According to @lookonchain, Polymarket trader 'ricosuave666' returned after roughly seven months of inactivity and spent 8,198 dollars to bet on the market titled Israel strikes Iran, highlighting renewed positioning in a high-impact geopolitical contract for prediction market participants (source: @lookonchain on X; source: polymarket.com/@ricosuave666?tab=activity). According to @lookonchain, the same account’s Israel-related wagers placed when he joined seven months ago were all profitable, which the source flagged while explicitly posing the insider question without making an assertion (source: @lookonchain on X). According to @lookonchain, this wallet-specific flow is being surfaced for traders monitoring on-chain prediction market activity around Israel-Iran escalation risk, and the related transactions can be reviewed directly on the provided Polymarket profile activity page for verification and context (source: @lookonchain on X; source: polymarket.com/@ricosuave666?tab=activity).

According to @bubblemaps, recent posts tying a supposed Maduro-linked Polymarket insider to a WLFI cofounder rely on weak logic and should stop, source: Bubblemaps on X, Jan 5, 2026. Given @bubblemaps’ assessment, traders should avoid anchoring positions to this WLFI linkage narrative and discount rumor-driven repricing in related Polymarket markets until verifiable evidence is presented, source: Bubblemaps on X, Jan 5, 2026.

According to @EvgenyGaevoy, insider trading on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi should not be normalized, and he states he will think less of those who engage in it, signaling reputational risk for market participants, source: X post by @EvgenyGaevoy, Jan 5, 2026. He publicly endorses @karbonbased’s guidance that if you possess material non-public information obtained through private channels, you should not trade the related market, source: X post by @EvgenyGaevoy, Jan 5, 2026; X post by @karbonbased, Jan 5, 2026. The guidance further warns that relying on a technicality that insider trading rules do not apply to CFTC derivatives is unlikely to hold up and may carry criminal risk, including prison, source: X post by @karbonbased, Jan 5, 2026; supported by X post by @EvgenyGaevoy, Jan 5, 2026. Trading takeaway: abstain from executing or signaling trades on Polymarket or Kalshi when in possession of material non-public information to mitigate legal exposure and reputational damage, source: X post by @EvgenyGaevoy, Jan 5, 2026; X post by @karbonbased, Jan 5, 2026.

According to @lookonchain, trader "beachboy4" lost over $2 million on Polymarket within 35 days, implying an average realized drawdown of roughly $57,000 per day based on the disclosed figures (source: Lookonchain, X post dated Jan 5, 2026). The case highlights how concentrated positions in event-driven markets can translate into rapid losses when probabilities move against the trader, as prediction market prices adjust quickly to new information (source: Lookonchain; source: Wolfers & Zitzewitz, Journal of Economic Perspectives 2004). For trading execution, the episode reinforces capping position size relative to bankroll and modeling liquidity and price impact when exiting losing bets, factors known to accelerate drawdowns in thin prediction markets (source: Lookonchain; source: Hanson, Market Scoring Rules 2003).

According to @lookonchain, three newly created wallets on Polymarket placed large positions on markets predicting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be out of office just hours before his arrest, and collectively realized $630,484 in profit (source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2007639475497881625). Wallet 0x31a5 invested about $34,000 and booked about $409,900 in profit on the relevant Polymarket market, as shown on its activity page and summarized by @lookonchain (source: https://polymarket.com/@0x31a56e9E690c621eD21De08Cb559e9524Cdb8eD9-1766730765984?tab=activity; source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2007639475497881625). Wallet 0xa72D invested about $5,800 and profited about $75,000 on the same theme, per its Polymarket profile and @lookonchain’s report (source: https://polymarket.com/@0xa72DB1749e9AC2379D49A3c12708325ED17FeBd4-1766534754187?tab=activity; source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2007639475497881625). Wallet SBet365 invested about $25,000 and realized about $145,600 in profit on Venezuela–Maduro markets, as reflected on its Polymarket activity and cited by @lookonchain (source: https://polymarket.com/@SBet365?tab=activity; source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2007639475497881625). The three wallets were created and pre-funded days in advance, then executed the large bets just hours before the arrest, and only wagered on Venezuela/Maduro-related events with no other betting history, which @lookonchain characterizes as a clear case of insider trading for prediction market participants to note (source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2007639475497881625).

According to @ai_9684xtpa, the Pentagon Pizza Index is sponsored/supported by Polymarket and is drawing attention inside and outside the crypto community (source: @ai_9684xtpa). The dashboard’s title and hover tooltips include clear @Polymarket jump links, enabling direct navigation from the data panel to related Polymarket markets for faster positioning workflows (source: pizzint.watch). The portal is available at pizzint.watch, providing a distinctive data view with integrated access to Polymarket markets that facilitates a seamless path from monitoring to action for traders (source: @ai_9684xtpa; source: pizzint.watch).

