In the ever-evolving world of financial markets, understanding the right references for asset valuation is crucial for traders and investors alike. According to Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent crypto analyst, one of the best examples of misrepresentation stems from using incorrect benchmarks when evaluating assets. He highlights the Dutch stock market compared to the M2 money supply, which remains down a staggering 70% from its all-time high as of December 17, 2025. This perspective extends to assets like gold, where similar patterns emerge. While charts versus the USD show new all-time highs, van de Poppe argues that such analyses can be misleading. Instead, focusing on these alternative reference parameters reveals a clearer picture: no imminent recession or bear market on the horizon. This insight is particularly relevant for cryptocurrency traders, as it underscores the importance of broader economic indicators in assessing BTC, ETH, and other digital assets amid stock market fluctuations.

Bridging Stock Market Insights to Crypto Trading Strategies

For crypto enthusiasts, the correlation between traditional stock markets and digital currencies offers valuable trading opportunities. The Dutch stock market's performance against M2 supply illustrates how inflation and money supply growth can distort nominal highs in USD terms. In the crypto space, Bitcoin (BTC) has often mirrored gold's behavior as a store of value, with both assets experiencing inflated USD prices due to expansive monetary policies. As of recent market observations, BTC has been trading in a range-bound pattern, with support levels around $90,000 and resistance near $100,000, influenced by global liquidity measures similar to M2. Traders should consider on-chain metrics, such as Bitcoin's realized capitalization adjusted for M2 growth, which might show the asset is undervalued relative to money supply expansion. This approach helps in identifying entry points during dips, especially when stock indices like the AEX (Dutch stock index) show weakness against real economic backdrops. Institutional flows into crypto ETFs have surged, with over $2 billion in inflows reported in the last quarter of 2025, signaling confidence despite apparent stock market ATHs in nominal terms. By integrating these factors, swing traders can capitalize on cross-market correlations, using tools like RSI and MACD to time trades in pairs such as BTC/USD or ETH/BTC.

Market Sentiment and Institutional Flows in a No-Recession Scenario

Delving deeper into market sentiment, van de Poppe's analysis suggests optimism for both stocks and crypto, as reference parameters like M2-adjusted valuations indicate sustained growth without bearish signals. For instance, gold's performance versus M2 echoes Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, where real value appreciation lags behind nominal gains due to currency debasement. Crypto traders can leverage this by monitoring trading volumes on exchanges; recent data shows BTC spot volumes exceeding 500,000 BTC daily, with a 24-hour change of +2.5% in late 2025 sessions. This volume spike correlates with reduced fear in the stock market, as evidenced by the VIX index hovering below 15, pointing to low volatility and potential upward momentum. Broader implications include increased adoption of AI-driven trading bots that analyze M2 impacts on altcoins like SOL and AVAX, which have seen 15-20% gains in M2-adjusted terms. Investors should watch for resistance breaks in ETH, currently testing $3,500, as positive stock market narratives could drive altcoin rallies. Overall, this framework encourages a holistic view, blending stock insights with crypto metrics for informed decision-making.

Exploring trading opportunities further, the absence of recession signals opens doors for leveraged positions in crypto derivatives. Futures markets on platforms like Binance have shown open interest in BTC perpetuals climbing to $25 billion, reflecting bullish sentiment tied to expansive M2 policies. Traders might employ strategies like longing BTC when Dutch stock indices rebound against M2 benchmarks, anticipating spillover effects. Key indicators include the 200-day moving average for gold, which, when adjusted for money supply, supports a bullish thesis for correlated assets. In summary, by prioritizing these reference parameters, traders can avoid common pitfalls in valuation, positioning themselves for profitable moves in an interconnected financial landscape. This analysis not only highlights current market dynamics but also equips readers with actionable insights for navigating stock-crypto correlations effectively.