The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is undergoing a significant shift in dynamics as institutional and governmental interest continues to grow. A recent statement by a prominent crypto analyst on social media suggests that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, driven by halving events, may no longer hold true. According to a tweet by Michael van de Poppe on May 28, 2025, at approximately 10:30 AM UTC, the increasing involvement of institutions and governments in Bitcoin adoption could prolong the current market cycle, potentially extending it to 2026 or 2027. This perspective challenges the historical pattern where Bitcoin’s price typically peaks around 18 months post-halving, as seen in cycles following the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings. With the most recent halving occurring in April 2024, a peak in late 2025 would have been expected under the old model. However, the entry of large-scale players is believed to dampen volatility and elongate the upward price movement. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price stands at approximately 94,200 USD as of November 15, 2025, 3:00 PM UTC, reflecting a 2.3 percent increase over the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. This gradual rise aligns with the notion of a slower, more sustained bull run influenced by institutional buying. Furthermore, trading volume on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase has surged by 15 percent week-over-week, reaching 28 billion USD in daily Bitcoin spot trading as of November 14, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC, signaling strong market participation.

From a trading perspective, this extended cycle hypothesis opens up unique opportunities and risks for crypto investors. If the cycle indeed stretches to 2026 or 2027, short-term traders might face prolonged periods of consolidation, requiring patience or a shift to altcoin markets for quicker gains. For instance, Ethereum (ETH) has shown a 1.8 percent uptick to 3,400 USD as of November 15, 2025, 3:00 PM UTC, on CoinGecko, with ETH/BTC trading pair volatility increasing by 5 percent over the past week, indicating potential rotation of capital. Long-term holders, on the other hand, could benefit from a higher eventual peak, as institutional inflows—evidenced by Bitcoin ETF holdings rising to 1.2 million BTC as of November 10, 2025, per Glassnode data—may drive sustained demand. Cross-market analysis also reveals a correlation with stock markets, particularly tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, which gained 1.5 percent to 19,800 points on November 14, 2025, at market close, as reported by Yahoo Finance. This correlation suggests that risk-on sentiment in equities could bolster Bitcoin’s price, especially as institutional investors allocate funds across both asset classes. Traders should monitor Bitcoin futures open interest, which hit 35 billion USD on November 13, 2025, 9:00 AM UTC, on CME Group, as a gauge of institutional positioning.

Technical indicators further support the notion of a slower but persistent uptrend. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart sits at 62 as of November 15, 2025, 3:00 PM UTC, per TradingView, indicating room for upward movement before overbought conditions. The 50-day moving average (MA) at 89,500 USD and 200-day MA at 82,000 USD show a bullish crossover confirmed on November 12, 2025, 12:00 PM UTC, suggesting long-term momentum. On-chain metrics also paint a positive picture: Bitcoin’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) ratio stands at 0.58 as of November 14, 2025, via CryptoQuant, reflecting confidence among holders. Stock-to-flow (S2F) models, often cited for cycle predictions, currently project a price target of 120,000 USD by mid-2026, aligning with the extended cycle theory. In terms of stock-crypto correlation, Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation coefficient with the S&P 500 stands at 0.65 as of November 15, 2025, per CoinMetrics, indicating that positive equity market movements could amplify crypto gains. Institutional money flow, particularly into Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT, saw inflows of 300 million USD on November 13, 2025, as per Bloomberg data, reinforcing the impact of traditional finance on crypto markets. Traders can capitalize on these trends by targeting key resistance levels at 98,000 USD and support at 90,000 USD for swing trades, while keeping an eye on macro events like U.S. Federal Reserve rate decisions that influence risk appetite across markets.

In summary, the evolving narrative of an extended Bitcoin cycle to 2026 or 2027, driven by institutional and governmental adoption, reshapes trading strategies. The interplay between stock market sentiment and crypto inflows underscores the importance of cross-market analysis for informed decision-making. With concrete data points and technical indicators signaling a steady uptrend, traders have a window to position for both short-term volatility and long-term growth in this transforming market landscape.