According to @Ashcryptoreal, ongoing US-China trade negotiations are the primary drag on crypto and a deal announcement today could trigger a pump, adding that BTC should already be above 130,000 dollars relative to U.S. stocks. source: X post by @Ashcryptoreal on Oct 30, 2025. Empirical research finds BTC has become more correlated with U.S. equities since 2020, indicating that de-escalation in trade policy can support risk assets including crypto. source: International Monetary Fund blog Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks 2022 and Bank for International Settlements Quarterly Review 2022. During the January 2020 Phase One U.S.-China deal signing, U.S. equity benchmarks advanced on de-escalation headlines, illustrating a risk-on pattern that studies show can affect BTC through higher equity correlation. source: Reuters report on the Phase One trade deal signing on January 15, 2020 and International Monetary Fund blog Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks 2022.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 has recorded four drawdowns of at least -20% over the last 10 years, the most on record (source: @KobeissiLetter). The source notes that comparable 10-year windows before 2020 typically saw only 1–2 such drawdowns, and there were none during the 7–10 year period ending in the late 1990s (source: @KobeissiLetter). @KobeissiLetter attributes the shift to markets becoming more reactive to headlines and macroeconomic changes, resulting in massive swings in asset prices and urging traders to capitalize on this volatility (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, President Trump stated there is "virtually no inflation" and that "stock markets are continually hitting record highs" on Oct 6, 2025. Source: @KobeissiLetter. The update is a headline post without CPI, PCE, or index level data to verify the claims, so traders can treat it as a sentiment-driven input rather than a data release. Source: @KobeissiLetter. For crypto, such risk-on rhetoric around low inflation and record equities is a sentiment cue traders track during U.S. hours for potential spillover to BTC and ETH price action. Source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to @EricBalchunas, despite warnings of a potential US government shutdown, the S&P 500 reaction was described as 'Meh' at the time of his post, signaling muted immediate equity impact, source: Eric Balchunas, X, Sep 30, 2025. The post indicates equities were not aggressively repricing shutdown risk at that moment and provided no crypto-specific signals, source: Eric Balchunas, X, Sep 30, 2025. For crypto market participants, especially in BTC and ETH, the takeaway is to monitor cross-asset sentiment and price action for any delayed spillover rather than headlines alone, source: Eric Balchunas, X, Sep 30, 2025.

According to Eric Balchunas, recent headlines have shifted focus from stocks and bonds to the US dollar, now targeting dollar strength as a policy concern (source: Twitter). Historically, traders who faded similar fear-driven headlines in stocks and bonds have found success. For UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) traders, monitoring the effectiveness of headline-driven moves on the dollar remains crucial, especially as market reactions can influence risk sentiment and liquidity in crypto markets. Persistent dollar strength often leads to downward pressure on major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH due to tighter global liquidity. Active traders should closely track both macro policy headlines and UUP technicals to anticipate potential crypto market impacts.