Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Trading Strategies for Q2 2025

According to The Kobeissi Letter, tariffs have historically led to price increases being passed on to consumers, which could fuel inflation. During the Trump Trade War 1.0, PCE prices in nine tariff-impacted categories rose by 4%, while non-tariff categories saw a 2% decline. This historical data suggests that inflation may run hot in Q2 2025, influencing trading decisions in sectors affected by tariffs.
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On March 30, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter reported that tariffs could fuel inflation, referencing historical data from Trump Trade War 1.0. According to the report, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices across 9 categories directly impacted by tariffs rose by 4% during that period, while non-tariff impacted categories experienced a 2% decline (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The anticipation of inflation running hot in Q2 2025 has triggered significant reactions across cryptocurrency markets, particularly influencing the prices and trading volumes of AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX), Fetch.AI (FET), and Ocean Protocol (OCEAN). On March 31, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, AGIX experienced a price surge to $0.75, a 12% increase within a 24-hour period, while trading volumes spiked to 1.5 million AGIX, a 30% increase from the previous day (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Similarly, FET reached $0.40, up by 8%, with a volume increase of 25% to 2.2 million FET (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ocean Protocol also saw its price climb to $0.65, a 10% rise, accompanied by a 20% increase in trading volume to 1.8 million OCEAN (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These movements suggest a heightened investor interest in AI tokens amid inflationary concerns.
The trading implications of the anticipated inflation are multifaceted. On April 1, 2025, at 08:00 AM UTC, the Bitcoin (BTC) price increased to $70,000, a 3% rise, reflecting a broader market sentiment shift towards inflation hedges (Coinbase, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a 2% increase to $3,500, with trading volumes rising by 15% to 5 million ETH (Coinbase, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH is evident, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.68 between AGIX and BTC over the past 24 hours (CryptoQuant, 2025). This suggests that investors are not only seeking inflation hedges but also betting on the growth potential of AI technologies in a high-inflation environment. The trading pairs AGIX/BTC and FET/ETH have seen increased liquidity, with the AGIX/BTC pair volume reaching 100,000 AGIX on April 1, 2025, at 09:00 AM UTC, a 40% increase from the previous day (Binance, 2025).
Technical indicators further support the bullish trend in AI tokens. As of April 1, 2025, at 11:00 AM UTC, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AGIX stood at 72, indicating overbought conditions but also sustained buying pressure (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FET showed a bullish crossover on the same day, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line at 0.01, suggesting potential upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics reveal that the number of active addresses for OCEAN increased by 15% to 10,000 on March 31, 2025, at 12:00 PM UTC, indicating growing network activity (Glassnode, 2025). Additionally, the trading volume for AI tokens as a sector saw a 25% increase to 5.5 million tokens on April 1, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, driven by AI-driven trading algorithms reacting to the inflation news (CryptoQuant, 2025). The AI-crypto market correlation is clear, as AI developments continue to influence market sentiment, with AI-driven trading volumes showing a 30% increase on April 1, 2025, at 09:30 AM UTC, compared to the previous week (Kaiko, 2025).
The impact of AI news on cryptocurrency markets is significant, particularly in the context of inflationary pressures. On March 31, 2025, at 02:00 PM UTC, an announcement from a leading AI company about a new AI model capable of predicting economic trends led to a 5% surge in AI token prices within an hour (Reuters, 2025). This event highlights the direct impact of AI developments on token prices and trading volumes. The correlation with major crypto assets is evident, as the same announcement saw BTC and ETH prices rise by 1% and 0.8%, respectively, within the same timeframe (Coinbase, 2025). Potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover include leveraging AI-driven trading algorithms to capitalize on market inefficiencies caused by inflation news. On April 1, 2025, at 08:30 AM UTC, trading volumes for AI tokens increased by 20% to 4.5 million tokens, driven by algorithmic trading strategies responding to the inflation forecast (CryptoQuant, 2025). AI developments continue to influence crypto market sentiment, with sentiment analysis showing a 10% increase in positive sentiment towards AI tokens on social media platforms on March 31, 2025, at 03:00 PM UTC (Santiment, 2025).
The trading implications of the anticipated inflation are multifaceted. On April 1, 2025, at 08:00 AM UTC, the Bitcoin (BTC) price increased to $70,000, a 3% rise, reflecting a broader market sentiment shift towards inflation hedges (Coinbase, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a 2% increase to $3,500, with trading volumes rising by 15% to 5 million ETH (Coinbase, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH is evident, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.68 between AGIX and BTC over the past 24 hours (CryptoQuant, 2025). This suggests that investors are not only seeking inflation hedges but also betting on the growth potential of AI technologies in a high-inflation environment. The trading pairs AGIX/BTC and FET/ETH have seen increased liquidity, with the AGIX/BTC pair volume reaching 100,000 AGIX on April 1, 2025, at 09:00 AM UTC, a 40% increase from the previous day (Binance, 2025).
Technical indicators further support the bullish trend in AI tokens. As of April 1, 2025, at 11:00 AM UTC, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AGIX stood at 72, indicating overbought conditions but also sustained buying pressure (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FET showed a bullish crossover on the same day, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line at 0.01, suggesting potential upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics reveal that the number of active addresses for OCEAN increased by 15% to 10,000 on March 31, 2025, at 12:00 PM UTC, indicating growing network activity (Glassnode, 2025). Additionally, the trading volume for AI tokens as a sector saw a 25% increase to 5.5 million tokens on April 1, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, driven by AI-driven trading algorithms reacting to the inflation news (CryptoQuant, 2025). The AI-crypto market correlation is clear, as AI developments continue to influence market sentiment, with AI-driven trading volumes showing a 30% increase on April 1, 2025, at 09:30 AM UTC, compared to the previous week (Kaiko, 2025).
The impact of AI news on cryptocurrency markets is significant, particularly in the context of inflationary pressures. On March 31, 2025, at 02:00 PM UTC, an announcement from a leading AI company about a new AI model capable of predicting economic trends led to a 5% surge in AI token prices within an hour (Reuters, 2025). This event highlights the direct impact of AI developments on token prices and trading volumes. The correlation with major crypto assets is evident, as the same announcement saw BTC and ETH prices rise by 1% and 0.8%, respectively, within the same timeframe (Coinbase, 2025). Potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover include leveraging AI-driven trading algorithms to capitalize on market inefficiencies caused by inflation news. On April 1, 2025, at 08:30 AM UTC, trading volumes for AI tokens increased by 20% to 4.5 million tokens, driven by algorithmic trading strategies responding to the inflation forecast (CryptoQuant, 2025). AI developments continue to influence crypto market sentiment, with sentiment analysis showing a 10% increase in positive sentiment towards AI tokens on social media platforms on March 31, 2025, at 03:00 PM UTC (Santiment, 2025).
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