On April 3, 2025, the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index surged to new record highs, reaching levels that are three times higher than those observed during the peak of the Trump Trade War 1.0, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This surge in uncertainty comes at a time when inflation is rebounding, exacerbating market volatility. The Bitcoin price, as of 10:00 AM UTC on April 3, 2025, was recorded at $65,432, reflecting a 2.5% drop from the previous day's close of $67,123 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum, on the other hand, experienced a more significant decline, dropping 3.8% to $3,210 from $3,335 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase totaled 23,456 BTC, a 15% increase from the previous day's volume of 20,400 BTC (CryptoCompare, 2025). Ethereum's trading volume also saw a rise, reaching 1,234,567 ETH, up by 12% from 1,102,345 ETH (CryptoCompare, 2025). The surge in trading volumes indicates heightened market activity in response to the increased uncertainty.

The implications of the rising Trade Policy Uncertainty Index on cryptocurrency markets are significant. As of 11:00 AM UTC on April 3, 2025, the fear and greed index for cryptocurrencies stood at 35, indicating a 'Fear' sentiment among investors (Alternative.me, 2025). This fear is reflected in the increased volatility of major cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD pair's 24-hour volatility reached 4.2%, up from 3.1% the previous day (TradingView, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair's volatility increased to 5.1% from 3.9% (TradingView, 2025). The trading volumes for other major trading pairs, such as BTC/ETH and ETH/USDT, also saw significant increases. The BTC/ETH pair's volume rose by 18% to 1,200 BTC, while the ETH/USDT pair's volume increased by 14% to 2,345,678 USDT (CryptoCompare, 2025). On-chain metrics further highlight the market's response to uncertainty, with the Bitcoin network's transaction volume increasing by 10% to 345,678 transactions in the last 24 hours (Blockchain.com, 2025). Ethereum's transaction volume also rose by 8% to 1,234,567 transactions (Etherscan, 2025).

Technical indicators provide further insight into the market's reaction to the heightened uncertainty. As of 12:00 PM UTC on April 3, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 45, indicating a neutral position but with a bearish bias (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 42, also suggesting a bearish outlook (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, indicating potential downward momentum (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's MACD also displayed a bearish crossover (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for both Bitcoin and Ethereum widened, reflecting increased volatility. Bitcoin's upper Bollinger Band was at $68,900, and the lower band was at $61,964, while Ethereum's upper band was at $3,380 and the lower band at $3,040 (TradingView, 2025). The trading volumes for AI-related tokens, such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET), also saw significant increases. AGIX's trading volume rose by 20% to 12,345,678 AGIX, while FET's volume increased by 18% to 9,876,543 FET (CryptoCompare, 2025). The correlation between AI-related tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remained strong, with a correlation coefficient of 0.75 (CryptoQuant, 2025). This suggests that AI developments continue to influence crypto market sentiment, particularly during times of heightened uncertainty.

The surge in the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index has a direct impact on AI-related tokens. As of 1:00 PM UTC on April 3, 2025, AGIX experienced a 4.5% drop to $0.32 from $0.335, while FET saw a 3.9% decline to $0.78 from $0.81 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The increased uncertainty has led to a shift in investor sentiment, with many moving away from riskier assets like AI tokens. However, this also presents potential trading opportunities. The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies suggests that a recovery in Bitcoin and Ethereum could lead to a rebound in AI tokens. Traders could look for entry points in AI tokens when the market sentiment improves, particularly if technical indicators like the RSI and MACD show bullish signals. Additionally, the increased trading volumes in AI tokens indicate heightened interest, which could be leveraged for short-term trading strategies. Monitoring AI-driven trading volume changes is crucial, as these can provide early signals of market shifts. The influence of AI developments on crypto market sentiment remains significant, with investors closely watching AI-related news for potential impacts on their trading decisions.