Fed September rate decision odds hit 50-50 after Warsh remarks lifted hike probabilities, shifting monetary policy outlook.

FOMC rate decision at 2:00 PM ET and press conference at 2:30 PM ET set to drive Bitcoin and risk asset moves amid hold expectations.

According to QCP, markets have already priced the FOMC rate decision, so Chair Powell’s tone will drive the immediate reaction with limited new data and key releases still ahead, source: QCP on X, Dec 10, 2025. For traders, this means the press conference guidance rather than the headline rate should be the focus for near-term positioning and volatility risk management, source: QCP on X, Dec 10, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Polymarket pricing shows a 94% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates on Wednesday, indicating the decision is heavily priced by prediction markets, source: @KobeissiLetter citing Polymarket, Dec 8, 2025. The post also states this would be the third rate cut of 2025, underscoring an ongoing easing trajectory, source: @KobeissiLetter, Dec 8, 2025. BTC and ETH volatility has historically risen around FOMC policy decisions, so if a cut is already priced, trader focus shifts to the statement and press conference for guidance on the pace of easing, source: Kaiko research on FOMC-day crypto volatility, 2023–2024. Event risk is concentrated in forward guidance and balance-of-risks language, which has been a key driver of crypto price action during prior rate announcements, source: Kaiko research on macro sensitivity of crypto, 2023–2024.