According to Michaël van de Poppe, the Federal Reserve (FED) is a core pillar determining whether markets are in a 'risk-on' or 'risk-off' state, which is crucial for cryptocurrency investors. In a discussion highlighted in his post, he confers with @DTAPCAP, noted for recent successes with Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of Web3 infrastructure companies. This conversation underscores the direct impact of macroeconomic policies set by the FED on the performance and investment climate of the Web3 ecosystem, suggesting traders should monitor FED actions as a key indicator for market sentiment shifts.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a significant inverse correlation is being observed between the US Dollar and Bitcoin (BTC). The US Dollar has experienced its worst start to a year since 1973, declining 11% year-to-date. Concurrently, Bitcoin's price has surged by 55% since April 2025, reaching a new record high. The analysis suggests this inverse relationship is not a coincidence, indicating that dollar weakness may be a primary driver for the current cryptocurrency bull run.

According to @KobeissiLetter, a significant market dynamic is unfolding as Bitcoin (BTC) has surged over 55% from its April 2025 low to reach a new record high of $115,000. This price rally coincides with the US Dollar experiencing its worst start to a year since 1973, falling nearly 11% in six months. The analysis suggests this inverse correlation is not a coincidence, providing a key macroeconomic signal for traders that a weakening dollar may be fueling Bitcoin's upward momentum.

According to @ai_9684xtpa, large Ethereum holders, known as whales and sharks, have significantly increased their holdings, providing strong underlying support for the asset's price. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 100,000 ETH have accumulated a net total of 1.49 million ETH over the past 30 days, bringing their total control to 26.98% of the supply (source: Santiment). This accumulation contrasts with retail profit-taking and a minor $2.2 million net outflow from U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, which ended a 19-day inflow streak (source: Farside Investors). The price of Ether (ETH) received a major boost from positive macroeconomic developments, including a draft U.S.–China trade agreement and a cooler-than-expected U.S. CPI report for May (source: U.S. Labor Department). These catalysts propelled ETH to an intraday high of $2,873. Technical analysis indicates that ETH is holding support around the $2,750–$2,760 band, with traders now eyeing the $2,900 and psychological $3,000 resistance levels.

According to @GreeksLive, Bitcoin (BTC) is entering July with a historically bullish seasonal trend, having posted an average increase of around 7% in Julys over the past decade, as per CoinGlass data. Market maker Wintermute also found that July is the only month since 2022 to combine strong gains with subdued investor sentiment. However, current derivatives data paints a picture of indifference, with BTC and Ethereum (ETH) futures open interest remaining flat. Furthermore, funding rates for several altcoins, including XRP, Solana (SOL), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH), have turned negative, indicating a bearish bias. Traders should monitor key upcoming macro events, particularly the U.S. payrolls report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and impact the market. Despite recent spot BTC ETF net outflows of $342.2 million, corporate treasuries showed strong accumulation by purchasing 131,000 BTC in the second quarter, an 18% increase that outpaced ETF demand growth. Upcoming token unlocks for Ethena (ENA), Aptos (APT), and Arbitrum (ARB) could introduce additional selling pressure.

According to @rovercrc, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, a move that was widely anticipated by the market. The Fed's latest projections indicate lowered economic growth (GDP at 1.4%) and higher inflation (Core PCE at 3.1%) for the year. While policymakers still foresee 50 basis points in rate cuts for 2025, they project a slower pace of easing in subsequent years, as per the official press release. Bitcoin (BTC) showed minimal reaction, holding around $104,200 following the decision. Traders are now focused on two major upcoming events: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony and the release of the Core PCE price index. Analysts at ING suggest that clarity on inflation may not come until December, potentially leading to a single 50bp rate cut this year if the job market weakens. Conversely, Chris Weston of Pepperstone noted that dovish signals during Powell's testimony could fuel risk-taking and benefit BTC.

According to @AltcoinGordon, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioned to rally towards a new all-time high, driven by a combination of positive macroeconomic shifts, increasing regulatory clarity, and strong market sentiment. A Coinbase Research report highlights an improved U.S. economic outlook, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker jumping to 3.8%, which eases recession fears. This, coupled with a record $21.9 trillion U.S. M2 money supply and soaring equity markets, is expected to channel capital into alternative assets like BTC. Key regulatory developments, including the progression of the GENIUS (stablecoin) and CLARITY (market structure) bills, are providing a clearer framework for the industry. Furthermore, the SEC is reviewing over 80 crypto ETF applications, with potential decisions as early as July, which could act as a major catalyst. The source also notes that while corporate adoption of crypto is rising, altcoins may lag BTC unless they receive specific catalysts like individual ETF approvals.

