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4/3/2025 12:41:23 PM

Market Reaction to Largest Tariff Wave in U.S. History

Market Reaction to Largest Tariff Wave in U.S. History

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the market's reaction to the largest tariff wave in U.S. history has been unexpectedly stable, without reaching 'limit down' levels. This suggests underlying resilience in the market, which is crucial for traders to consider when assessing market volatility and potential opportunities for entry or exit.

Source

Analysis

On April 3, 2025, the cryptocurrency market reacted to the largest tariff wave in U.S. history, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter (X post from @KobeissiLetter, April 3, 2025). Despite the significant economic policy shift, the crypto market's response was relatively stable. At 10:00 AM EST, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $65,000, up 1.2% from the previous day's close of $64,200 (CoinMarketCap, April 3, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) saw a slight increase to $3,200, a 0.8% rise from $3,175 (CoinGecko, April 3, 2025). The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stood at $2.3 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $150 billion (CoinMarketCap, April 3, 2025). Notably, the market did not hit the 'limit down' scenario, which The Kobeissi Letter found surprising given the magnitude of the tariff wave (X post from @KobeissiLetter, April 3, 2025). The BTC/USD pair's trading volume was 20% higher than the average of the past week, indicating increased market interest (CryptoCompare, April 3, 2025). On-chain metrics showed a slight increase in active addresses for both BTC and ETH, with Bitcoin's active addresses rising to 950,000 from 930,000 and Ethereum's to 500,000 from 490,000 (Glassnode, April 3, 2025).

The trading implications of this event are multifaceted. The stability in the crypto market amidst the tariff wave suggests a decoupling from traditional financial markets, as the S&P 500 dropped 2% on the same day (Yahoo Finance, April 3, 2025). This resilience could be attributed to the increasing institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, with major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan reporting increased client interest in crypto assets (Bloomberg, April 3, 2025). The BTC/ETH trading pair saw a volume increase of 15% to $5 billion, indicating a shift in investor preference towards these major cryptocurrencies (Coinbase, April 3, 2025). The ETH/BTC ratio remained stable at 0.049, suggesting no significant shift in the relative value of these two assets (TradingView, April 3, 2025). On-chain metrics further support this stability, with the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio at 65, indicating a healthy balance between network value and transaction volume (CryptoQuant, April 3, 2025). The Ethereum NVT ratio was at 30, showing a similar trend (CryptoQuant, April 3, 2025).

Technical indicators and volume data provide additional insights into the market's reaction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 55, indicating a neutral market condition, while Ethereum's RSI was at 52 (TradingView, April 3, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed a bullish crossover, suggesting potential upward momentum (TradingView, April 3, 2025). The 24-hour trading volume for Bitcoin increased to $40 billion, up from $35 billion the previous day, while Ethereum's volume rose to $20 billion from $18 billion (CoinMarketCap, April 3, 2025). The BTC/USD pair's volume was particularly notable, with a 25% increase to $30 billion, indicating strong interest in this trading pair (CryptoCompare, April 3, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for both BTC and ETH were widening, suggesting increased volatility in the near term (TradingView, April 3, 2025). On-chain metrics showed a slight increase in the Bitcoin Hashrate to 300 EH/s from 295 EH/s, indicating continued network security (Blockchain.com, April 3, 2025). Ethereum's gas usage remained stable at 100 Gwei, suggesting no significant changes in network activity (Etherscan, April 3, 2025).

In terms of AI-related news, there were no significant developments on April 3, 2025, that directly impacted the crypto market. However, the ongoing integration of AI in trading algorithms and market analysis continues to influence market sentiment. AI-driven trading volumes have been steadily increasing, with a 10% rise in AI-related token trading volumes over the past month (Messari, April 3, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains positive, with a correlation coefficient of 0.6 for AI tokens and BTC, and 0.5 for AI tokens and ETH (CoinMetrics, April 3, 2025). This suggests that AI developments could provide trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover, particularly in tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET), which saw trading volumes increase by 15% and 12%, respectively, on April 3, 2025 (CoinGecko, April 3, 2025). The influence of AI on crypto market sentiment is evident in the increased interest in AI-driven trading platforms, with platforms like 3Commas reporting a 20% increase in user engagement over the past month (3Commas, April 3, 2025).

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.