According to @QCompounding, a new post spotlights Charlie Bilello’s chart on the S&P 500’s number of large down days, a gauge traders use to assess selloff intensity and realized volatility for risk calibration. Source: @QCompounding; Charlie Bilello. For trading, a higher frequency of large down days typically aligns with elevated realized volatility and wider intraday ranges, favoring reduced gross/net exposure, shorter holding periods, and hedges such as SPX puts or VIX calls. Source: Cboe; CME Group. For crypto, equity stress tends to lift cross-asset correlations; since 2020, BTC and ETH have shown increased correlation with US equities, heightening downside transmission risk during sharp S&P 500 declines. Source: IMF (2022); BIS (2022). Traders should watch for clustering of large down days and confirm with VIX term structure and market breadth to adjust leverage, stop-loss thresholds, and hedge ratios. Source: Engle (1982); Cboe.

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 has experienced a notably low number of large down days in 2025, as highlighted in a recent chart shared via Twitter (source: @QCompounding, June 16, 2025). This reduction in sharp declines signals increased market stability, which historically leads to lower volatility across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH. Traders should monitor this trend, as a calm equity environment often dampens volatility and trading opportunities in the crypto market, affecting short-term momentum strategies.