S&P 500 Breadth Slumps: Only 26% Outperform in 3 Months, 55% Above 200-DMA — Why Tech Leadership Matters for Crypto Traders
According to The Kobeissi Letter, only about 26% of S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index over the last three months, the lowest since early 2024, highlighting increasingly narrow market breadth, source: The Kobeissi Letter, X, Nov 10, 2025. The share of outperformers has dropped by roughly 40 percentage points since November 2024, signaling a sharp concentration into big tech leaders, source: The Kobeissi Letter, X, Nov 10, 2025. This mirrors the 2022 bear market episode when just 20% of stocks outperformed at the October low, source: The Kobeissi Letter, X, Nov 10, 2025. The current level also sits well below the approximately 45% five-year average, underscoring breadth deterioration, source: The Kobeissi Letter, X, Nov 10, 2025. As of Friday, only 55% of S&P 500 constituents were above their 200-day moving average, near the lowest since June, reinforcing the need to monitor mega-cap tech drivers, source: The Kobeissi Letter, X, Nov 10, 2025. Trading takeaway: concentrate risk monitoring on tech leadership and breadth gauges such as outperformer share and 200-day participation to guide equity exposure and to frame cross-asset sentiment that crypto traders track during risk-on or risk-off phases, source: The Kobeissi Letter, X, Nov 10, 2025.
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In the ever-evolving landscape of stock market trading, recent data highlights a striking concentration of performance within the S&P 500, underscoring how big tech stocks are driving the majority of gains. According to financial analyst Adam Kobeissi from The Kobeissi Letter, only about 26% of S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the index over the last three months as of November 10, 2025. This figure marks the lowest level since early 2024 and represents a sharp 40-point decline since November 2024. This trend echoes the patterns observed during the 2022 bear market, where merely 20% of stocks outperformed at the October low, and it falls significantly below the five-year average of around 45%. Furthermore, on the preceding Friday, just 55% of S&P 500 constituents were trading above their 200-day moving average, nearing the lowest point since June. These metrics signal a market heavily reliant on a handful of tech giants, urging traders to closely monitor technology sector movements for broader index implications.
Analyzing Market Breadth and Tech Dominance in Trading Strategies
Diving deeper into these statistics, the narrowing market breadth suggests potential vulnerabilities in the overall equity landscape, which could influence trading decisions across various asset classes. For instance, when such a small percentage of stocks drives index performance, it often indicates over-reliance on mega-cap names like those in the Magnificent Seven, including companies heavily invested in AI and innovation. Traders should note that this concentration can lead to increased volatility; historical parallels from 2022 show how similar drops preceded broader market corrections. In terms of technical analysis, the 200-day moving average serves as a critical support level—falling below it for a majority of stocks could trigger sell-offs. For day traders and swing traders, this presents opportunities to short underperforming sectors while going long on resilient tech plays. Incorporating tools like relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) can help identify entry points, especially around key resistance levels near recent highs. As of the latest data, this tech-heavy skew might amplify momentum trading strategies, where focusing on volume spikes in tech ETFs could yield short-term gains.
Crypto Correlations: How S&P 500 Tech Trends Impact BTC and ETH Trading
From a cryptocurrency trading perspective, the dominance of big tech in the S&P 500 has profound ripple effects on digital assets, particularly BTC and ETH, which often exhibit strong correlations with Nasdaq and tech indices. Historically, when tech stocks surge, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin benefit from heightened risk appetite and institutional flows, as investors seek high-growth alternatives. For example, during periods of narrow market breadth in equities, BTC has seen increased trading volumes as traders pivot to crypto for diversification. Recent on-chain metrics, though not real-time here, typically show spikes in ETH transfers during tech rallies, driven by AI-related developments that boost tokens like those in decentralized computing. Traders should watch for support levels in BTC around $60,000 and resistance at $70,000, using these as pivots influenced by S&P 500 movements. If tech continues to outperform, it could fuel bullish sentiment in AI-focused cryptos such as FET or RNDR, offering trading opportunities in pairs like BTC/USD or ETH/BTC. Institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, often tied to equity market confidence, further link these markets—monitor daily volumes for correlations. In a scenario where only 26% of stocks beat the index, crypto traders might capitalize on volatility by employing strategies like options trading on platforms supporting crypto derivatives, hedging against potential equity pullbacks that drag down ETH prices.
Looking ahead, this tech-centric market dynamic emphasizes the need for diversified portfolios that bridge traditional stocks and cryptocurrencies. Savvy traders can explore cross-market arbitrage, such as pairing long positions in tech-heavy Nasdaq futures with BTC longs during upward trends. However, risks abound; a sudden shift below the 200-day moving average in more S&P 500 stocks could spark a risk-off environment, pressuring altcoins and leading to rapid liquidations in leveraged crypto positions. To mitigate this, incorporate stop-loss orders at key levels and track sentiment indicators like the fear and greed index for crypto. Ultimately, keeping a keen eye on tech stocks, as advised by Kobeissi, could unlock profitable trades by anticipating how equity breadth influences broader market flows into assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This interconnectedness highlights trading opportunities where institutional adoption of AI technologies drives both stock and crypto valuations higher, potentially setting the stage for new all-time highs if breadth improves.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.