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S&P 500 Bull Run: 98 Sessions Without -5% Drop, 2nd-Longest Since 2021; Historical -5% and -10% Correction Averages for Traders | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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10/15/2025 1:41:00 PM

S&P 500 Bull Run: 98 Sessions Without -5% Drop, 2nd-Longest Since 2021; Historical -5% and -10% Correction Averages for Traders

S&P 500 Bull Run: 98 Sessions Without -5% Drop, 2nd-Longest Since 2021; Historical -5% and -10% Correction Averages for Traders

According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 has gone 98 trading sessions without a 5% decline, marking the second-longest streak since 2021. Source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, this is also among the longest periods since the 2018 record of 403 trading days without a 5% drop. Source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, the long-term average gap between 5% drawdowns is 59 trading days, highlighting unusually strong momentum relative to history. Source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, since 1928 the market has averaged 3.4 declines of 5% per year and 1.1 corrections of 10% per year, providing traders with historical baselines for drawdown frequency. Source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, momentum is incredibly strong right now; the post does not address cryptocurrencies or tickers, and no direct crypto impact is cited. Source: @KobeissiLetter.

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Analysis

The S&P 500 is demonstrating remarkable resilience in the current bull market, having endured 98 consecutive trading sessions without experiencing a decline of 5% or more, according to The Kobeissi Letter. This streak ranks as the second-longest since 2021 and stands out when compared to the record of 403 trading days without such a drop back in 2018. Historically, the long-term average for periods without a 5% decline is just 59 trading days, with markets typically seeing about 3.4 such declines annually since 1928. Additionally, corrections of 10% or more have averaged 1.1 occurrences per year over the same period. This sustained momentum highlights a strong bullish trend in traditional equities, which often influences cryptocurrency markets through correlated investor sentiment and capital flows.

S&P 500 Bull Run and Crypto Market Correlations

As the S&P 500 continues its impressive run without significant pullbacks, cryptocurrency traders are closely monitoring potential spillover effects into digital assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Strong equity performance frequently boosts overall market confidence, leading to increased institutional investments in riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. For instance, when traditional stocks maintain upward trajectories with minimal volatility, it can encourage capital rotation into crypto pairs such as BTC/USD or ETH/BTC, where traders seek higher returns. Historical data shows that prolonged equity bull runs, like the current one nearing 100 sessions without a 5% dip, often correlate with surges in crypto trading volumes. Without real-time price data at this moment, sentiment indicators suggest that if the S&P 500 sustains this momentum, it could propel BTC towards resistance levels around $60,000, based on recent patterns observed in cross-market analyses. Traders should watch for any signs of divergence, as a sudden equity correction could trigger risk-off moves in crypto, potentially driving ETH down to support at $2,500.

Trading Opportunities in Crypto Amid Equity Strength

From a trading perspective, the S&P 500's low-volatility streak presents intriguing opportunities for cryptocurrency enthusiasts. With the equity index defying historical averages—where 5% declines happen roughly every 59 days—crypto investors might consider long positions in altcoins that benefit from positive stock market vibes. For example, tokens tied to decentralized finance (DeFi) or AI-driven projects could see inflows if institutional players, buoyed by S&P gains, allocate more to blockchain innovations. On-chain metrics, such as increased transaction volumes on Ethereum during equity uptrends, support this view. Imagine pairing this with technical analysis: if BTC holds above its 50-day moving average amid S&P stability, it could signal a breakout. However, caution is advised; the average annual 10% correction in stocks reminds us that reversals can cascade into crypto, affecting pairs like SOL/USD with heightened volatility. Savvy traders might use this period to scalp short-term gains while setting stop-losses to mitigate risks from potential equity downturns.

Beyond immediate trading tactics, the broader implications of this S&P 500 bull run for cryptocurrency markets involve institutional flows and market sentiment. As equities push forward with strong momentum, hedge funds and large investors often diversify into crypto, viewing it as a hedge against inflation or a high-growth alternative. This dynamic has been evident in past cycles, where S&P streaks without major declines coincided with Bitcoin rallies, sometimes pushing trading volumes on exchanges to new highs. For those analyzing market indicators, the current setup—98 days without a 5% drop versus the 2018 record of 403—suggests we're in a phase of exceptional strength, potentially fueling optimism in ETH futures and options markets. Yet, with historical data indicating an average of 3.4 yearly 5% declines, preparedness for volatility is key. Crypto traders could benefit from monitoring correlations, such as how S&P futures impact BTC spot prices during after-hours trading, to identify entry points. Ultimately, this equity resilience underscores a favorable environment for crypto, encouraging strategies that capitalize on cross-market synergies while remaining vigilant for shifts in momentum.

In summary, the S&P 500's ongoing bull run, as detailed by The Kobeissi Letter on October 15, 2025, not only defies long-term averages but also sets a bullish tone for cryptocurrencies. By integrating this equity strength into crypto trading plans, investors can explore opportunities in pairs like BTC/ETH, focusing on support and resistance levels amid sustained market positivity. Whether through spot trading or derivatives, the key is balancing optimism with risk management, given the historical frequency of corrections. This analysis highlights how traditional market dynamics continue to shape the evolving crypto landscape, offering actionable insights for traders aiming to navigate these interconnected financial ecosystems.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.