Historical Analysis of Altcoin and ETH Performance in Q1 of 2017 and 2021, and Potential for 2025
According to @CryptoMichNL, historical data from 2017 and 2021 shows significant positive performance for $ETH during the first quarters of those years. This analysis suggests a potential repeat of such trends in Q1 2025, anticipating increased altcoin volatility.
SourceAnalysis
In the first quarter of 2017, Ethereum (ETH) experienced a remarkable surge, with its price increasing from $8.17 on January 1, 2017, to $48.60 by March 31, 2017, marking a 495% increase over the three months (source: CoinMarketCap historical data). Similarly, in the first quarter of 2021, ETH's price escalated from $737.81 on January 1, 2021, to $1,746.41 by March 31, 2021, reflecting a 137% growth (source: CoinMarketCap historical data). These historical trends highlight the potential for significant price movements in ETH during the first quarter of cyclical bull markets.
The trading implications of these historical patterns suggest that traders and investors might anticipate similar volatility and growth in ETH and other altcoins in Q1 2025. For instance, the average daily trading volume of ETH in Q1 2017 was approximately $250 million, whereas in Q1 2021, it surged to around $20 billion per day (source: CoinMarketCap). This increase in trading volume indicates heightened market interest and liquidity, which could facilitate substantial price movements. Moreover, the market depth for ETH during these periods showed significant improvements, with the order book often extending to higher volumes and deeper price levels, suggesting increased market confidence and participation (source: CryptoCompare market depth data).
Technical indicators during these periods also provide insights into potential future trends. In Q1 2017, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ETH averaged around 65, indicating a strong but not overbought market condition (source: TradingView). By Q1 2021, the RSI averaged around 70, signaling a market nearing overbought conditions yet still showing bullish momentum (source: TradingView). Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH in both periods displayed bullish crossovers, further supporting the upward price trends (source: TradingView). These indicators, coupled with the historical volume and price data, suggest that traders should monitor similar signals in Q1 2025 for potential entry and exit points in their trading strategies.
The trading implications of these historical patterns suggest that traders and investors might anticipate similar volatility and growth in ETH and other altcoins in Q1 2025. For instance, the average daily trading volume of ETH in Q1 2017 was approximately $250 million, whereas in Q1 2021, it surged to around $20 billion per day (source: CoinMarketCap). This increase in trading volume indicates heightened market interest and liquidity, which could facilitate substantial price movements. Moreover, the market depth for ETH during these periods showed significant improvements, with the order book often extending to higher volumes and deeper price levels, suggesting increased market confidence and participation (source: CryptoCompare market depth data).
Technical indicators during these periods also provide insights into potential future trends. In Q1 2017, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ETH averaged around 65, indicating a strong but not overbought market condition (source: TradingView). By Q1 2021, the RSI averaged around 70, signaling a market nearing overbought conditions yet still showing bullish momentum (source: TradingView). Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH in both periods displayed bullish crossovers, further supporting the upward price trends (source: TradingView). These indicators, coupled with the historical volume and price data, suggest that traders should monitor similar signals in Q1 2025 for potential entry and exit points in their trading strategies.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast