According to Charlie Bilello, US Retail Sales have risen 3.9% year over year while US Consumer Sentiment has fallen to near record lows, creating the widest gap on record between spending and sentiment (video referenced), source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 28, 2025. The retail sales growth cited is tracked by the U.S. Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report, a primary measure of consumer spending momentum, source: U.S. Census Bureau. The sentiment data is measured by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a widely followed gauge of household outlook used by traders, source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. For crypto and broader risk assets, elevated post-2020 correlations between Bitcoin and equities mean macro data shocks in consumption and sentiment can transmit to BTC and ETH price action, source: International Monetary Fund analysis on crypto–equity correlation.

According to Charlie Bilello, US Retail Sales increased 3.8% over the past year as US Consumer Sentiment plunged to near record lows, marking the widest divergence between spending and sentiment he has observed; source: Charlie Bilello. According to Charlie Bilello, he shared a video with additional context on this macro divergence to inform market watchers; source: Charlie Bilello.

According to @charliebilello, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index dropped to 50.3, the second-lowest reading since 1952, source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers and @charliebilello. At the same time, U.S. Retail Sales grew 4.8 percent year over year and outpaced inflation by 1.8 percent, source: U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Retail Trade and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI as cited by @charliebilello. Bilello notes this is the widest on-record gap between what consumers report and what they spend, source: @charliebilello. For positioning, crypto traders can contextualize this macro divergence given IMF research showing BTC and ETH increasingly move with U.S. equities and global risk appetite, source: International Monetary Fund research on crypto and equity market correlation.