According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioned for a potential move toward an all-time high, supported by strong macroeconomic tailwinds. Key drivers include U.S. equity indexes reaching record highs, suggesting increased investor risk appetite that could benefit alternative assets like BTC. A significant factor is the U.S. M2 money supply, which hit a record $21.94 trillion at the end of May, indicating massive liquidity that could flow into financial markets. The analysis also cites historical data showing July is a seasonally strong month for Bitcoin, with average gains of around 7%. However, there is a counter-narrative, as sources like TIOmarkets suggest that rapid M2 growth could fuel inflation, potentially pressuring the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts and creating a less favorable environment for risk assets. Current data shows BTC trading around $107,885, just below its recent 24-hour high of over $109,656.

According to @FoxNews, major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin (BTC), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced a rally following comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinting at new trade deals before the July 9 tariff deadline. The source reports that Bitcoin gained over 1%, briefly surpassing $109,000, while XRP and Solana (SOL) each rose over 2%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) saw a 3% increase. This positive market sentiment is linked to Bessent's statement that a failure to secure deals by July 9 would result in higher tariffs being reinstated on August 1, per a Reuters report of his CNN interview. The easing of trade tensions has also led to a significant drop in U.S. recession odds for 2025 on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, which have fallen to 22%, the lowest since late February. This marks a reversal from April when recession fears peaked after President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement caused BTC to drop to $75,000.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, the cryptocurrency market is showing mixed signals as Bitcoin (BTC) holds firm above $107,000, while major altcoins exhibit signs of profit-taking. The source notes that Dogecoin (DOGE) fell nearly 4%, and Ether (ETH), after briefly surpassing $2,800, is also cooling off, alongside losses in XRP, BNB, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). The recent wave of crypto-related Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) is significantly influencing market sentiment. Aaron Brogan of Brogan Law highlights that Circle's (USDC) successful $1.05 billion IPO, which saw its market cap surge to $43.9 billion, has spurred other firms like Gemini and Bullish to pursue public listings. Brogan suggests Circle's outperformance could be due to favorable public market comparisons, potential regulatory clarity from the proposed GENIUS Act for stablecoins, and the lucrative nature of holding U.S. Treasury bills as collateral in a rising yield environment. Broader macroeconomic factors are also providing support. Augustine Fan from SignalPlus stated that mainstream sentiment has noticeably improved following Circle's IPO and the trend of companies adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy. Jeffrey Ding, Chief Analyst at HashKey Group, pointed to progress in U.S.-China trade talks and softer inflation data as encouraging signs for risk assets. Furthermore, Kraken economist Thomas Perfumo noted that the adoption of structural vehicles like spot ETFs is absorbing supply rapidly within a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment.

According to @rovercrc, major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin (BTC), XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana (SOL) experienced a rally following comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In an interview with CNN, Bessent indicated that the U.S. is close to finalizing trade deals ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline, which could prevent the re-imposition of higher tariffs announced on April 2. The report notes that Bitcoin gained over 1% to top $109,000, while XRP and SOL rose over 2%, and DOGE increased by 3%. This positive macroeconomic development has eased fears of a trade war escalation, which had previously driven BTC down to $75,000 after the initial tariff announcement. Bessent warned that if deals are not made, tariffs will revert to higher levels on August 1, as cited by Reuters, making the potential agreements a significant catalyst for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

According to @CryptoMichNL, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioned to reach a new all-time high, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions. The analysis highlights that softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data, a record U.S. M2 money supply, and soaring equity markets are driving capital into riskier assets like BTC. The report cites Matt Mena of 21Shares, who suggests the cooling Consumer Price Index (CPI) could be a major bullish catalyst, putting a $200,000 price target for Bitcoin by year-end "firmly in play." Additional factors supporting this outlook include historical price strength for BTC in July and concerns over rising U.S. national debt, as noted by Ray Dalio. Following the CPI report, traders have increased their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin (BTC) surged past the $110,000 level for the first time since June 11, driven by a significant inflow of over $407.78 million into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on a single Wednesday, pushing the lifetime total to $49.04 billion according to SoSoValue. This upward momentum has lifted the broader crypto market, including major tokens like XRP (XRP), Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). Notably, memecoins BONK and FARTCOIN rallied over 20%, indicating a heightened risk appetite among investors. Traders are now watching the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich suggests could be a major catalyst or obstacle for BTC testing its historical high of around $112,000. The rally is further supported by strong macroeconomic tailwinds, including record highs in U.S. equity indexes, a record U.S. M2 money supply of $21.9 trillion, and concerns about rising U.S. government debt, as highlighted by Ray Dalio, which could drive more capital into alternative assets like Bitcoin. Historically, July has also been a seasonally strong month for BTC, with average gains of around 7%.

