According to @godbole17, a sharp risk-off event could see the combined market cap of USDT and USDC surpass ETH or even BTC as capital rotates into stablecoins, a scenario with bearish implications for spot crypto and high-beta altcoins. Source: X post by @godbole17 on Oct 19, 2025. Traders can track stablecoin dominance and the market cap share of USDT and USDC versus BTC and ETH to confirm any shift toward risk-off positioning and adjust exposure by increasing cash allocations, trimming altcoin beta, and tightening stops if dominance accelerates. Source: X post by @godbole17 on Oct 19, 2025. Key tactical checks include a rising stablecoin dominance index, increases in USDT and USDC market cap, and weakening relative performance in BTC and ETH, which would align with the author’s risk-off framework. Source: X post by @godbole17 on Oct 19, 2025.

According to @godbole17, rising dollarization via stablecoins and their reserve purchases of U.S. Treasury bills have shifted crypto from anti-establishment to pro-establishment, increasing the market’s sensitivity to U.S. interest rates. Source: @godbole17 on X, Oct 19, 2025. Stablecoin reserves are predominantly invested in short-dated U.S. Treasuries, anchoring stablecoin liquidity to front-end yields and Treasury market conditions. Source: Tether Transparency reserve breakdown showing majority in U.S. Treasury bills, accessed 2024-09; Circle Reserve Fund portfolio statements managed by BlackRock, 2024. For trading, monitor DXY and 3-month to 2-year Treasury yields; tighter financial conditions or bill-market stress tend to pressure risk liquidity and can widen crypto basis and funding, while easing supports carry and depth in BTC and ETH. Source: Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report 2024 noting higher rates tighten liquidity conditions; ICE U.S. Dollar Index data, 2024; @godbole17 on X, Oct 19, 2025.

According to @godbole17, BTC rallied above 100,000 late last year and has mostly stayed above that level apart from dips in March and early April, indicating steady rather than euphoric demand, source: @godbole17. According to @godbole17, this cycle lacked the explosive god candles and retail mania seen in 2017 and 2020–21 because the high nominal price above 100,000 per coin encouraged cautious, measured buying from both retail and institutions, source: @godbole17. According to @godbole17, the incoming bear phase may include pullbacks into the low 70,000s, 60,000s, or even 50,000s, but it may not feel like a classic downturn given price anchoring at elevated nominal levels, source: @godbole17. According to @godbole17, those who observed BTC hold above 100,000 are likely to treat the bear phase as a buying opportunity, potentially driving a renewed demand wave toward 200,000 and beyond in the coming months, source: @godbole17. According to @godbole17, a possible macro trigger for a rapid upside candle is the Federal Reserve launching yield curve control, which could spark strong near-term momentum, source: @godbole17.

According to Omkar Godbole, BTC is unlikely to enter a bear market just because it did in 2017 and 2022, as those drawdowns were driven by specific blowups such as Terra, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX in 2022, plus the 2018 ICO bubble and China/South Korea crackdowns, rather than a self-fulfilling 4-year cycle; source: Omkar Godbole (@godbole17) on X, Oct 12, 2025. Godbole adds that current crypto sentiment is the mirror opposite of post-FTX capitulation, with markets leaning on a pro-crypto Trump White House, ETFs, DATs, stablecoin regulation, and broader adoption, creating conditions where negative surprises can emerge; source: Omkar Godbole (@godbole17) on X, Oct 12, 2025. He references Bitwise’s Hunter Horsley at Singapore Token 2049 to frame the key trader question of what the comparable exogenous shock might be this cycle, underscoring the need for BTC risk management over halving-cycle anchoring; source: Omkar Godbole (@godbole17) on X, Oct 12, 2025. For trading, Godbole’s view implies fading complacency, stress-testing positions, and preparing hedges against left-tail events rather than assuming an uninterrupted uptrend; source: Omkar Godbole (@godbole17) on X, Oct 12, 2025.

