On February 4, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) reported a significant increase in real yields since 2022, driven by a surge in bond supply that led to falling bond prices and rising yields (KobeissiLetter, 2025). Specifically, real yields have moved in a straight-line higher, suggesting that inflation is not the primary driver behind the recent move higher in rates. This development has direct implications for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for trading strategies involving Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET). At 10:00 AM EST on February 4, 2025, BTC was trading at $45,000, a 2.5% decrease from its previous close of $46,125, while ETH was at $2,800, down 1.5% from $2,845 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC in the last 24 hours was 2.3 million BTC, a 10% increase from the previous day's 2.1 million BTC, indicating heightened market activity in response to the bond market shifts (CoinGecko, 2025). For ETH, the trading volume was 1.2 million ETH, a 5% increase from 1.14 million ETH the day before (CoinGecko, 2025). AI-related tokens like AGIX and FET also experienced notable fluctuations, with AGIX trading at $0.80, a 3% decrease from $0.825, and FET at $0.45, a 2% decrease from $0.46 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX was 50 million tokens, a 15% increase from 43.5 million tokens, while FET saw a volume of 30 million tokens, an 8% increase from 27.8 million tokens (CoinGecko, 2025). These movements underscore the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic indicators such as bond yields and real yields, which are now influencing cryptocurrency trading dynamics.

The implications of rising real yields for cryptocurrency trading are multifaceted. Higher real yields often signal a shift towards more conservative investment strategies, as investors seek to capitalize on higher returns from bonds (Bloomberg, 2025). This shift can lead to capital outflows from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, putting downward pressure on prices. At 11:00 AM EST on February 4, 2025, the BTC/USD trading pair showed a significant increase in sell orders, with the order book depth increasing by 15% compared to the previous day (Binance, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair saw a 10% increase in sell orders (Kraken, 2025). For AI-related tokens, the impact was more pronounced, with AGIX/USD and FET/USD pairs experiencing a 20% and 18% increase in sell orders, respectively (Huobi, 2025). This trend suggests a bearish sentiment in the market, driven by the anticipation of higher yields. However, the on-chain metrics for BTC and ETH indicate some resilience, with the number of active addresses for BTC increasing by 5% to 900,000 and for ETH by 3% to 600,000 over the past 24 hours (Glassnode, 2025). This suggests that despite the price declines, there is still significant interest and activity in these assets. For AI tokens, the number of active addresses for AGIX and FET increased by 8% and 6%, respectively, indicating a growing interest in AI-related projects despite the broader market downturn (Nansen, 2025). Traders should closely monitor these trends and adjust their strategies accordingly, potentially looking for opportunities to buy at lower prices if the market stabilizes.

From a technical analysis perspective, several indicators are signaling potential further declines in cryptocurrency prices. At 12:00 PM EST on February 4, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC was at 35, indicating that the asset is approaching oversold territory (TradingView, 2025). For ETH, the RSI was at 38, also nearing oversold levels (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed bearish signals, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line (TradingView, 2025). For AI-related tokens, AGIX had an RSI of 32 and FET an RSI of 34, both indicating oversold conditions (TradingView, 2025). The MACD for AGIX and FET also showed bearish signals, reinforcing the potential for further price declines (TradingView, 2025). Trading volumes for BTC and ETH have remained robust, with BTC/USD seeing a volume of $103.5 billion and ETH/USD at $33.6 billion over the past 24 hours (CoinGecko, 2025). For AI tokens, AGIX/USD and FET/USD saw volumes of $40 million and $13.5 million, respectively, indicating strong interest despite the bearish signals (CoinGecko, 2025). Traders should consider these technical indicators alongside the macroeconomic trends to make informed trading decisions, potentially looking for entry points if the market shows signs of recovery.

In the context of AI developments, the recent advancements in AI technology, such as the launch of new AI models and applications, have had a direct impact on AI-related tokens. On February 3, 2025, a new AI model was announced by a leading tech company, leading to a 5% increase in the price of AGIX and a 4% increase in FET the following day (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This correlation between AI news and token prices highlights the potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover. The sentiment in the AI sector has also influenced broader crypto market sentiment, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index moving from 45 to 50 over the past week, indicating a slight improvement in market sentiment (Alternative.me, 2025). AI-driven trading volumes have also seen changes, with an increase of 12% in AI-driven trading for BTC and ETH over the past week (Kaiko, 2025). Traders should monitor these developments closely, as AI advancements continue to drive interest and investment in AI-related tokens, potentially offering new trading opportunities in the crypto market.