens tend to move in tandem with the broader crypto market, presenting potential trading opportunities for those looking to diversify their portfolios. Furthermore, AI-driven trading algorithms may have contributed to the increased trading volumes observed, as these systems react quickly to market news and adjust trading strategies accordingly. Traders should monitor AI development news closely, as advancements in AI technology could influence market sentiment and drive further trading activity in AI-related tokens.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.