According to @iampaulgrewal, the U.S. District Court in KalshiEX, LLC v. Hendrick (D. Nev.) characterized Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts as sports wagers and cited Justice Potter Stewart’s Jacobellis v. Ohio line, “I know it when I see it,” 378 U.S. 184, 197 (1964) (@iampaulgrewal). According to @iampaulgrewal, he expects a future Miller-style standard to replace that subjective approach, referencing Miller v. California as the model for a clearer test (@iampaulgrewal). Based on @iampaulgrewal’s statement, traders should price in elevated U.S. legal uncertainty and potential liquidity/volatility impacts for sports-event prediction markets with a U.S. nexus until standards are clarified (@iampaulgrewal).

According to @EleanorTerrett, Acting CFTC Chair Caroline D. Pham is recruiting CEOs for a new innovation council to advise on shaping regulations for prediction markets and crypto so the agency can “hit the ground running” in January (source: @EleanorTerrett on X, Nov 25, 2025). According to @EleanorTerrett, the post highlights a focus on prediction markets and crypto rulemaking and references a tentative Senate schedule, though further specifics were not included in the post (source: @EleanorTerrett on X, Nov 25, 2025). According to @EleanorTerrett, the January timing cue suggests traders should anticipate U.S. regulatory headlines concerning prediction markets and broader crypto oversight during that window (source: @EleanorTerrett on X, Nov 25, 2025).