According to @glassnode, short-term carry strategies remain favorable as 1-week realized volatility has surged, but implied volatility has risen even more, maintaining a positive volatility risk premium. This indicates that implied volatility remains above realized volatility, and if realized volatility decreases, short option carries could be advantageous approaching expiry.

According to @caprioleio, there is a 34% chance quantum computing breaks Bitcoin within the next three years, implying BTC’s present value should be discounted by roughly 34% today, source: @caprioleio, X, Dec 17, 2025. He states that a network fix would take about 2–3 years to deploy, so the implied quantum-risk discount rate is increasing every day, source: @caprioleio, X, Dec 17, 2025. For trading, his framework suggests pricing a higher risk premium into BTC spot and long-dated exposure and reassessing term structure and downside tail risk as markets incorporate quantum computing risk to Bitcoin, source: @caprioleio, X, Dec 17, 2025.

According to @glassnode, at similar BTC spot levels to Nov 21, the 1-week put implied volatility previously spiked to 76%, indicating aggressive downside hedging (source: @glassnode, glassno.de/4ozRBSd). Yesterday the same tenor was roughly 63%, signaling a more muted risk premium and a less worried market (source: @glassnode, glassno.de/4ozRBSd). @glassnode cautions that any further downside could trigger a far sharper IV repricing, increasing the risk of rapid options repricing if spot weakens (source: @glassnode, glassno.de/4ozRBSd).

According to @CNBC, Vladimir Putin said Moscow is ready for serious talks on a Ukraine peace plan, breaking his silence on the proposal and signaling openness to negotiations, as reported by CNBC. For trading, geopolitical de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has historically compressed risk premia in crude and European natural gas, making Brent, WTI and Dutch TTF benchmarks pivotal intraday monitors for direction and volatility, source: International Energy Agency Oil Market Report; ACER European Gas Market Monitoring. Crypto has exhibited strong positive co-movement with equities since 2020, meaning shifts in global risk sentiment around war headlines can transmit to BTC and ETH via the risk-on/risk-off channel, source: International Monetary Fund Global Financial Stability Note 2022; Bank for International Settlements research 2022.