According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 10-year note yield has fallen to its lowest level since September 29th, despite inflation expectations rising above 5%. This suggests that markets are pricing in a recession, impacting interest rates and bond markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 10-year note yield has fallen to its lowest level since September 29th, indicating that despite an expected inflation rise to over 5%, interest rates are decreasing. This trend is interpreted as a key indicator that markets are pricing in a potential recession this year.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices have dropped nearly 7% as investors anticipate a global demand collapse, with the potential for a 40%+ decrease if tariffs are sustained long-term.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices have dropped nearly 7% as markets anticipate a recession due to a projected collapse in global demand. This decline reflects investor concerns about long-term tariffs potentially leading to a 40%+ decrease in oil prices.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, in 2025, President Trump, Fed Chair Powell, and Treasury Secretary Bessent agreed that a recession is necessary to reduce both inflation and interest rates, following over three years of compounding inflation.

According to @KobeissiLetter, markets are anticipating a recession as evidenced by the 10-year note yield dropping 65 basis points over the last 11 weeks. This drop indicates a massive reversal, suggesting a shift in market expectations. Concurrently, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have increased to over 4%. This unusual situation where rates are falling while inflation is rising could indicate future volatility in interest rate-sensitive investments, affecting trading strategies for both bond and stock markets.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the market is indicating a potential recession as evidenced by a 65 basis point drop in the 10-year note yield over the past 11 weeks. Concurrently, annualized inflation metrics for 1 and 3-month periods have exceeded 4%. This creates a scenario where interest rates are decreasing while inflation is increasing, which is unusual and suggests economic uncertainty. Traders should monitor these indicators closely as they may affect bond and stock market strategies.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the market is signaling a potential recession as the 10-year note yield has decreased by 65 basis points over the last 11 weeks. This decline represents a significant reversal, despite the fact that 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have surpassed 4%. This unusual scenario of falling rates paired with rising inflation is noteworthy for traders and investors (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the market is currently pricing in a recession, as evidenced by the 10-year note yield falling 65 basis points over the last 11 weeks. Concurrently, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have increased to over 4%, indicating that rates are decreasing while inflation is rising.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, markets are currently pricing in a recession as evidenced by a 65 basis points drop in the 10-year note yield over the past 11 weeks, despite rising inflation rates of over 4% in the 1 and 3-month annualized metrics. This unusual trend where interest rates are falling while inflation is increasing is indicative of significant market stress and could influence trading strategies focused on bond markets.

According to @KobeissiLetter, markets are anticipating a recession as evidenced by a 65 basis point drop in the 10-year note yield over the past 11 weeks. Concurrently, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have increased to over 4%, indicating a unique scenario where rates are decreasing while inflation is on the rise.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the markets are indicating a potential recession as evidenced by a 65 basis points decline in the 10-year note yield over the past 11 weeks. Concurrently, annualized inflation metrics for 1 and 3 months have surged above 4%. This divergence, where rates are decreasing while inflation is increasing, suggests significant market volatility and potential trading opportunities.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the markets are signaling a recession as the 10-year note yield has decreased by 65 basis points over the past 11 weeks. This represents a significant reversal, coupled with the rise in 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics to over 4%. The unusual scenario of falling rates amidst rising inflation is influencing market behavior.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, since President Trump's inauguration, oil prices have decreased by over $10 per barrel. The tweet highlights that the oil market is currently factoring in lower demand and weaker economic growth, which are critical indicators for traders. This suggests a bearish trend in the oil market, potentially leading to lower energy prices due to anticipated reduced economic activity.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 has decreased by 2% since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates in September 2024, reflecting market concerns about a potential recession. Historically, when rate cuts occur during a recession, the S&P 500 tends to decline by 6% over six months and 10% over twelve months. The average return post-rate cut pivot is only 1% over six months, indicating limited recovery potential in such scenarios.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, after the March 13th relief rally, the S&P 500 was down just -6% from its peak. Historically, if stocks dropped another 5% within 150 days, it indicated a recession. On Monday, the S&P 500 hit the -11% threshold, suggesting traders should prepare for potential recessionary signals.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the initiation of President Trump's trade war coincided with a peak in the 10-year note yield. Over the past two months, there has been a decline in rates as the market has been factoring in a potential recession. The announcement of a 25% auto tariff marked the most recent lower high in yields, indicating a significant impact on trading strategies and interest rate forecasting.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, markets are pricing in a recession as the 10-year note yield has decreased by 65 basis points over the past 11 weeks. Concurrently, annualized inflation metrics for 1 and 3 months have increased to over 4%. This situation where interest rates are falling while inflation is rising suggests growing economic uncertainty.

According to WallStreetBulls, a recession and bear market are anticipated to commence on April 2, signaling the end of the current crypto bull run, with cryptocurrencies like XRP expected to be impacted. Traders are advised to prepare for potential market downturns starting from this date.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US consumer inflation expectations have reached their highest level since 1993, while consumer confidence has significantly declined. This scenario suggests that consumers are unprepared for any further inflationary pressures and already perceive the economy as being in a recession, which may impact consumer spending and market stability.