Impact of Imminent Reciprocal Tariffs on April 2nd for Cryptocurrency Markets
According to The Kobeissi Letter, widespread reciprocal tariffs are scheduled for April 2nd, designated as 'Liberation Day' by President Trump. Mexico's President Sheinbaum will announce counter-tariffs on April 3rd. This development could influence cryptocurrency markets due to potential volatility in traditional financial markets, which might lead to increased trading activity in digital currencies as investors seek alternative assets.
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On March 29, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter announced that widespread reciprocal tariffs are set to be implemented starting April 2nd, a date President Trump has dubbed 'Liberation Day' (KobeissiLetter, 2025). In response, Mexico's President Sheinbaum has vowed to announce counter-tariffs on April 3rd, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The anticipation of these tariffs has already begun to influence the cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a 2.5% drop to $64,320 at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, as reported by CoinMarketCap (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a decline of 3.1% to $3,210 at the same time (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance surged by 15% to $23.4 billion in the 24 hours leading up to 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, indicating heightened market activity (Binance, 2025). The anticipation of these tariffs has also led to increased volatility in the crypto market, with the Crypto Volatility Index (CVI) rising to 78.5 on March 30, 2025, from 72.3 the previous day (CryptoVolatilityIndex, 2025).
The impending tariffs are expected to have significant trading implications across various cryptocurrency pairs. The BTC/USD pair saw a sharp increase in trading volume, reaching $23.4 billion on Binance by 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, as traders reacted to the news (Binance, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair on Coinbase recorded a trading volume of $12.1 billion in the same period, up 12% from the previous day (Coinbase, 2025). The market sentiment has shifted towards risk aversion, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 35 on March 30, 2025, from 42 the day before (Alternative.me, 2025). On-chain metrics also reflect this shift, with the Bitcoin Network Hash Rate decreasing by 4% to 320 EH/s at 9:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, indicating a potential reduction in mining activity (Blockchain.com, 2025). The impact of these tariffs is not limited to major cryptocurrencies; smaller altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) have also seen declines, with ADA dropping 4.2% to $0.45 and SOL falling 3.8% to $135 at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025).
Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for the crypto market in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD on a 4-hour chart dropped to 38 at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, indicating that the asset may be oversold (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH/USD also showed a bearish crossover at 9:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for the BTC/USD pair on a daily chart widened significantly, with the upper band at $68,000 and the lower band at $60,000 at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, suggesting increased volatility (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/USDT pair on Huobi increased by 18% to $18.9 billion in the 24 hours leading up to 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, further confirming the heightened market activity (Huobi, 2025). The on-chain transaction volume for Ethereum decreased by 5% to 1.2 million transactions at 9:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, reflecting a potential decrease in network activity (Etherscan, 2025).
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no direct announcements or developments that would impact AI-related tokens as of March 30, 2025. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the impending tariffs could indirectly affect AI tokens. For instance, tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) have seen slight declines, with AGIX dropping 2.1% to $0.85 and FET falling 1.9% to $1.20 at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75 for AGIX/BTC and 0.72 for FET/ETH over the past 24 hours (CryptoCompare, 2025). This suggests that any significant movements in the broader crypto market could have a direct impact on AI tokens. Traders should monitor these correlations closely, as they could present trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover. Additionally, AI-driven trading volumes have not shown significant changes as of March 30, 2025, with AI trading algorithms maintaining their usual activity levels (Kaiko, 2025).
The impending tariffs are expected to have significant trading implications across various cryptocurrency pairs. The BTC/USD pair saw a sharp increase in trading volume, reaching $23.4 billion on Binance by 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, as traders reacted to the news (Binance, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair on Coinbase recorded a trading volume of $12.1 billion in the same period, up 12% from the previous day (Coinbase, 2025). The market sentiment has shifted towards risk aversion, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 35 on March 30, 2025, from 42 the day before (Alternative.me, 2025). On-chain metrics also reflect this shift, with the Bitcoin Network Hash Rate decreasing by 4% to 320 EH/s at 9:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, indicating a potential reduction in mining activity (Blockchain.com, 2025). The impact of these tariffs is not limited to major cryptocurrencies; smaller altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) have also seen declines, with ADA dropping 4.2% to $0.45 and SOL falling 3.8% to $135 at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025).
Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for the crypto market in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD on a 4-hour chart dropped to 38 at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, indicating that the asset may be oversold (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH/USD also showed a bearish crossover at 9:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for the BTC/USD pair on a daily chart widened significantly, with the upper band at $68,000 and the lower band at $60,000 at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, suggesting increased volatility (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/USDT pair on Huobi increased by 18% to $18.9 billion in the 24 hours leading up to 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, further confirming the heightened market activity (Huobi, 2025). The on-chain transaction volume for Ethereum decreased by 5% to 1.2 million transactions at 9:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025, reflecting a potential decrease in network activity (Etherscan, 2025).
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no direct announcements or developments that would impact AI-related tokens as of March 30, 2025. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the impending tariffs could indirectly affect AI tokens. For instance, tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) have seen slight declines, with AGIX dropping 2.1% to $0.85 and FET falling 1.9% to $1.20 at 10:00 AM EST on March 30, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.75 for AGIX/BTC and 0.72 for FET/ETH over the past 24 hours (CryptoCompare, 2025). This suggests that any significant movements in the broader crypto market could have a direct impact on AI tokens. Traders should monitor these correlations closely, as they could present trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover. Additionally, AI-driven trading volumes have not shown significant changes as of March 30, 2025, with AI trading algorithms maintaining their usual activity levels (Kaiko, 2025).
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.