Fed jobs data including Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment headline a data-heavy week after Kevin Warsh hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, with markets eyeing inflation and employment.

According to the source, BTC briefly moved back above 91,000 dollars as market participants positioned ahead of the next Federal Reserve policy decision and upcoming U.S. jobs data releases that can shift rate expectations and liquidity conditions, driving near-term volatility in crypto markets (source: the source). The Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate at scheduled FOMC meetings, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the monthly Employment Situation Summary including Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate, both closely monitored by traders for macro direction (source: Federal Reserve; Bureau of Labor Statistics). Traders commonly track CME FedWatch Tool probabilities, Treasury yield moves, and options implied volatility on CME Bitcoin futures to manage risk into these events, as these gauges reflect shifting policy expectations and market hedging demand (source: CME Group; U.S. Department of the Treasury).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the US hard economic data surprise has risen to +22 points, signaling that recent releases such as nonfarm payrolls, retail sales, and industrial production have been beating consensus estimates, source: @KobeissiLetter. @KobeissiLetter describes this as the US having two economies, with hard data notably outperforming expectations, source: @KobeissiLetter. For trading, the positive hard-data surprise backdrop warrants close monitoring of the US dollar (DXY), US Treasury yields, and BTC and ETH price action into upcoming hard-data releases to manage event risk, source: @KobeissiLetter. Key hard-data catalysts highlighted include nonfarm payrolls and retail sales, which are core components tracked by the surprise measure and can drive near-term volatility across FX, rates, and crypto markets, source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. Labor Department will release the "November employment situation" on December 16, six days after the December Federal Reserve meeting. Source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, this timing leaves the Fed without the November labor-market update at the decision, effectively a roughly one-month labor data blackout ahead of the meeting. Source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, that places December 16 as the next major labor-market release on trading calendars after the FOMC, relevant for rates, USD, and crypto markets such as BTC and ETH. Source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to @stocktalkweekly, the White House press secretary identified as Leavitt said October CPI and jobs data will likely never be released, posted on Nov 12, 2025; source: @stocktalkweekly. Traders should wait for confirmation or refutation on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule for CPI and the Employment Situation before repositioning; source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BTC and ETH historically experience elevated intraday swings around CPI and NFP prints, with short-dated implied volatility rising into these events; source: Deribit Insights, Kaiko Research. If key macro releases are withheld, rate-expectation proxies (CME FedWatch) and U.S. Treasury yields can dominate risk pricing and spill over to crypto beta; source: CME FedWatch, U.S. Department of the Treasury. Actionables: monitor the BLS press room, track DXY and 2Y/10Y yields, and consider hedging with short-dated BTC and ETH options to manage event risk; source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Deribit.

According to @KobeissiLetter, ADP’s high-frequency weekly data show US private employers cut an average of -11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25, totaling -45,000 and marking the second-largest four-week drop since 2020 (source: ADP weekly data via @KobeissiLetter). This contrasts with ADP’s monthly October report indicating +42,000 private payroll gains after declines in the prior two months (source: ADP monthly via @KobeissiLetter). Goldman Sachs estimates overall October payrolls fell by -50,000, highlighting a softer labor impulse than the ADP monthly print suggests (source: Goldman Sachs via @KobeissiLetter). The Kobeissi Letter characterizes the trend as accelerating downward momentum in the US job market, a macro signal closely monitored by risk-asset traders, including those in BTC and ETH, for liquidity and rate-path cues (source: @KobeissiLetter).