Lawrence Lepard: Markets Wrong on Bitcoin Thesis

Lawrence Lepard told @CryptoMichNL that crypto Twitter has the Fed all wrong and that markets are betting on fiscal discipline that will never arrive.

The one event that would kill the Bitcoin thesis is governments worldwide stopping deficit spending, something Lepard says has not happened in any trader’s lifetime and will not start now. His working model puts BTC at roughly $180 within two years from the current $60K area, framing the asset as monetary debasement insurance rather than a short-term trade.

With price testing lower Bollinger support at $64345.78 while the EMA50 resistance at $65015.89 caps upside and the MACD death cross at -98.17 confirms bearish momentum, a measured retracement toward the EMA200 at $63793.08 looks probable before any sustained recovery, keeping the 4-hour structure firmly negative until fiscal reality reasserts itself.

That same dynamic underpins every long-term BTC price prediction and explains why capitulation here is simply a wager that politicians will suddenly embrace restraint they have avoided for decades.