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Quantum Computing 'Q-Day' Poses Existential Threat to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), Researchers Warn | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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7/6/2025 3:42:45 AM

Quantum Computing 'Q-Day' Poses Existential Threat to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), Researchers Warn

Quantum Computing 'Q-Day' Poses Existential Threat to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), Researchers Warn

According to @AltcoinGordon, the cryptocurrency market faces a significant long-term threat from quantum computing, dubbed 'Q-Day,' which could render current encryption methods obsolete. Experts warn this is a present crisis, not a future problem, due to 'Harvest Now, Decrypt Later' attacks where encrypted data is being collected today for future decryption by quantum computers, as noted by Jay Gambetta of IBM Quantum. The risk is so significant that BlackRock added quantum computing as a critical risk factor in its Bitcoin ETF filing. Researchers estimate that 4 million Bitcoin (BTC), or about 25% of the usable supply, could be stolen once quantum computers are powerful enough. In response, Ethereum (ETH) co-founder Vitalik Buterin has proposed emergency hard-fork solutions, which could involve significant downtime. Meanwhile, the ecosystem continues to evolve with the launch of the Botanix mainnet, a Bitcoin Layer-2 designed to slash block times, and the mainnet launch of the XRP Ledger's EVM sidechain, aiming to enhance interoperability for dapps in the XRP ecosystem.

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Analysis

The cryptocurrency market is navigating a complex landscape defined by foundational debates, technological leaps, and looming existential threats. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently issued a stark warning at the Ethereum Community Conference, emphasizing that the industry is at an inflection point. He argued that decentralization must become a tangible user guarantee rather than a mere marketing buzzword. This call for maturity comes as Ethereum (ETH) trades around $2,512, showing a slight 24-hour dip of 0.31% against USDT, while the ETH/BTC pair hovers at 0.02319, indicating a complex dynamic against the market leader. Buterin’s critique targets the core of many DeFi projects and Layer-2 networks, which often rely on centralized backdoors, creating vulnerabilities that contradict the ecosystem's core ethos. For traders, this highlights a critical need to scrutinize the underlying architecture of projects, as true decentralization could become a significant premium factor in future valuations.



Layer-2 Innovations and Interoperability Drive Market Narratives



While Ethereum grapples with its philosophical core, innovation continues to accelerate across the industry, particularly in the Layer-2 and interoperability sectors. The mainnet launch of Botanix, a Bitcoin Layer-2 solution, promises to drastically reduce block times and bring EVM compatibility to the Bitcoin network. This development aims to unlock the vast liquidity of Bitcoin, which currently trades at approximately $108,004 per BTCUSDT, for the burgeoning DeFi space. Similarly, Ripple officially launched the XRP Ledger's EVM sidechain, connecting it to the broader ecosystem via the Axelar bridge. This move is designed to attract Ethereum-based dapps to the XRPL network. Despite this significant milestone, the market reaction for XRP has been muted; the XRP/USDT pair trades at $2.223, down a slight 0.25% with a notable 24-hour volume of over 307,000. This lukewarm price action may present a long-term accumulation opportunity for traders who believe these infrastructure upgrades will eventually translate into network adoption and value accretion.



Institutional Moves Contrast with Regulatory Caution



The institutional landscape continues to signal growing mainstream acceptance. Digital brokerage Robinhood (HOOD) announced plans for its own Layer-2 network on Arbitrum and has already launched tokenized stock trading for European users. Meanwhile, according to a Bloomberg report, German banking giant Deutsche Bank (DB) is preparing to launch a crypto custody service in partnership with Bitpanda. These developments provide a bullish long-term tailwind, suggesting that traditional finance is building the necessary infrastructure to engage with digital assets on a massive scale. However, this optimism is tempered by a cautious regulatory environment. In the U.S., a crypto tax clarification proposal from Senator Cynthia Lummis failed to pass, and New York Attorney General Letitia James has warned Congress about the potential risks in current stablecoin legislation. This dichotomy creates a challenging environment for traders, where positive institutional flows could be stymied by sudden regulatory clampdowns, necessitating a balanced approach to risk management.



The Unseen Threat: Quantum Computing's "Q-Day" and Portfolio Risk



Perhaps the most significant long-term risk facing the entire digital asset class is the advent of quantum computing. The concept of "Q-Day"—the moment a quantum computer can break current cryptographic standards—poses an existential threat. As Jay Gambetta, Vice President of IBM Quantum, warns, malicious actors are already engaging in "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" attacks, storing encrypted data today with the intent of breaking it tomorrow. This threat is so credible that BlackRock added quantum computing as a key risk factor in its Bitcoin ETF filing. Researchers estimate that roughly 4 million BTC could be vulnerable once quantum supremacy is achieved. Ethereum is also at risk, with Buterin himself having proposed emergency hard-fork solutions. The potential for a quantum-capable entity to dominate Bitcoin mining or drain wallets could send the price of BTC, and the entire market, into a death spiral. Experts at the University of Kent estimate that upgrading Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant state could require over 75 days of network downtime, an event that would shatter market confidence. This long-tail risk is not yet priced into assets like BTC or ETH, but it underscores the critical importance of monitoring developments in post-quantum cryptography for any long-term investment thesis.

Gordon

@AltcoinGordon

From $0 to Crypto multi millionaire in 3 years

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