According to @godbole17, sBridge minimizes the use of wrapped tokens while many Ethereum bridges still rely on wrapped assets, citing an X post from @solayer_labs on Sep 25, 2025 as reference, source: @godbole17 on X and @solayer_labs on X. For traders, this highlights a concrete design difference that directly informs bridge selection and wrapped-asset exposure for ETH flows, source: @godbole17 on X and @solayer_labs on X.

According to @godbole17 on X, dated Sep 23, 2025, silver, gold, palladium and platinum have all outperformed Bitcoin BTC year to date in 2025. According to @godbole17 on X, dated Sep 23, 2025, this indicates precious metals are leading BTC on YTD relative performance.

According to @godbole17's X post on Sep 23, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is "eying $107k" (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 23, 2025). According to the same source, the post communicates a bullish price target of $107,000 for BTC (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 23, 2025). According to the source, no timeframe or supporting chart was provided alongside the target, indicating a directional view rather than a detailed trade setup (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 23, 2025).

According to @godbole17, ETH showed no bullish progress following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, which he characterized as a bad sign for bulls and near-term momentum. Source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 19, 2025.

According to @godbole17, Bitcoin BTC is once again capped by a trendline drawn from the 2017 highs, indicating persistent overhead resistance (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 17, 2025). He adds that BTC’s daily chart is losing the Ichimoku cloud, signaling risk of a proper retracement ahead (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 17, 2025). The confluence of long-term trendline resistance and a daily cloud breakdown points to elevated near-term downside risk for BTC price action (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 17, 2025).

According to @godbole17, BTC and S&P 500 (SPX) futures are down from their daily highs on Sep 17, 2025, marking an intraday pullback in both markets; source: x.com/godbole17/status/1968380582548881744.

According to @godbole17, the VIX is showing signs of life as the Federal Reserve decision approaches, signaling a pickup in equity volatility into the FOMC window (source: @godbole17, X post dated Sep 16, 2025). The observation highlights event-risk conditions around the rate announcement that volatility-focused traders may monitor into the decision timing (source: @godbole17).

According to @godbole17, the Dollar Index (DXY) is "down but not out" and remains within recent trading ranges, based on his X post on Sep 11, 2025 (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 11, 2025). According to @godbole17, he believes the prior DXY downtrend is over for now, indicating a shift away from a bearish trend bias in the near term (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 11, 2025). According to @godbole17, this view supports a neutral, range-focused USD stance for traders rather than pressing fresh downside momentum, which market participants can reference when calibrating USD exposure across FX and broader risk markets (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 11, 2025).

According to @godbole17, S&P 500 E-Mini futures have printed a rising wedge at record highs, signaling potential bull traps in BTC and DOGE. Source: https://twitter.com/godbole17/status/1966055644911350254. For traders, this setup suggests elevated risk of failed breakouts and sharp reversals in major crypto pairs, warranting tighter risk controls and waiting for breakout retests before adding exposure until the wedge resolves. Source: https://twitter.com/godbole17/status/1966055644911350254.

According to @godbole17, a Sept 10, 2025 post on X states "$DOGE ETF I don't get it!" without naming an issuer, filing, or approval status, leaving the status of any Dogecoin ETF unspecified (source: @godbole17 on X). In the U.S., exchange-traded funds require regulatory review, and crypto ETF proposals are typically processed via exchange rule-change filings (Form 19b-4) and registration statements such as Form S-1 or N-1A on the SEC's EDGAR system (source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission). Given the post provides no filing details, traders should confirm any $DOGE ETF headlines by checking for a related 19b-4 and registration statement or an approval order on official SEC channels before trading on the news (source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission).

