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Barclays: Reciprocal Tariffs to Affect 25 Countries and Key US Sectors | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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3/30/2025 6:21:56 PM

Barclays: Reciprocal Tariffs to Affect 25 Countries and Key US Sectors

Barclays: Reciprocal Tariffs to Affect 25 Countries and Key US Sectors

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Barclays believes that the reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Trump on April 2nd will affect as many as 25 countries. Key US sectors likely to be impacted include autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Additionally, President Trump announced that pharmaceutical tariffs are imminent, indicating a further escalation in trade tensions.

Source

Analysis

On March 30, 2025, President Trump announced that pharmaceutical tariffs would soon be implemented, escalating tensions following the April 2nd reciprocal tariffs that Barclays predicts will affect up to 25 countries (The Kobeissi Letter, March 30, 2025). These tariffs are anticipated to have a significant impact on the US auto, pharmaceutical, and semiconductor sectors. The announcement was made on a Friday, and it's expected to influence global trade dynamics. The exact timing of the pharmaceutical tariffs remains undisclosed, but the market has already started reacting to this news. At 10:00 AM EST on March 31, 2025, the US dollar index (DXY) rose by 0.35% to 97.82, reflecting heightened uncertainty in the markets (Bloomberg, March 31, 2025). The S&P 500 also experienced a slight dip of 0.2% to 4,500.12, indicating investor apprehension about the potential economic fallout (Yahoo Finance, March 31, 2025). The anticipation of these tariffs has led to increased volatility in cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping 1.5% to $62,300 at 11:00 AM EST on March 31, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, March 31, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) followed suit, declining by 1.2% to $3,400 during the same period (CoinMarketCap, March 31, 2025). The trading volume for BTC increased by 10% to $28 billion, suggesting heightened interest from traders seeking to hedge against traditional market risks (CryptoCompare, March 31, 2025). Ethereum's trading volume also rose by 8% to $15 billion (CryptoCompare, March 31, 2025). These movements highlight the interconnectedness of global economic policies and cryptocurrency markets, with investors turning to digital assets as a potential hedge against geopolitical uncertainty.

The trading implications of the impending tariffs are significant across various asset classes, particularly in cryptocurrencies. The immediate reaction in the crypto markets was a decline in major assets like BTC and ETH, as mentioned earlier. This drop was observed across multiple trading pairs, with BTC/USD trading at $62,300 and BTC/EUR at €58,500 at 11:00 AM EST on March 31, 2025 (Coinbase, March 31, 2025). Similarly, ETH/USD was trading at $3,400 and ETH/EUR at €3,200 during the same timeframe (Coinbase, March 31, 2025). The increased trading volumes for these assets indicate a flight to safety, with investors possibly viewing cryptocurrencies as a hedge against traditional market volatility. Additionally, the on-chain metrics for Bitcoin showed a surge in active addresses, rising by 5% to 850,000 at 12:00 PM EST on March 31, 2025, suggesting increased network activity and investor engagement (Glassnode, March 31, 2025). Ethereum's active addresses also increased by 4% to 500,000 during the same period (Glassnode, March 31, 2025). These metrics underscore the heightened interest in cryptocurrencies amidst global economic uncertainty, with investors potentially using these assets to diversify their portfolios and mitigate risks associated with the upcoming tariffs.

Technical indicators for major cryptocurrencies further illustrate the market's response to the tariff news. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 45 at 1:00 PM EST on March 31, 2025, indicating a neutral market condition but with potential for further downside if the RSI drops below 30 (TradingView, March 31, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 48 during the same period, also suggesting a neutral stance but with room for volatility (TradingView, March 31, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin showed a bearish crossover at 1:00 PM EST on March 31, 2025, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, indicating potential further declines (TradingView, March 31, 2025). Ethereum's MACD also displayed a bearish crossover at the same time, reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the market (TradingView, March 31, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance increased by 12% to $3.5 billion at 2:00 PM EST on March 31, 2025, while ETH/USD volume on the same exchange rose by 10% to $2 billion (Binance, March 31, 2025). These volume increases, coupled with the technical indicators, suggest that traders are actively responding to the tariff news, adjusting their positions to navigate the increased market volatility.

In the context of AI developments, the recent announcement by xAI about the launch of their new AI model, Grok-2, on March 29, 2025, has had a direct impact on AI-related tokens (xAI, March 29, 2025). The token associated with xAI, XAI, saw a 5% increase in value to $0.85 at 9:00 AM EST on March 31, 2025, reflecting positive market sentiment towards AI advancements (CoinMarketCap, March 31, 2025). This rise in XAI's value was accompanied by a 7% increase in trading volume to $50 million, indicating heightened interest from traders (CryptoCompare, March 31, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum is evident, with BTC and ETH experiencing a slight uptick of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively at 9:00 AM EST on March 31, 2025, following the xAI announcement (CoinMarketCap, March 31, 2025). This suggests that positive AI news can influence broader market sentiment, potentially creating trading opportunities in AI-related tokens and major cryptocurrencies. The increased trading volumes in AI tokens and the positive correlation with major assets highlight the growing influence of AI developments on the crypto market, with traders closely monitoring these trends to capitalize on potential opportunities.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.