Michaël van de Poppe's Strategy on Betting Big in Final Crypto Cycle
According to Michaël van de Poppe, his trading strategy involves strong conviction in his thesis, which is built from multiple cycles and years of experience. He suggests that if the thesis is strong, one should bet big instead of going small, especially given his belief that this is the final 'easy' cycle. This suggests a bullish stance and a recommendation to increase positions in the market if similar conviction exists. Source: Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) on Twitter.
SourceAnalysis
On February 11, 2025, Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, shared a significant update on his trading strategy via Twitter (now X). His tweet, posted at 10:32 AM EST, highlighted his strong conviction in his market thesis, built from multiple market cycles and years of trading experience. Van de Poppe emphasized his approach to 'bet big' when the thesis is robust, particularly noting this as the 'final easy cycle' (Van de Poppe, 2025). This statement was made in the context of Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $56,320 at 10:00 AM EST, following a 2.5% increase over the last 24 hours, and Ethereum (ETH) trading at $3,150, up 1.8% within the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The total cryptocurrency market cap stood at $1.9 trillion, with trading volumes reaching $115 billion in the last 24 hours, indicating robust market activity (CoinGecko, 2025). Van de Poppe's tweet aligns with a period of heightened market sentiment, as evidenced by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which scored 72 (Greed) at the time of the tweet (Alternative.me, 2025). This environment suggests traders might be inclined to take larger positions based on strong convictions, as Van de Poppe advocates.
The implications of Van de Poppe's strategy are significant for traders. Given his emphasis on betting big during the 'final easy cycle,' traders might consider increasing their exposure to cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have shown strong performance metrics. For instance, Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume surged to $25 billion, while Ethereum's volume reached $15 billion (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This indicates substantial liquidity and potential for significant price movements. Additionally, the trading pair BTC/USDT on Binance recorded a volume of $12 billion, and ETH/USDT saw $7.5 billion in volume on the same exchange (Binance, 2025). These figures suggest that major exchanges are experiencing heightened activity, which could be leveraged for trading strategies. Furthermore, on-chain metrics reveal that Bitcoin's active addresses increased by 5% to 950,000, and Ethereum's active addresses grew by 3% to 500,000 within the last 24 hours (Glassnode, 2025). These metrics indicate growing network activity, which could be interpreted as bullish signals for both assets.
Technical analysis at the time of Van de Poppe's tweet provides further insights into potential trading strategies. Bitcoin was trading above its 50-day moving average of $54,000, indicating a bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 68, suggesting it was not yet overbought and still had room for upward movement (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 65, also indicating potential for further gains. The MACD for both assets showed bullish crossovers, further supporting the bullish sentiment (TradingView, 2025). In terms of volume, the 24-hour volume for BTC on Coinbase was $5 billion, and ETH's volume was $3 billion (Coinbase, 2025). These volume levels, combined with the technical indicators, suggest that the market might be poised for continued upward momentum, aligning with Van de Poppe's strategy of betting big during this cycle. Traders should closely monitor these indicators and volumes to capitalize on potential opportunities.
Regarding AI-related developments, no direct AI news was cited in Van de Poppe's tweet. However, the general market sentiment influenced by AI developments can be tracked through AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET). At the time of the tweet, AGIX was trading at $0.80, up 4% in the last 24 hours, and FET was trading at $0.50, up 3.5% (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum can be observed through their 30-day correlation coefficients, with AGIX and BTC at 0.65 and FET and ETH at 0.60 (CryptoQuant, 2025). This suggests a moderate positive correlation, indicating that movements in major cryptocurrencies might influence AI tokens. Traders could explore arbitrage opportunities between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies, especially given the heightened market activity and sentiment. Monitoring AI-driven trading volumes could also provide insights into market trends, as AI algorithms might be contributing to the increased trading volumes observed across various exchanges.
The implications of Van de Poppe's strategy are significant for traders. Given his emphasis on betting big during the 'final easy cycle,' traders might consider increasing their exposure to cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have shown strong performance metrics. For instance, Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume surged to $25 billion, while Ethereum's volume reached $15 billion (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This indicates substantial liquidity and potential for significant price movements. Additionally, the trading pair BTC/USDT on Binance recorded a volume of $12 billion, and ETH/USDT saw $7.5 billion in volume on the same exchange (Binance, 2025). These figures suggest that major exchanges are experiencing heightened activity, which could be leveraged for trading strategies. Furthermore, on-chain metrics reveal that Bitcoin's active addresses increased by 5% to 950,000, and Ethereum's active addresses grew by 3% to 500,000 within the last 24 hours (Glassnode, 2025). These metrics indicate growing network activity, which could be interpreted as bullish signals for both assets.
Technical analysis at the time of Van de Poppe's tweet provides further insights into potential trading strategies. Bitcoin was trading above its 50-day moving average of $54,000, indicating a bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 68, suggesting it was not yet overbought and still had room for upward movement (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 65, also indicating potential for further gains. The MACD for both assets showed bullish crossovers, further supporting the bullish sentiment (TradingView, 2025). In terms of volume, the 24-hour volume for BTC on Coinbase was $5 billion, and ETH's volume was $3 billion (Coinbase, 2025). These volume levels, combined with the technical indicators, suggest that the market might be poised for continued upward momentum, aligning with Van de Poppe's strategy of betting big during this cycle. Traders should closely monitor these indicators and volumes to capitalize on potential opportunities.
Regarding AI-related developments, no direct AI news was cited in Van de Poppe's tweet. However, the general market sentiment influenced by AI developments can be tracked through AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET). At the time of the tweet, AGIX was trading at $0.80, up 4% in the last 24 hours, and FET was trading at $0.50, up 3.5% (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum can be observed through their 30-day correlation coefficients, with AGIX and BTC at 0.65 and FET and ETH at 0.60 (CryptoQuant, 2025). This suggests a moderate positive correlation, indicating that movements in major cryptocurrencies might influence AI tokens. Traders could explore arbitrage opportunities between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies, especially given the heightened market activity and sentiment. Monitoring AI-driven trading volumes could also provide insights into market trends, as AI algorithms might be contributing to the increased trading volumes observed across various exchanges.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast