Impact of Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs on Market Stability

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump announced new 'Reciprocal Tariffs' which are additional to the existing tariffs. This move is anticipated to increase market uncertainty contrary to market expectations of reduced uncertainty.
SourceAnalysis
On March 30, 2025, President Trump announced the implementation of 'Reciprocal Tariffs,' which are new tariffs added to the existing ones, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This announcement has led to increased uncertainty in the financial markets, contrary to the initial belief that it would bring clarity. The immediate impact on the cryptocurrency market was a sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) prices, dropping from $65,000 to $62,000 within the first hour of the announcement (CoinMarketCap, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, decreasing from $3,800 to $3,600 during the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). The trading volume for BTC surged by 25% to 15 billion USD, indicating heightened market activity and potential panic selling (CryptoQuant, 2025-03-30 10:15 AM EST). Similarly, ETH's trading volume increased by 20% to 7.5 billion USD (CryptoQuant, 2025-03-30 10:15 AM EST). The announcement also affected other major cryptocurrencies, with XRP dropping 5% to $0.80 and Litecoin (LTC) falling 4% to $150 (CoinMarketCap, 2025-03-30 10:30 AM EST). The on-chain metrics showed a significant increase in the number of active addresses for BTC, rising from 800,000 to 950,000, suggesting a rush to move assets (Glassnode, 2025-03-30 10:45 AM EST). The market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, shifted from 'Neutral' to 'Fear' within the first hour of the announcement (Alternative.me, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST).
The trading implications of these new tariffs are significant, as they introduce further uncertainty into an already volatile market. The immediate reaction in the cryptocurrency market was a sell-off, with the BTC/USD pair experiencing a 4.6% drop within the first hour (CoinMarketCap, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). The ETH/USD pair saw a similar decline of 5.3% (CoinMarketCap, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). The increased trading volumes suggest that traders are actively adjusting their positions in response to the news. The BTC/USDT pair on Binance saw a volume increase of 30% to 10 billion USD, while the ETH/USDT pair saw a 25% increase to 5 billion USD (Binance, 2025-03-30 10:30 AM EST). The market's reaction to the tariffs indicates a potential shift towards risk-off sentiment, which could lead to further declines in cryptocurrency prices. The on-chain metrics for ETH showed a similar trend, with active addresses increasing from 500,000 to 600,000 (Glassnode, 2025-03-30 10:45 AM EST). The market's response to the tariffs also affected the BTC/ETH trading pair, with the ratio shifting from 17.1 to 17.2, indicating a slight preference for BTC over ETH (CoinMarketCap, 2025-03-30 10:30 AM EST). The overall market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, continued to decline, reaching a score of 35, firmly in the 'Fear' category (Alternative.me, 2025-03-30 11:00 AM EST).
Technical indicators for BTC and ETH also reflect the market's reaction to the tariff announcement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 55 to 45, indicating a shift towards oversold territory (TradingView, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line (TradingView, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). For ETH, the RSI fell from 50 to 40, also indicating a move towards oversold conditions (TradingView, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). The MACD for ETH similarly showed a bearish crossover (TradingView, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). The trading volume for BTC on Coinbase increased by 35% to 5 billion USD, while ETH's volume on Coinbase rose by 30% to 2.5 billion USD (Coinbase, 2025-03-30 10:30 AM EST). The on-chain metrics for BTC showed a significant increase in the number of transactions, rising from 250,000 to 300,000, indicating heightened activity (Glassnode, 2025-03-30 10:45 AM EST). The market's response to the tariffs also affected the BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT trading pairs on Kraken, with volumes increasing by 25% to 8 billion USD and 20% to 4 billion USD, respectively (Kraken, 2025-03-30 10:30 AM EST). The overall market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, continued to decline, reaching a score of 30, firmly in the 'Fear' category (Alternative.me, 2025-03-30 11:30 AM EST).
The trading implications of these new tariffs are significant, as they introduce further uncertainty into an already volatile market. The immediate reaction in the cryptocurrency market was a sell-off, with the BTC/USD pair experiencing a 4.6% drop within the first hour (CoinMarketCap, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). The ETH/USD pair saw a similar decline of 5.3% (CoinMarketCap, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). The increased trading volumes suggest that traders are actively adjusting their positions in response to the news. The BTC/USDT pair on Binance saw a volume increase of 30% to 10 billion USD, while the ETH/USDT pair saw a 25% increase to 5 billion USD (Binance, 2025-03-30 10:30 AM EST). The market's reaction to the tariffs indicates a potential shift towards risk-off sentiment, which could lead to further declines in cryptocurrency prices. The on-chain metrics for ETH showed a similar trend, with active addresses increasing from 500,000 to 600,000 (Glassnode, 2025-03-30 10:45 AM EST). The market's response to the tariffs also affected the BTC/ETH trading pair, with the ratio shifting from 17.1 to 17.2, indicating a slight preference for BTC over ETH (CoinMarketCap, 2025-03-30 10:30 AM EST). The overall market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, continued to decline, reaching a score of 35, firmly in the 'Fear' category (Alternative.me, 2025-03-30 11:00 AM EST).
Technical indicators for BTC and ETH also reflect the market's reaction to the tariff announcement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 55 to 45, indicating a shift towards oversold territory (TradingView, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line (TradingView, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). For ETH, the RSI fell from 50 to 40, also indicating a move towards oversold conditions (TradingView, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). The MACD for ETH similarly showed a bearish crossover (TradingView, 2025-03-30 10:00 AM EST). The trading volume for BTC on Coinbase increased by 35% to 5 billion USD, while ETH's volume on Coinbase rose by 30% to 2.5 billion USD (Coinbase, 2025-03-30 10:30 AM EST). The on-chain metrics for BTC showed a significant increase in the number of transactions, rising from 250,000 to 300,000, indicating heightened activity (Glassnode, 2025-03-30 10:45 AM EST). The market's response to the tariffs also affected the BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT trading pairs on Kraken, with volumes increasing by 25% to 8 billion USD and 20% to 4 billion USD, respectively (Kraken, 2025-03-30 10:30 AM EST). The overall market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, continued to decline, reaching a score of 30, firmly in the 'Fear' category (Alternative.me, 2025-03-30 11:30 AM EST).
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.