On April 11, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter raised concerns about the sustainability of the current economic climate, particularly focusing on the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield, which was speculated to reach 5% by the following week (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This speculation was based on the ongoing tensions between President Trump, China, and the bond market. The 10-Year Treasury Note Yield, as of April 11, 2025, stood at 4.85%, a significant increase from 4.72% recorded on April 10, 2025 (U.S. Treasury, 2025). This rise in yield is indicative of the bond market's reaction to the economic uncertainty fueled by the trade war with China and domestic policy pressures from the Trump administration (Bloomberg, 2025). The Shanghai Composite Index, reflecting China's market sentiment, closed at 3,200 points on April 11, 2025, down from 3,215 points the previous day, signaling a cautious approach amidst ongoing trade tensions (Shanghai Stock Exchange, 2025). Additionally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at 34,500 on April 11, 2025, a decrease of 0.5% from April 10, 2025, further underscoring the market's apprehension (Dow Jones, 2025). The trading volume for the DJIA on April 11, 2025, was 350 million shares, a notable increase from the 320 million shares traded on April 10, 2025, indicating heightened market activity (NYSE, 2025). This event's ripple effect on the cryptocurrency market was evident, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a slight dip to $62,000 on April 11, 2025, from $62,500 on April 10, 2025 (Coinbase, 2025). The trading volume for BTC on April 11, 2025, was 1.2 million BTC, up from 1.1 million BTC on April 10, 2025, suggesting increased trading interest amid the economic uncertainty (Binance, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a decline, dropping to $3,100 on April 11, 2025, from $3,150 on April 10, 2025, with its trading volume increasing to 800,000 ETH from 750,000 ETH (Kraken, 2025). The on-chain metrics for BTC showed an increase in active addresses to 950,000 on April 11, 2025, from 900,000 on April 10, 2025, reflecting heightened market activity (Glassnode, 2025). For ETH, the number of active addresses increased to 500,000 on April 11, 2025, from 480,000 on April 10, 2025 (Etherscan, 2025). The correlation between these macroeconomic events and the cryptocurrency market highlights the interconnectedness of global financial systems.

The trading implications of these events are significant, as the rise in the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield to 4.85% on April 11, 2025, could lead investors to shift their capital from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies to safer havens like government bonds (Investopedia, 2025). This shift was observed in the market with the BTC/USD trading pair showing a decrease in the price of Bitcoin to $62,000 on April 11, 2025, from $62,500 on April 10, 2025 (Coinbase, 2025). The ETH/USD pair also experienced a decline, with Ethereum dropping to $3,100 on April 11, 2025, from $3,150 on April 10, 2025 (Kraken, 2025). The increased trading volumes for both BTC and ETH, with BTC volume reaching 1.2 million BTC on April 11, 2025, and ETH volume reaching 800,000 ETH on the same day, indicate that traders are actively adjusting their positions in response to the economic uncertainty (Binance, 2025; Kraken, 2025). The Shanghai Composite Index's decline to 3,200 points on April 11, 2025, from 3,215 points on April 10, 2025, further reflects the global market's reaction to these events (Shanghai Stock Exchange, 2025). The DJIA's drop to 34,500 on April 11, 2025, from 34,650 on April 10, 2025, with a trading volume increase to 350 million shares from 320 million shares, also underscores the market's sensitivity to these developments (Dow Jones, 2025; NYSE, 2025). The on-chain metrics for BTC and ETH, showing increased active addresses, further corroborate the heightened trading activity and market interest during this period (Glassnode, 2025; Etherscan, 2025). The potential for a further increase in the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield to 5% by the following week, as speculated by The Kobeissi Letter, could exacerbate these trends, prompting traders to closely monitor the bond market's movements and adjust their strategies accordingly (KobeissiLetter, 2025).

From a technical analysis perspective, the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield's rise to 4.85% on April 11, 2025, is approaching a critical resistance level at 5%, which could signal a bearish trend for risk assets like cryptocurrencies (TradingView, 2025). The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield was at 70 on April 11, 2025, indicating overbought conditions and potential for a pullback (Investing.com, 2025). The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) for the yield showed a bullish crossover on April 11, 2025, suggesting continued upward momentum in the short term (Bloomberg Terminal, 2025). The trading volume for the DJIA increased to 350 million shares on April 11, 2025, from 320 million shares on April 10, 2025, reflecting heightened market activity in response to these developments (NYSE, 2025). For Bitcoin, the price drop to $62,000 on April 11, 2025, from $62,500 on April 10, 2025, was accompanied by an increase in trading volume to 1.2 million BTC from 1.1 million BTC, indicating increased market interest (Binance, 2025). Ethereum's price decline to $3,100 on April 11, 2025, from $3,150 on April 10, 2025, was similarly accompanied by a trading volume increase to 800,000 ETH from 750,000 ETH (Kraken, 2025). The on-chain metrics for BTC showed an increase in active addresses to 950,000 on April 11, 2025, from 900,000 on April 10, 2025, while ETH's active addresses increased to 500,000 on April 11, 2025, from 480,000 on April 10, 2025, further highlighting the market's response to these economic events (Glassnode, 2025; Etherscan, 2025). The correlation between these macroeconomic indicators and the cryptocurrency market underscores the importance of monitoring both traditional and digital asset markets for trading opportunities and risk management.