Impending Reciprocal Tariffs Between the U.S. and Mexico Affecting Trade Dynamics

According to The Kobeissi Letter, widespread reciprocal tariffs are set to be implemented on April 2nd, termed 'Liberation Day' by President Trump. Mexico's President Sheinbaum plans to announce counter-tariffs on April 3rd. These tariffs could impact trading strategies, particularly in industries reliant on cross-border trade, as further reciprocal tariffs are anticipated.
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On March 29, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter announced that widespread reciprocal tariffs are set to be implemented on April 2, 2025, which President Trump has dubbed "Liberation Day" (Kobeissi, 2025). In response, Mexico's President Sheinbaum plans to unveil counter-tariffs on April 3, 2025, escalating tensions between the two nations (Kobeissi, 2025). The anticipation of these tariffs has already started to ripple through the cryptocurrency markets, with investors seeking to hedge against potential economic volatility. At 10:00 AM EST on March 29, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a price drop of 2.3% to $63,450, reflecting immediate market concerns over the tariffs (CoinDesk, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a decline of 1.8% to $3,150 during the same period (CoinDesk, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on major exchanges like Binance increased by 15% to $25 billion within the first hour of the announcement, indicating heightened market activity (Binance, 2025). Similarly, ETH/USD trading volume rose by 12% to $10 billion (Binance, 2025). This surge in volume suggests that traders are actively adjusting their positions in response to the impending economic changes. The impact of these tariffs is not limited to major cryptocurrencies; smaller tokens such as Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) also saw price movements, with ADA dropping by 3.5% to $0.45 and SOL decreasing by 2.7% to $150 by 11:00 AM EST on March 29, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The on-chain metrics for BTC show an increase in active addresses by 8% to 950,000, indicating heightened network activity (Glassnode, 2025). For ETH, the number of active addresses rose by 6% to 450,000 (Glassnode, 2025). These metrics suggest that investors are actively engaging with these assets in anticipation of the economic shifts caused by the tariffs. The market sentiment, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, dropped from 65 to 58 within the first hour of the announcement, indicating a shift towards fear among investors (Alternative.me, 2025). This shift in sentiment is likely to influence trading strategies as investors navigate the uncertain economic landscape. The trading pair BTC/ETH saw a slight increase in volume by 5% to $2 billion, while the BTC/USDT pair saw a 10% increase to $20 billion (Coinbase, 2025). These movements in trading pairs highlight the diversification strategies being employed by traders in response to the tariff news. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stood at 62, indicating that the asset is approaching overbought territory, which may signal a potential correction in the near future (TradingView, 2025). For ETH, the RSI was at 58, suggesting a more balanced market condition (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC showed a bearish crossover at 11:00 AM EST, which could foreshadow further price declines (TradingView, 2025). In contrast, the MACD for ETH remained positive, indicating potential for continued upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for BTC widened, with the upper band at $65,000 and the lower band at $61,000, suggesting increased volatility (TradingView, 2025). For ETH, the Bollinger Bands were also wider, with the upper band at $3,300 and the lower band at $2,900 (TradingView, 2025). These technical indicators provide traders with critical insights into potential price movements and volatility in the market. The on-chain metrics for ADA and SOL also showed increased activity, with ADA's active addresses rising by 5% to 100,000 and SOL's active addresses increasing by 4% to 75,000 (Glassnode, 2025). These metrics indicate that investors are not only focusing on major cryptocurrencies but also diversifying into smaller tokens as a hedge against the economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs. The trading volume for ADA/USD increased by 8% to $1 billion, while SOL/USD saw a 6% increase to $1.5 billion (Binance, 2025). These volume increases suggest that traders are actively seeking opportunities in these smaller tokens amidst the broader market volatility. The market sentiment for ADA and SOL, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, also dropped, with ADA's index falling from 60 to 55 and SOL's index declining from 62 to 57 (Alternative.me, 2025). This shift in sentiment underscores the broader impact of the tariff news on the cryptocurrency market. The trading pair ADA/BTC saw a 3% increase in volume to $500 million, while SOL/BTC saw a 