The upcoming release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, scheduled for June 11, 2025, is generating significant buzz across financial markets, as it is the last major inflation data point before the Federal Reserve’s June meeting. According to a recent update from The Kobeissi Letter on social media platform X, expectations for the Core CPI number have risen to 2.9%, as reported by Kalshi on June 10, 2025. If confirmed, this would mark the first increase in Core CPI inflation since January 2025, signaling a potential shift in inflationary pressures. This data is critical for traders as it could influence the Fed’s stance on interest rates, which directly impacts risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. Higher inflation may prompt a more hawkish Fed, potentially tightening monetary policy and reducing liquidity in markets. For crypto traders, this event is particularly noteworthy because Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets often react to macroeconomic indicators as they are increasingly viewed as hedges against inflation or risk-off assets during tightening cycles. As of June 10, 2025, at 15:00 UTC, BTC is trading at approximately $69,500 on Binance, showing a mild 0.8% uptick over the past 24 hours, with trading volume reaching 18,000 BTC on the BTC/USDT pair, per CoinMarketCap data. The stock market, meanwhile, saw the S&P 500 gain 0.5% to close at 5,350 points on June 10, 2025, at 20:00 UTC, reflecting cautious optimism ahead of the CPI release, according to Bloomberg terminal data. This interplay between inflation expectations, stock market sentiment, and crypto price action underscores the importance of tomorrow’s report for cross-market trading strategies.

From a trading perspective, the potential rise in Core CPI to 2.9% could create short-term volatility across both stock and crypto markets. If the Fed signals a hawkish response to rising inflation, we might see a risk-off sentiment dominate, pushing down equities and cryptocurrencies alike. For instance, a tightening of monetary policy often correlates with reduced institutional inflows into risk assets. On June 10, 2025, at 16:00 UTC, Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $3,650 on Coinbase, with a 24-hour volume of 9,500 ETH on the ETH/USDT pair, showing relative stability, as reported by CoinGecko. However, a higher-than-expected CPI could trigger a sell-off, potentially driving ETH below its key support at $3,500. Conversely, if the CPI data comes in softer than 2.9%, it could bolster risk appetite, benefiting both the Nasdaq, which closed at 17,100 points with a 0.6% gain on June 10, 2025, at 20:00 UTC per Yahoo Finance, and major cryptos like BTC and ETH. Crypto traders should also monitor institutional money flow between stocks and digital assets, as a hawkish Fed might divert capital from crypto back to safer assets like bonds. Additionally, crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) saw a 1.2% increase to $245 per share on June 10, 2025, at 20:00 UTC on Nasdaq, indicating some positive sentiment that could reverse if inflation data disappoints, per official Nasdaq data.

Diving into technical indicators, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 52 as of June 10, 2025, at 18:00 UTC, suggesting neutral momentum, according to TradingView data. However, the 50-day moving average (MA) at $67,800 could act as immediate support if CPI-driven volatility pushes prices down. Trading volume for BTC spiked by 12% over the past 24 hours to $25 billion across major exchanges as of 17:00 UTC on June 10, 2025, per CoinMarketCap, indicating heightened trader interest ahead of the report. In the stock market, the correlation between the S&P 500 and BTC remains moderately positive at 0.6 over the past 30 days, based on historical data from CoinMetrics as of June 10, 2025. This suggests that a sharp drop in equities post-CPI could drag crypto prices lower. On-chain metrics for Bitcoin show a net inflow of 5,200 BTC to exchanges on June 10, 2025, at 14:00 UTC, per Glassnode, hinting at potential selling pressure. For crypto traders, key levels to watch include BTC resistance at $71,000 and support at $68,000, while monitoring stock market indices like the Dow Jones, which closed at 38,900 points with a 0.3% gain on June 10, 2025, at 20:00 UTC, according to Reuters data. Institutional involvement in crypto ETFs, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), saw inflows of $30 million on June 9, 2025, per Grayscale’s official reports, which could be at risk if inflation data sparks a risk-off move. Overall, the CPI report’s impact on Fed policy expectations will likely ripple through both markets, creating trading opportunities for those positioned to capitalize on volatility.

FAQ:
What impact could the May CPI report have on Bitcoin prices?
The May CPI report, expected on June 11, 2025, could significantly influence Bitcoin prices depending on whether the Core CPI meets, exceeds, or falls below the anticipated 2.9%. A higher-than-expected reading could lead to a hawkish Fed stance, increasing selling pressure on risk assets like BTC, potentially pushing it toward support levels around $68,000 as of June 10, 2025, at 18:00 UTC, based on TradingView data. Conversely, a softer report could boost risk appetite, driving BTC toward resistance at $71,000.

How are stock market movements correlated with crypto ahead of the CPI release?
As of June 10, 2025, there is a moderate positive correlation of 0.6 between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin over the past 30 days, per CoinMetrics data. With the S&P 500 up 0.5% to 5,350 points and Nasdaq up 0.6% to 17,100 points on June 10, 2025, at 20:00 UTC, any sharp reaction in equities to the CPI data could similarly impact crypto markets, especially if institutional money flows shift between these asset classes.