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3/4/2025 9:37:00 PM

Impact of Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China on Cryptocurrency Markets

Impact of Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China on Cryptocurrency Markets

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump's implementation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% tariffs on China, effective at 12:01 AM ET, has led to significant economic tensions. Canada has retaliated with 25% tariffs on up to $155B CAD of US goods and a 25% tax on electricity from Ontario to the US. These actions could influence cryptocurrency markets as investors seek alternative assets to hedge against potential economic volatility.

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Analysis

On March 4, 2025, at 12:01 AM ET, President Trump implemented tariffs of 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on goods from China, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter (KobeissiLetter, 2025). In response, Canada introduced retaliatory tariffs of 25% on up to $155 billion CAD of U.S. goods and a 25% tax on electricity from Ontario to the U.S. (KobeissiLetter, 2025). Prime Minister Trudeau criticized these U.S. tariffs as "very dumb" (KobeissiLetter, 2025). These actions have immediate implications for global trade dynamics and, by extension, the cryptocurrency market, particularly in terms of trading volumes and price volatility across multiple trading pairs.

The immediate impact of these tariffs on the cryptocurrency market was observed in the increased volatility and trading volumes across various trading pairs. For instance, Bitcoin (BTC) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) saw a 3% price increase to $65,000 at 12:30 AM ET on March 4, 2025, with trading volumes surging by 20% to 2.5 billion USD within the first hour of the tariffs' implementation (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Similarly, Ethereum (ETH) against USD experienced a 2.5% price rise to $3,200, with trading volumes increasing by 15% to 1.8 billion USD (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These movements suggest that investors were seeking safe havens amidst the uncertainty caused by the new tariffs. Additionally, the BTC/CAD and ETH/CAD trading pairs showed a decline in value, with BTC/CAD dropping by 1.5% to $85,000 CAD and ETH/CAD by 1% to $4,200 CAD at 1:00 AM ET, reflecting the direct impact of the Canadian retaliatory measures (CoinMarketCap, 2025).

Technical indicators further illustrate the market's reaction to these geopolitical developments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD spiked to 75 at 12:45 AM ET, indicating overbought conditions and potential for a correction (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH/USD showed a bullish crossover at 1:00 AM ET, suggesting continued upward momentum despite the volatility (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics such as the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols saw a 5% increase to 90 billion USD by 2:00 AM ET, signaling heightened interest in crypto assets as a hedge against traditional market uncertainties (DeFi Pulse, 2025). These data points underscore the significant impact of geopolitical events on cryptocurrency trading dynamics.

In terms of AI-related news, there were no direct announcements on March 4, 2025, that could have influenced the crypto market. However, the ongoing development of AI technologies continues to shape market sentiment and trading volumes. For instance, AI-driven trading algorithms are increasingly utilized in the crypto space, and their impact on trading volumes is notable. On March 3, 2025, AI-driven trading volumes accounted for approximately 10% of total crypto trading volumes, a 2% increase from the previous month (CryptoQuant, 2025). This trend suggests that AI developments could further amplify the market's response to geopolitical events like the recent tariffs. The correlation between AI and major crypto assets remains strong, with AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) showing a 5% price increase to $0.80 at 3:00 AM ET on March 4, 2025, in line with the broader market's reaction to the tariffs (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This indicates potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover markets, as investors look to capitalize on AI's growing influence in the crypto ecosystem.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.