According to Compounding Quality, a recession is marked by economic contraction, resulting in job losses and decreased consumer spending (source: @QCompounding, June 9, 2025). Historically, such downturns generate heightened volatility in cryptocurrency markets as traditional investors seek alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Traders should monitor shifts in institutional capital flows and increased trading volumes on major exchanges, as recessions often drive interest in decentralized finance products and stablecoins for risk management. Understanding macroeconomic signals during recession periods is critical for optimizing crypto trading strategies and mitigating downside risk (source: @QCompounding, June 9, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a recession would achieve most of Trump’s economic objectives, including lowering interest rates, reducing inflation, enabling tariffs to shrink the trade deficit, and cutting interest expenses on US debt (source: The Kobeissi Letter Twitter, May 23, 2025). For crypto traders, this macroeconomic shift could spur increased risk appetite as lower rates and inflation have historically benefited digital assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, policy-driven volatility in traditional markets may drive capital flows into cryptocurrencies as alternative investments. However, the negative side effects of a recession, such as reduced consumer spending, could also introduce short-term headwinds for risk assets (source: The Kobeissi Letter Twitter, May 23, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the probability of a recession occurring in 2025 has increased to 63%, as reported by @Kalshi. This significant rise in recession odds could impact investor sentiment and market strategies, prompting traders to adjust their portfolios to hedge against potential economic downturns.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices are experiencing their largest 2-day loss since April 2020 as the markets are factoring in a potential recession. This significant drop has critical implications for traders focusing on energy commodities, as it suggests a potential decrease in demand due to economic slowdown expectations.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, JP Morgan has increased their probability estimate of a recession occurring in 2025 to 60%. Traders should consider the potential impact of economic downturns on cryptocurrency markets, as historical trends suggest increased volatility during such periods.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the bond markets are signaling a potential recession if current tariffs persist. The 10-year note yield has decreased by 90 basis points in approximately two months, currently sitting below 3.90% for the first time since September 22, 2024. This drop marks the onset of the 'Fed Pivot', highlighting significant changes in monetary policy that traders must monitor closely.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices have decreased by 6% today, culminating in a near 15% drop over the last two days. This significant decline marks the largest two-day drop since April 2020, raising concerns about an impending recession. Traders should closely monitor the impact on related markets and potential shifts in energy commodity trading strategies.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 10-year note yield has fallen to its lowest level since September 29th, despite inflation expectations rising above 5%. This suggests that markets are pricing in a recession, impacting interest rates and bond markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 10-year note yield has fallen to its lowest level since September 29th, indicating that despite an expected inflation rise to over 5%, interest rates are decreasing. This trend is interpreted as a key indicator that markets are pricing in a potential recession this year.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices have dropped nearly 7% as investors anticipate a global demand collapse, with the potential for a 40%+ decrease if tariffs are sustained long-term.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices have dropped nearly 7% as markets anticipate a recession due to a projected collapse in global demand. This decline reflects investor concerns about long-term tariffs potentially leading to a 40%+ decrease in oil prices.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, in 2025, President Trump, Fed Chair Powell, and Treasury Secretary Bessent agreed that a recession is necessary to reduce both inflation and interest rates, following over three years of compounding inflation.

According to @KobeissiLetter, markets are anticipating a recession as evidenced by the 10-year note yield dropping 65 basis points over the last 11 weeks. This drop indicates a massive reversal, suggesting a shift in market expectations. Concurrently, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have increased to over 4%. This unusual situation where rates are falling while inflation is rising could indicate future volatility in interest rate-sensitive investments, affecting trading strategies for both bond and stock markets.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the market is indicating a potential recession as evidenced by a 65 basis point drop in the 10-year note yield over the past 11 weeks. Concurrently, annualized inflation metrics for 1 and 3-month periods have exceeded 4%. This creates a scenario where interest rates are decreasing while inflation is increasing, which is unusual and suggests economic uncertainty. Traders should monitor these indicators closely as they may affect bond and stock market strategies.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the market is signaling a potential recession as the 10-year note yield has decreased by 65 basis points over the last 11 weeks. This decline represents a significant reversal, despite the fact that 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have surpassed 4%. This unusual scenario of falling rates paired with rising inflation is noteworthy for traders and investors (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the market is currently pricing in a recession, as evidenced by the 10-year note yield falling 65 basis points over the last 11 weeks. Concurrently, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have increased to over 4%, indicating that rates are decreasing while inflation is rising.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, markets are currently pricing in a recession as evidenced by a 65 basis points drop in the 10-year note yield over the past 11 weeks, despite rising inflation rates of over 4% in the 1 and 3-month annualized metrics. This unusual trend where interest rates are falling while inflation is increasing is indicative of significant market stress and could influence trading strategies focused on bond markets.

According to @KobeissiLetter, markets are anticipating a recession as evidenced by a 65 basis point drop in the 10-year note yield over the past 11 weeks. Concurrently, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have increased to over 4%, indicating a unique scenario where rates are decreasing while inflation is on the rise.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the markets are indicating a potential recession as evidenced by a 65 basis points decline in the 10-year note yield over the past 11 weeks. Concurrently, annualized inflation metrics for 1 and 3 months have surged above 4%. This divergence, where rates are decreasing while inflation is increasing, suggests significant market volatility and potential trading opportunities.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the markets are signaling a recession as the 10-year note yield has decreased by 65 basis points over the past 11 weeks. This represents a significant reversal, coupled with the rise in 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics to over 4%. The unusual scenario of falling rates amidst rising inflation is influencing market behavior.