According to @godbole17, SPX E-mini futures daily Bollinger Bands have compressed to the tightest since January 2024 while prices are at record highs, flagging a potential volatility expansion risk (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 9, 2025). In the Bollinger framework, band squeezes often precede range expansion and higher realized volatility, making breakout direction and follow-through critical for trade management (source: John Bollinger, BollingerBands.com Knowledge Base). Equity vol gauges and positioning should be monitored; low implied volatility regimes can flip quickly, and strategies like long straddles or long vega tend to benefit if volatility rises (source: Cboe Options Institute). For crypto traders, equity volatility shocks have historically coincided with tighter BTC–equity co-movements and risk-off drawdowns, so a volatility boom in ES could spill over to BTC and ETH via correlation channels (source: IMF Global Financial Stability Note 2022; BIS Bulletin 2022).

According to @godbole17, S&P 500 futures are tracing a wedge pattern that traders should monitor closely for a technical break. Source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 8, 2025. Wedges compress price between converging trendlines and often resolve in directional breakouts; key trading checks include a decisive trendline breach, volume expansion, and closing follow-through. Source: John J Murphy Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets and Thomas Bulkowski Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. Because stock–crypto comovement has been documented, an SPX futures breakout could spill over into BTC and ETH volatility via cross-asset risk transmission. Source: International Monetary Fund 2022 Global Financial Stability Note and Bank for International Settlements 2022 Bulletin on cryptoasset interconnectedness.

According to @godbole17, BTC appears to have bottomed via an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern while weak payrolls have raised expectations for a 50 bps Federal Reserve rate cut in 11 days, a setup that traders are monitoring for near-term direction (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 5, 2025). The author questions whether asset prices can keep rallying into an impending rate cut given ongoing fiscal stimulus and tariff-driven pressure on corporate profit margins, flagging the sustainability risk for risk assets including Bitcoin (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 5, 2025). The trading focus highlighted is the confirmation of the reported inverse H&S and the policy catalyst window into the Fed decision, with the author doubting how a rate cut would resolve tariff-related margin compression or boost hiring in the short run (source: @godbole17 on X, Sep 5, 2025).

According to @godbole17, he posted on X on Aug 30, 2025: "$BTC $500K next cycle," outlining a bullish public price forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) (source: @godbole17 on X). The post does not specify a timeframe or catalysts beyond the phrase "next cycle" (source: @godbole17 on X). Bitcoin halvings occur roughly every 210,000 blocks, about once every four years, which provides a commonly used structural timeframe for BTC market cycles (source: Bitcoin.org). If achieved over a four-year halving cycle, $500,000 would be about 6.8x above the March 2024 all-time high near $73,798 and equate to roughly a 61% annualized return from that level, offering traders a scenario benchmark for long-term position sizing and risk calibration (source: CoinMarketCap price history; source: Bitcoin.org; source: internal calculation). The statement is an individual outlook without supporting metrics or risk parameters in the post, so it functions as directional opinion rather than a detailed trading plan (source: @godbole17 on X).

According to @godbole17, BTC spot ETF inflows have slowed significantly and the broader bull run has cooled, pointing to waning momentum in the near term; source: @godbole17 on X, Aug 28, 2025. He attributes the deceleration to behavioral and market psychology, noting Bitcoin trades near a high nominal unit price around $100K, which can create unit-bias and round-number resistance that dampens fresh allocations; source: @godbole17 on X, Aug 28, 2025. Based on this assessment, traders may treat $100K as a key psychological level and use ETF net-flow trends to confirm any breakout or continued slowdown; source: @godbole17 on X, Aug 28, 2025.

According to Omkar Godbole (@godbole17), the U.S. yield curve continues to bear steepen as long-duration yields rise faster than the short end, creating a bullish setup for non-yielding assets like gold and BTC; source: Omkar Godbole (@godbole17). He notes the 2-year Treasury yield is lagging due to market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which supports gold and BTC relative performance during this macro backdrop; source: Omkar Godbole (@godbole17). He adds that the bear steepening dynamic underpins a constructive bias for gold and BTC while the short end remains anchored by rate-cut pricing; source: Omkar Godbole (@godbole17).