S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Achieve Historic 20%+ Rally: Implications for Crypto Market in 2025

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 surged 20.4% and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 27.3% over the last 41 trading sessions, marking their third-strongest rallies this century (source: Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, June 10, 2025). Historically, such robust equity market rebounds—in years like 2008 and 2020—have coincided with increased institutional risk appetite, often spilling over into cryptocurrency markets as investors seek high-growth opportunities. This trend suggests potential for increased volatility and upward momentum in leading digital assets, as traders track capital rotation from equities to crypto. Monitoring these historic stock rallies provides key signals for crypto traders looking to capitalize on shifting market sentiment and risk allocation.
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The trading implications of this stock market surge are multifaceted for cryptocurrency investors. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rallies indicate a strong risk-on environment, often a precursor to increased investment in speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. As of June 10, 2025, at 9:00 AM UTC, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $72,500 on the BTC/USD pair, up from $67,000 just a week prior, while Ethereum traded at $3,800 on ETH/USD, a 7.8% increase over the same timeframe, according to TradingView data. This parallel movement suggests a direct correlation between equity gains and crypto price action, particularly for top-tier tokens. Additionally, crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase Global (COIN) saw a 12.3% increase over the past week, closing at $245.60 on June 9, 2025, at 4:00 PM EDT, as reported by Yahoo Finance. This uptick reflects growing institutional interest in crypto exposure through traditional markets. For traders, this presents opportunities to long BTC and ETH during stock market uptrends, especially around key support levels like $70,000 for BTC and $3,600 for ETH as of June 10, 2025, at 1:00 PM UTC. However, the risk of sudden reversals in stock indices due to macroeconomic data releases or Federal Reserve policy shifts could trigger sell-offs in crypto, making stop-loss orders essential. Monitoring the VIX volatility index, which dropped to 12.5 on June 9, 2025, at 2:00 PM EDT, can also provide early warnings of shifting sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the crypto market’s response to the stock rally is evident in key indicators and volume data. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stood at 68 as of June 10, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC, nearing overbought territory but still signaling bullish momentum, per CoinMarketCap analytics. Ethereum’s RSI mirrored this at 65, with a 24-hour trading volume of $18.5 billion across ETH/USD and ETH/BTC pairs on Binance and Coinbase, up 20% from the previous week as of June 9, 2025, at 5:00 PM UTC. On-chain metrics further support this trend, with Bitcoin’s active addresses increasing by 5.7% to 1.1 million over the past week, as reported by Glassnode on June 10, 2025, at 8:00 AM UTC. This suggests growing network activity and investor engagement correlating with stock market gains. The correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin has risen to 0.78 over the past 30 days as of June 10, 2025, at 11:00 AM UTC, indicating a strong positive relationship, according to data from MacroAxis. For institutional investors, the flow of capital between stocks and crypto is notable, with Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) seeing inflows of $120 million in the week ending June 9, 2025, at 6:00 PM EDT, per their official reports. This institutional money flow underscores the growing integration of crypto in traditional portfolios, amplifying the impact of stock market movements on digital assets.
In summary, the historic stock market recovery, with the S&P 500 up 20.4% and Nasdaq 100 up 27.3% over 41 trading sessions as of June 10, 2025, has directly influenced crypto markets, driving Bitcoin and Ethereum prices higher with increased trading volumes. This cross-market correlation offers traders actionable opportunities to leverage bullish trends in both equities and crypto, while remaining vigilant of potential reversals. For those trading crypto-related ETFs or stocks like COIN, the current environment suggests potential for further upside, provided stock market momentum persists. Keeping an eye on technical indicators, on-chain data, and institutional flows will be critical for navigating this interconnected landscape.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.