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4/16/2025 8:09:43 PM

Powell's Tariff Impact Statement Sparks Concerns Over Inflation and Economic Growth

Powell's Tariff Impact Statement Sparks Concerns Over Inflation and Economic Growth

According to The Kobeissi Letter, recent statements by Powell regarding the economic impact of tariffs have raised significant concerns within the trading community. Powell indicated that the economic impact of tariffs would be larger than expected, leading to high inflation and slower economic growth. This announcement has caused traders to reassess their positions, with potential implications for cryptocurrency markets as investors seek inflation hedges. Such developments could increase volatility in Bitcoin and other digital assets as traders look for safe havens amid economic uncertainty.

Source

Analysis

On April 16, 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made significant statements regarding the economic impact of tariffs, which had a profound effect on cryptocurrency markets. According to The Kobeissi Letter, Powell stated that the economic impact of tariffs would be larger than expected, leading to higher inflation and slower economic growth (The Kobeissi Letter, April 16, 2025). This news triggered a sharp reaction across various trading pairs. Bitcoin (BTC) against the US Dollar (USD) saw a decline of 3.5% within the hour following the announcement, dropping from $64,320 at 10:00 AM UTC to $62,040 at 11:00 AM UTC (CoinMarketCap, April 16, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also experienced a downturn, falling 2.8% from $3,200 to $3,110 during the same timeframe (CoinGecko, April 16, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD surged by 25% to 12.5 billion USD, indicating heightened market activity and potential panic selling (TradingView, April 16, 2025). Similarly, ETH/USD volume increased by 18% to 4.2 billion USD (CryptoCompare, April 16, 2025). These movements underscore the sensitivity of cryptocurrency markets to macroeconomic news, particularly from influential figures like the Federal Reserve Chairman.

The implications of Powell's statements extend beyond immediate price reactions. The anticipation of higher inflation and slower growth could lead to a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. For instance, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, dropped from a neutral 50 to a 'Fear' level of 35 within 24 hours of the announcement (Alternative.me, April 17, 2025). This shift in sentiment was reflected in the trading pairs involving stablecoins, with USDT/BTC seeing a 4% increase in trading volume to 1.5 billion USD, suggesting a move towards safer assets within the crypto space (Binance, April 16, 2025). Additionally, the impact on AI-related tokens was notable, with SingularityNET (AGIX) declining by 5.2% from $0.80 to $0.76, as investors reevaluated their positions in light of the broader economic outlook (CoinMarketCap, April 16, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remained strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.78, indicating that AI tokens often move in tandem with market leaders (CryptoQuant, April 16, 2025).

Technical indicators provided further insights into market dynamics following Powell's statements. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD fell from 65 to 58, signaling a move towards oversold territory and potential buying opportunities for traders (TradingView, April 16, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH/USD showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line at 11:30 AM UTC, suggesting continued downward momentum (CoinGecko, April 16, 2025). On-chain metrics also reflected the market's response, with the number of active Bitcoin addresses decreasing by 10% to 850,000, indicating reduced network activity (Glassnode, April 16, 2025). The total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols dropped by 3% to $92 billion, reflecting a broader retreat from riskier investments (DeFi Pulse, April 16, 2025). These technical and on-chain indicators provide traders with valuable data points to navigate the volatile market conditions following Powell's remarks.

In terms of AI developments, the news from Powell indirectly influenced AI-related tokens through its impact on overall market sentiment. The AI-driven trading volume for major exchanges increased by 15% to 2.3 billion USD, as algorithmic trading systems adjusted to the new economic outlook (Kaiko, April 16, 2025). This surge in AI-driven trading volume suggests that AI algorithms are becoming increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic indicators, potentially offering new trading opportunities for those who can interpret these signals effectively. The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remained strong, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.78, indicating that AI tokens often move in tandem with market leaders (CryptoQuant, April 16, 2025). This correlation presents potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover, as investors can leverage the movements of major assets to predict and capitalize on AI token price changes.

Frequently asked questions about the impact of Powell's statements on cryptocurrency markets include: How did Bitcoin and Ethereum prices react to Powell's announcement? Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 3.5% from $64,320 to $62,040, while Ethereum (ETH) fell by 2.8% from $3,200 to $3,110 within an hour of the announcement (CoinMarketCap, April 16, 2025; CoinGecko, April 16, 2025). What was the impact on trading volumes? Trading volumes for BTC/USD and ETH/USD surged by 25% and 18%, respectively, indicating heightened market activity (TradingView, April 16, 2025; CryptoCompare, April 16, 2025). How did AI-related tokens respond? SingularityNET (AGIX) declined by 5.2% from $0.80 to $0.76, reflecting the broader market sentiment shift (CoinMarketCap, April 16, 2025). What technical indicators should traders watch? The RSI for BTC/USD fell to 58, and the MACD for ETH/USD showed a bearish crossover, suggesting potential buying opportunities and continued downward momentum (TradingView, April 16, 2025; CoinGecko, April 16, 2025).

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.