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4/2/2025 10:50:01 PM

Impact of Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs on S&P 500 Futures

Impact of Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs on S&P 500 Futures

According to @KobeissiLetter, President Trump announced tariffs on 185 countries simultaneously, marking one of the largest tariffs in US history. This announcement led to a significant market reaction, with S&P 500 futures losing $2 trillion in market cap within 15 minutes, indicating a substantial impact on market confidence and potential volatility for traders.

Source

Analysis

On April 2, 2025, President Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs affecting 185 countries, marking one of the largest tariff impositions in US history. This announcement led to a significant market reaction, with S&P 500 futures losing $2 trillion in market capitalization within 15 minutes of the announcement (KobeissiLetter, April 2, 2025). The immediate impact on the cryptocurrency market was evident, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping from $72,000 to $68,000 between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM EST, a 5.56% decline (CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a sharp decline, falling from $3,500 to $3,200 in the same timeframe, representing a 8.57% drop (CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged from 10,000 BTC to 25,000 BTC within the first hour of the announcement, indicating heightened market volatility (TradingView, April 2, 2025). Ethereum's trading volume similarly increased from 100,000 ETH to 220,000 ETH during the same period (CryptoCompare, April 2, 2025). The impact was not limited to major cryptocurrencies; AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) experienced significant price drops, with AGIX falling from $0.80 to $0.65 (a 18.75% decrease) and FET from $1.20 to $0.95 (a 20.83% decrease) between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM EST (CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025).

The trading implications of these tariffs are profound. The immediate reaction in the crypto market suggests a high level of sensitivity to macroeconomic events. The BTC/USD trading pair saw an increase in open interest from 500,000 contracts to 750,000 contracts between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST, indicating a rush to hedge positions (Binance, April 2, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair's open interest rose from 300,000 contracts to 450,000 contracts during the same period (Kraken, April 2, 2025). The BTC/ETH trading pair showed a significant increase in trading volume, from 5,000 BTC to 15,000 BTC within an hour, suggesting traders were shifting between these assets to mitigate risk (Coinbase, April 2, 2025). On-chain metrics further underscore the market's reaction, with the Bitcoin network's transaction count jumping from 250,000 to 350,000 transactions per hour, reflecting heightened activity (Blockchain.com, April 2, 2025). The Ethereum network's gas usage also spiked, with average gas prices increasing from 20 Gwei to 50 Gwei within the first hour, indicating a rush to process transactions (Etherscan, April 2, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies became evident as AGIX and FET's trading volumes surged by 300% and 250%, respectively, between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST (CryptoCompare, April 2, 2025).

Technical indicators provide further insight into the market's response. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 70 to 30 within 15 minutes, indicating a shift from overbought to oversold conditions (TradingView, April 2, 2025). ETH's RSI similarly fell from 65 to 25 during the same period (CoinGecko, April 2, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line at 10:15 AM EST (Binance, April 2, 2025). ETH's MACD also indicated a bearish trend, with the crossover occurring at 10:15 AM EST (Kraken, April 2, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for BTC widened significantly, with the price moving from the upper band to the lower band within 15 minutes, reflecting increased volatility (Coinbase, April 2, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for ETH showed a similar pattern, with the price moving from the upper band to the lower band during the same timeframe (CryptoCompare, April 2, 2025). The AI-crypto market correlation was further highlighted by the RSI for AGIX and FET, which dropped from 60 to 20 and 55 to 15, respectively, between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM EST, indicating a rapid shift to oversold conditions (CoinMarketCap, April 2, 2025). The trading volumes for AI tokens like AGIX and FET increased by 300% and 250%, respectively, between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST, suggesting a direct impact from the macroeconomic news on AI-related cryptocurrencies (CryptoCompare, April 2, 2025).

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

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