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioned to reach a new all-time high in July, with its price currently around $109,000, less than 3% below its previous peak. This potential surge is supported by strong macroeconomic tailwinds, including record highs in U.S. equity markets and a U.S. M2 money supply that has expanded to a record $21.9 trillion, pushing capital toward alternative assets. Further bolstering this outlook, investment bank Standard Chartered has declared the typical Bitcoin halving cycle 'dead' due to strong institutional support. Geoff Kendrick, the bank's head of digital assets research, reiterated a year-end BTC price forecast of $200,000 and a Q3 target of $135,000. The report cites robust inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and renewed corporate treasury demand, which collectively accounted for 245,000 BTC in Q2, as key drivers for the bullish momentum.

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioned to potentially reach a new all-time high this July, supported by a combination of powerful macroeconomic factors and bullish technical indicators. The analysis points to record-high U.S. equity markets potentially pushing capital into alternative assets like BTC, a record U.S. M2 money supply of $21.9 trillion increasing liquidity, and rising U.S. government debt, which may drive investors to seek assets that preserve purchasing power. From a technical standpoint, a key volatility indicator using the Bollinger Band spread has generated a bullish signal as its associated MACD histogram turned positive, a pattern that has historically preceded major price rallies. With Bitcoin trading around $109,000, just under its previous peak, and July being a seasonally strong month with average gains of 7%, the outlook suggests a potential surge is ahead.

According to @Pentosh1, Bitcoin (BTC) is positioned to reach a new all-time high, currently trading around $109,000, driven by strong macroeconomic tailwinds. These factors include U.S. equity indexes hitting record highs and a surging U.S. M2 money supply, which pushes capital into riskier assets like BTC. Hedge fund founder Ray Dalio noted on X that increasing U.S. government debt could further enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a store of value. Historically, July is also a seasonally strong month for Bitcoin, averaging 7% gains. However, despite the high price, NYDIG Research highlights that BTC's volatility is trending lower. This low volatility environment, attributed to increased institutional demand and sophisticated strategies, makes options trading relatively inexpensive. NYDIG Research suggests this creates a cost-effective opportunity for traders to position for directional moves ahead of key catalysts in July, such as regulatory decisions and policy updates.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June has impacted cryptocurrency markets and Federal Reserve policy expectations. The report revealed nonfarm payrolls grew by 147,000, surpassing forecasts of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%, as stated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the minutes following the release, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dipped from a one-month high of over $110,000 to just under $109,000. This market reaction is tied to shifting expectations for a Fed rate cut; traders' odds for the Fed to hold rates steady in July soared from 75% to 95% post-report, according to CME FedWatch data. While strong employment suggests a patient Fed, a counter-signal appeared in average hourly earnings, which rose only 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast. Separately, the author outlines a vision for an 'Automated Abundance Economy,' where advanced AI and robotics could make most human labor unnecessary, with the resulting wealth distributed through a universal basic income (UBI), which he describes as a dividend from automation.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. June jobs report significantly exceeded expectations, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 147,000 against a forecast of 110,000, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This strong economic data, coupled with a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, has diminished prospects for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, with traders pricing in a 95% chance of rates holding steady in July, up from 75% before the report. In the immediate aftermath, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) saw a modest dip to just under $109,000. In contrast, U.S. stock index futures rose, reinforcing the theme of 'U.S. exceptionalism' as the Nasdaq continues to outperform global indices. Analysts like Bruce J Clark of Informa Global Markets note this data strengthens the U.S. dollar, while the historical positive correlation between U.S. equities and BTC could be a long-term positive for the crypto market.

According to @QCompounding, MicroStrategy's (MSTR) perpetual preferred shares are rallying on speculation the company may be added to the S&P 500 index. The potential inclusion follows Bitcoin's (BTC) record-high monthly close, which, according to analyst Jeff Walton, boosted MSTR's quarterly earnings per share to approximately $39.50, satisfying a key requirement for index eligibility. The source notes that while the official announcement is not expected until September, MSTR stock rose 5% and its perpetual preferred shares saw significant gains, with STRK climbing 15%. This market activity is seen as potential front-running of the inclusion news. Concurrently, Bitcoin is trading near $109,000, just under its all-time high, supported by strong macroeconomic tailwinds. These factors include record highs in U.S. equity markets, a record $21.9 trillion M2 money supply, and rising government debt concerns highlighted by Ray Dalio, which collectively drive capital into riskier assets like BTC.

According to @rovercrc, recent softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data has significantly improved the outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), with some analysts now seeing a $200,000 price by year-end as "firmly in play." Matt Mena, a strategist at 21Shares, stated that the cooling Consumer Price Index (CPI) strengthens the case for Federal Reserve policy easing, with traders now pricing in approximately two rate cuts this year. Mena suggests that if BTC breaks the $105K-$110K range with conviction, it could move to $120K and potentially hit a $138.5K target by the end of summer. Additional bullish factors cited include a record U.S. M2 money supply, warnings from Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio about rising U.S. debt levels, and positive historical seasonality for Bitcoin in July. These converging macroeconomic tailwinds are creating an environment where, as Mena noted, institutional confidence and ETF inflows could accelerate.