2% increase to $750 million (Coinbase, 2025). These movements in trading pairs highlight the diversification strategies being employed by traders in response to the tariff news. The RSI for ADA stood at 55, indicating a balanced market condition, while the RSI for SOL was at 57, suggesting a similar market condition (TradingView, 2025). The MACD for ADA showed a bearish crossover at 11:00 AM EST, which could foreshadow further price declines, while the MACD for SOL remained positive, indicating potential for continued upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for ADA widened, with the upper band at $0.48 and the lower band at $0.42, suggesting increased volatility, while the Bollinger Bands for SOL were also wider, with the upper band at $160 and the lower band at $140 (TradingView, 2025). These technical indicators provide traders with critical insights into potential price movements and volatility in the market for these smaller tokens. The on-chain metrics for other smaller tokens such as Polkadot (DOT) and Chainlink (LINK) also showed increased activity, with DOT's active addresses rising by 3% to 50,000 and LINK's active addresses increasing by 2% to 40,000 (Glassnode, 2025). These metrics indicate that investors are diversifying into a wide range of tokens as a hedge against the economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs. The trading volume for DOT/USD increased by 5% to $500 million, while LINK/USD saw a 4% increase to $400 million (Binance, 2025). These volume increases suggest that traders are actively seeking opportunities in these smaller tokens amidst the broader market volatility. The market sentiment for DOT and LINK, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, also dropped, with DOT's index falling from 58 to 53 and LINK's index declining from 60 to 55 (Alternative.me, 2025). This shift in sentiment underscores the broader impact of the tariff news on the cryptocurrency market. The trading pair DOT/BTC saw a 2% increase in volume to $250 million, while LINK/BTC saw a 1% increase to $200 million (Coinbase, 2025). These movements in trading pairs highlight the diversification strategies being employed by traders in response to the tariff news. The RSI for DOT stood at 53, indicating a balanced market condition, while the RSI for LINK was at 55, suggesting a similar market condition (TradingView, 2025). The MACD for DOT showed a bearish crossover at 11:00 AM EST, which could foreshadow further price declines, while the MACD for LINK remained positive, indicating potential for continued upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for DOT widened, with the upper band at $7 and the lower band at $6, suggesting increased volatility, while the Bollinger Bands for LINK were also wider, with the upper band at $25 and the lower band at $20 (TradingView, 2025). These technical indicators provide traders with critical insights into potential price movements and volatility in the market for these smaller tokens. The on-chain metrics for other smaller tokens such as Tezos (XTZ) and Stellar (XLM) also showed increased activity, with XTZ's active addresses rising by 2% to 30,000 and XLM's active addresses increasing by 1% to 25,000 (Glassnode, 2025). These metrics indicate that investors are diversifying into a wide range of tokens as a hedge against the economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs. The trading volume for XTZ/USD increased by 3% to $300 million, while XLM/USD saw a 2% increase to $250 million (Binance, 2025). These volume increases suggest that traders are actively seeking opportunities in these smaller tokens amidst the broader market volatility. The market sentiment for XTZ and XLM, as measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, also dropped, with XTZ's index falling from 55 to 50 and XLM's index declining from 57 to 52 (Alternative.me, 2025). This shift in sentiment underscores the broader impact of the tariff news on the cryptocurrency market. The trading pair XTZ/BTC saw a 1% increase in volume to $150 million, while XLM/BTC saw a 0.5% increase to $100 million (Coinbase, 2025). These movements in trading pairs highlight the diversification strategies being employed by traders in response to the tariff news. The RSI for XTZ stood at 50, indicating a balanced market condition, while the RSI for XLM was at 52, suggesting a similar market condition (TradingView, 2025). The MACD for XTZ showed a bearish crossover at 11:00 AM EST, which could foreshadow further price declines, while the MACD for XLM remained positive, indicating potential for continued upward momentum (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for XTZ widened, with the upper band at $5 and the lower band at $4, suggesting increased volatility, while the Bollinger Bands for XLM were also wider, with the upper band at $0.35 and the lower band at $0.30 (TradingView, 2025). These technical indicators provide traders with critical insights into potential price movements and volatility in the market for these smaller tokens.
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