According to @phantom, every token, perps, and prediction page in Phantom now has its own live chat, enabling users to make friends and place trades in the same interface; source: @phantom on X https://x.com/phantom/status/2007247461216333886. The announcement states Every token, perps, and prediction page now has its own live chat and Make friends and trades, all in the same place, indicating chat is embedded alongside trading features for spot, perp, and prediction markets; source: @phantom on X https://x.com/phantom/status/2003246358745219393. The post does not disclose rollout metrics, supported networks, or usage data beyond announcing availability, leaving operational details unspecified for traders evaluating workflow impact; source: @phantom on X https://x.com/phantom/status/2007247461216333886.

According to Lookonchain, Polymarket trader DrPufferfish has closed 490 predictions with 396 winners, resulting in an 80.82% win rate and total profits of $2.59M, source: Lookonchain on X Jan 2, 2026; polymarket.com/@DrPufferfish. Lookonchain describes the account as a smart trader and shares the public profile for verification of these performance metrics, source: Lookonchain on X Jan 2, 2026; polymarket.com/@DrPufferfish.

According to @lookonchain, address 0x4924 placed 6 prediction bets on Polymarket on Dec 31, 2025, with 4 winning bets and a total daily profit of $928,000, as shown in the linked activity feed for the address, source: https://x.com/lookonchain/status/2006286725778419886; source: https://polymarket.com/@0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188?tab=activity. Based on the reported figures, the win rate was 66.7% and the average profit per winning bet was approximately $232,000, calculated from $928,000 across 4 wins, source: https://x.com/lookonchain/status/2006286725778419886. The post does not disclose stake sizes, specific market questions, or time-in-trade for each position, and these details are not visible in the tweet itself, source: https://x.com/lookonchain/status/2006286725778419886. Polymarket facilitates prediction trading using USDC on Polygon, making PnL settlement and trade activity on-chain for addresses like 0x4924, source: https://polymarket.com/learn; source: https://help.polymarket.com.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Kalshi’s prediction market currently implies just a 10% chance that the S&P 500 will cross above 7,000 in 2025. Source: @StockMKTNewz; Kalshi. On Kalshi, Yes contract prices map directly to market-implied probabilities, so a 10% probability corresponds to roughly $0.10 per contract. Source: Kalshi. Crypto traders track these equity odds because Bitcoin has shown increased correlation with U.S. equities since 2020, making equity risk signals relevant for digital asset sentiment. Source: IMF 2022; BIS 2022.

According to @lookonchain, Polymarket trader 'simonbanza' generated over $1.9 million in profit within two weeks, closing 108 bets with 64 wins for a 59% win rate, with most profits coming from sports event markets; source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2004580898130518500 and https://polymarket.com/@simonbanza?tab=positions. Based on those reported figures, the profit equates to at least about $17.6k per closed bet and roughly $29.7k per winning bet over the period; source: calculations based on the @lookonchain post and the Polymarket profile at https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2004580898130518500 and https://polymarket.com/@simonbanza?tab=positions.

According to @CoinMarketCap, onchain prediction markets are now overtaking meme coin trading volume, signalling a rotation to the next meta that traders can front-run by tracking sector flows and liquidity shifts across narratives. Source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Dec 26, 2025, and CoinMarketCap Academy Meme Coin Recap 2025. @CoinMarketCap also advises reviewing 2025 wins and losses to refine strategy and execution, and maintaining discipline and information hygiene when reallocating risk during narrative shifts. Source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Dec 26, 2025.

According to @Nick_van_Eck, @JoeSquawk described MON at $0.02 as a stocking stuffer, highlighting a specific quoted price level for MON. Source: X post by @Nick_van_Eck on Dec 24, 2025. The same post links to a CNBC interview where Dragonfly’s Rob Hadick projects another positive year in 2026 with emphasis on innovation in prediction markets, stablecoins, tokenized assets, and scalability and infrastructure for financial markets. Source: CNBC video published Dec 24, 2025; X post by @Nick_van_Eck on Dec 24, 2025. For traders, the explicitly quoted $0.02 level on MON and the named sectors provide concrete watch items drawn directly from the sources. Source: CNBC video published Dec 24, 2025; X post by @Nick_van_Eck on Dec 24, 2025.

According to @CoinMarketCap, prediction markets professionalized in 2025 and shifted from AMM models to CLOB setups, source: CoinMarketCap. @CoinMarketCap reports the core competition moved to distribution levers including tokenized access, builder codes, point programs, and incentive-driven growth, source: CoinMarketCap. For trading strategy selection in prediction markets, @CoinMarketCap underscores that distribution mechanics and incentive programs are the primary variables to track in 2025, source: CoinMarketCap.

