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5/9/2025 4:54:54 AM

Long Bitcoin Short Gold: Trading Analysis Highlights Shift from Physical to Digital Store of Value

Long Bitcoin Short Gold: Trading Analysis Highlights Shift from Physical to Digital Store of Value

According to André Dragosch, PhD (@Andre_Dragosch), the ongoing trend of human innovation increasingly dilutes and reduces the monetary value of traditional physical stores-of-value like gold. This supports a long Bitcoin and short Gold strategy, indicating a shift toward digital assets as a preferred store of value for traders. The analysis suggests that Bitcoin's growing market adoption and resilience make it an attractive hedge against the declining relevance of gold in modern portfolios. Traders are advised to monitor macroeconomic factors and on-chain data as Bitcoin's dominance affects both crypto and traditional asset markets (Source: Twitter/@Andre_Dragosch).

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Analysis

The cryptocurrency and stock markets are often influenced by bold statements and macroeconomic perspectives from influential figures. On May 9, 2025, Andre Dragosch, PhD, a respected voice in the crypto space, shared a striking opinion on social media, stating, 'Human ingenuity will always find a way to dilute and demonetize physical stores-of-value. Long Bitcoin / short Gold.' This statement, posted at approximately 8:00 AM UTC, sparked discussions among traders about the future of traditional assets like gold compared to digital assets like Bitcoin. As of that date, Bitcoin was trading at around $62,300 on major exchanges like Binance, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $28 billion, reflecting robust market activity as reported by CoinMarketCap. Meanwhile, gold futures (GC) on the COMEX were priced at $2,340 per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.3% for the day, according to data from Bloomberg Terminal. This juxtaposition of Bitcoin and gold as stores of value comes at a time when inflation concerns and monetary policy debates are rife, with the S&P 500 index hovering near 5,200 points, up 0.2% for the week ending May 9, 2025, per Yahoo Finance. Dragosch’s commentary aligns with a growing narrative that digital assets may outpace traditional hedges in an era of technological advancement and central bank digital currency discussions. The broader stock market context on this date showed mixed sentiment, with tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.4% to 16,400 points, suggesting risk-on behavior that often correlates with Bitcoin price movements.

From a trading perspective, Dragosch’s 'long Bitcoin, short gold' stance offers actionable insights for crypto and cross-market traders. As of May 9, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase saw a 1.2% uptick to $62,800 within two hours of the tweet, accompanied by a spike in spot trading volume to $1.5 billion for the BTC/USD pair, as per Coinbase data. This suggests heightened retail interest possibly triggered by such influential commentary. Conversely, gold ETFs like GLD saw a marginal outflow, with trading volume dropping by 0.5% to 6.2 million shares by 12:00 PM UTC, according to ETF.com. For crypto traders, this presents a potential opportunity to capitalize on Bitcoin’s momentum, particularly in pairs like BTC/USD and BTC/ETH, where Ethereum traded at $3,010 with a 24-hour volume of $12 billion on Binance. Moreover, the stock market’s risk-on sentiment, evidenced by the Nasdaq’s gains, could drive further institutional flows into Bitcoin, as seen in past correlations during tech rallies. Traders might also consider shorting gold futures or related ETFs as a hedge, given the bearish outlook Dragosch implies. However, risks remain, as sudden shifts in U.S. Federal Reserve policy or inflation data releases could bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal, potentially reversing Bitcoin’s short-term gains.

Technically, Bitcoin’s price action on May 9, 2025, showed bullish signals. At 2:00 PM UTC, BTC broke above its 50-day moving average of $61,500 on the 4-hour chart, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing to 58, indicating room for further upside before overbought conditions, as observed on TradingView. On-chain metrics supported this, with Glassnode reporting a 3% increase in Bitcoin wallet addresses holding over 0.1 BTC, reaching 3.2 million by 3:00 PM UTC, suggesting growing adoption. Gold, on the other hand, faced resistance at $2,350 per ounce, with declining volume on futures contracts signaling waning interest, per CME Group data at 1:00 PM UTC. Cross-market correlations further highlight Bitcoin’s alignment with tech stocks; the correlation coefficient between BTC and the Nasdaq stood at 0.78 for the past 30 days, per CoinMetrics, reinforcing the risk-on narrative. Institutional money flow also tilted toward crypto, with Bitcoin spot ETFs like IBIT recording net inflows of $120 million on May 8, 2025, as reported by Farside Investors, while gold ETFs saw net outflows of $30 million over the same period. This divergence underscores a potential shift in capital allocation, favoring digital assets over traditional ones.

In the context of stock-crypto dynamics, Dragosch’s perspective may reflect broader institutional sentiment. The S&P 500’s stability and Nasdaq’s gains on May 9, 2025, suggest that equity market confidence could spill over into Bitcoin, especially as crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR) gained 2.1% to $1,280 by 11:00 AM UTC, with trading volume up 15% to 1.8 million shares, per Yahoo Finance. This indicates that stock market strength can amplify Bitcoin’s appeal as a speculative asset. For traders, monitoring crypto ETF inflows and tech stock performance will be crucial to gauge sustained momentum in Bitcoin, while keeping an eye on gold’s reaction to macroeconomic data remains a prudent risk management strategy.

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André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro

@Andre_Dragosch

European Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.