According to @phantom, every token, perps, and prediction page in Phantom now features a live chat, unifying conversation and trading in a single interface for each market page, source: @phantom on X, Dec 22, 2025. According to @phantom, users can make friends and trades in the same place, indicating native page-level discussion directly alongside trading actions for immediate context, source: @phantom on X, Dec 22, 2025.

According to @phantom, prediction markets are now live for 100% of eligible users. source: Phantom on X on Dec 22, 2025. According to @phantom, traders can discover, discuss, and predict outcomes of real-world events using any Solana SOL token in their Phantom wallet, including useCASH. source: Phantom on X on Dec 22, 2025. According to @phantom, the feature is powered by Kalshi. source: Phantom on X on Dec 22, 2025.

According to @AltcoinDaily, a new interview with @intodotspace covers Space Prediction Market, the idea of a coming prediction market supercycle, and the claim that Solana (SOL) is the perfect chain for prediction markets (source: @AltcoinDaily). According to @AltcoinDaily, the video also includes a platform walkthrough, offering context for traders tracking prediction market infrastructure and SOL ecosystem narratives (source: @AltcoinDaily).

According to @iampaulgrewal, Congress amended the Commodity Exchange Act to foster investment in a single, national market of regulated swaps and he stated the U.S. will achieve this outcome, source: https://twitter.com/iampaulgrewal/status/2003146496947241214. Coinbase stated it has announced prediction markets on Coinbase, source: https://x.com/coinbase/status/2003120038107349348. Coinbase added it is bringing in specialized talent and welcomed @theclearingco to Coinbase, source: https://x.com/coinbase/status/2003120038107349348. Together, these posts indicate Coinbase is moving to execute a U.S. strategy centered on regulated swaps and prediction markets, relevant for derivatives traders tracking onshore venues, source: https://twitter.com/iampaulgrewal/status/2003146496947241214 and https://x.com/coinbase/status/2003120038107349348.

According to @StockMarketNerd, this week’s catalysts include a SOFI stablecoin launch and positioning, an RBRK leadership interview, prediction market news, a CPNG hearing with fresh data, AMZN and GOOGL chip news, and NOW M&A, plus links to 40 earnings reviews and the author’s portfolio for deeper diligence, providing trading context across equities and crypto-adjacent themes; sources: @StockMarketNerd on X, Dec 21, 2025; stockmarketnerd.com/news-of-the-week-december-14-18-2025/.

According to @jessepollak, Base raised its block gas limit to 375 Mgas, unlocking higher burst capacity and improved throughput as activity grows; source: @jessepollak on X, Dec 20, 2025. The new Base App is live in 140+ countries as an everything app for social, trading, and payments with built-in ways for users to earn from content and activity; source: @jessepollak on X, Dec 20, 2025. Spend Permissions are live for all mini apps in Base App, enabling smooth transaction UX without unlimited token approvals; source: @jessepollak on X, Dec 20, 2025. Trading stack expanded: Banana Pro added Base support with swaps, limit orders, DCA, wallet tracking, and cross-chain views; source: @jessepollak on X, Dec 20, 2025. Liquidity access broadened: KuCoin Web3 enabled Coinbase-wrapped assets on Base including cbBTC, cbETH, cbXRP, cbDOGE, cbADA, and cbLTC, while BitgetWallet rolled out a new Base token list letting users hold BTC, XRP, and LTC alongside Base-native tokens; source: @jessepollak on X, Dec 20, 2025. Onchain markets grew with RollX v2, a self-custodial, community-owned perp trading platform opening its waitlist, and TrueMarkets launching a mini app for non-US users to access fully onchain prediction markets on mobile; source: @jessepollak on X, Dec 20, 2025. Execution and discovery tools advanced as Wowmax launched best-price swaps, cross-chain swaps across 20+ networks, and copy trading via its mini app, and UpscaleTrade went live with an onchain proprietary trading platform with Base wallet login, onchain payments, and a verified vault contract; source: @jessepollak on X, Dec 20, 2025. AI-driven trading arrived via Agentic Capital Markets from samterminalcom, where AI agents train on onchain data, discover signals, and execute trades autonomously on Base; source: @jessepollak on X, Dec 20, 2025. Fiat rails broadened with a 1:1 Malaysian Ringgit stablecoin on Base and Tria enabling Base assets for real-world spending via card top-ups while maintaining self-custody; source: @jessepollak on X, Dec 20, 2025. Engagement and trading campaigns accelerated as Avantis launched Leagues of Leverage and Layer3 kicked off 20 Days Onchain on Base; source: @jessepollak on X, Dec 20, 2025.