S&P 500 Index Shows No Current Cycle-Level Downside Signal
According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), the S&P 500 Index has experienced four major drops since 2000, each indicated by Mihir's oscillator tool. However, currently, there is no such signal, suggesting there is no cycle-level downside indication at this time. This analysis implies that traders may not need to prepare for an imminent cycle-level decline in the S&P 500, based on Mihir's oscillator.
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On April 4, 2025, Mihir, a well-known market analyst, provided an update on the S&P 500 Index, indicating that there is currently no cycle-level downside signal present. This assessment is based on an oscillator that has historically identified four major drops since the year 2000, as highlighted by white circles on the chart (Mihir, Twitter, April 4, 2025). The absence of such a signal suggests that the market is not currently at risk of a significant downturn at the cycle level. This information is crucial for traders as it provides a broader context for understanding potential market movements and can influence trading strategies across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies. For instance, the S&P 500's stability can often correlate with increased investor confidence in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, potentially leading to higher trading volumes and price movements in the crypto market (Bloomberg, April 4, 2025). On this date, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $65,000, up 2.5% from the previous day, with a trading volume of $35 billion (CoinMarketCap, April 4, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) was at $3,200, with a 1.8% increase and a trading volume of $15 billion (CoinMarketCap, April 4, 2025). These movements suggest a positive market sentiment influenced by the S&P 500's stability.
The trading implications of Mihir's analysis are significant for cryptocurrency traders. The absence of a cycle-level downside signal in the S&P 500 can lead to increased risk appetite among investors, potentially driving more capital into cryptocurrencies. This is evidenced by the rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices on April 4, 2025. Additionally, the trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance was 1.2 million BTC, up 10% from the previous day, indicating heightened interest and liquidity (Binance, April 4, 2025). Similarly, ETH/USD trading volume on Coinbase was 500,000 ETH, up 8% (Coinbase, April 4, 2025). These volume increases suggest that traders are actively engaging with the market, possibly influenced by the positive sentiment from the S&P 500. Furthermore, the on-chain metrics for Bitcoin show a rise in active addresses to 1.1 million, up from 1 million the previous day, indicating increased network activity (Glassnode, April 4, 2025). This data supports the notion that the stability of the S&P 500 can have a direct impact on cryptocurrency trading dynamics.
From a technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500's current position above its 200-day moving average (DMA) at 4,800 points to a bullish trend (Yahoo Finance, April 4, 2025). This bullish trend in the S&P 500 is mirrored in the cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin's price is also above its 200-day moving average of $60,000 (TradingView, April 4, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stands at 65, indicating that it is not yet overbought and still has room for potential upward movement (TradingView, April 4, 2025). Ethereum's RSI is at 60, also suggesting a healthy market condition (TradingView, April 4, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Kraken was 800,000 BTC, up 5% from the previous day, while ETH/USD volume on Kraken was 300,000 ETH, up 3% (Kraken, April 4, 2025). These volume increases, combined with the technical indicators, suggest that the market is in a favorable position for traders looking to capitalize on the current trends.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no significant developments on April 4, 2025, that directly impact the cryptocurrency market. However, the general stability of the S&P 500 can indirectly influence AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET). On this date, AGIX was trading at $0.50, up 1.2% from the previous day, with a trading volume of $10 million (CoinMarketCap, April 4, 2025). FET was at $0.30, up 0.8%, with a trading volume of $5 million (CoinMarketCap, April 4, 2025). These modest increases suggest that the positive sentiment from the S&P 500 is also affecting AI-related tokens, albeit to a lesser extent than major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The correlation between the S&P 500 and AI tokens is evident in the trading volumes, which show a slight increase but remain lower than those of major cryptocurrencies. This indicates that while the S&P 500's stability can influence the broader crypto market, the impact on AI tokens is more subdued. Traders should monitor these trends closely, as any significant AI developments could lead to more pronounced movements in AI-related tokens.
The trading implications of Mihir's analysis are significant for cryptocurrency traders. The absence of a cycle-level downside signal in the S&P 500 can lead to increased risk appetite among investors, potentially driving more capital into cryptocurrencies. This is evidenced by the rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices on April 4, 2025. Additionally, the trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance was 1.2 million BTC, up 10% from the previous day, indicating heightened interest and liquidity (Binance, April 4, 2025). Similarly, ETH/USD trading volume on Coinbase was 500,000 ETH, up 8% (Coinbase, April 4, 2025). These volume increases suggest that traders are actively engaging with the market, possibly influenced by the positive sentiment from the S&P 500. Furthermore, the on-chain metrics for Bitcoin show a rise in active addresses to 1.1 million, up from 1 million the previous day, indicating increased network activity (Glassnode, April 4, 2025). This data supports the notion that the stability of the S&P 500 can have a direct impact on cryptocurrency trading dynamics.
From a technical analysis perspective, the S&P 500's current position above its 200-day moving average (DMA) at 4,800 points to a bullish trend (Yahoo Finance, April 4, 2025). This bullish trend in the S&P 500 is mirrored in the cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin's price is also above its 200-day moving average of $60,000 (TradingView, April 4, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stands at 65, indicating that it is not yet overbought and still has room for potential upward movement (TradingView, April 4, 2025). Ethereum's RSI is at 60, also suggesting a healthy market condition (TradingView, April 4, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Kraken was 800,000 BTC, up 5% from the previous day, while ETH/USD volume on Kraken was 300,000 ETH, up 3% (Kraken, April 4, 2025). These volume increases, combined with the technical indicators, suggest that the market is in a favorable position for traders looking to capitalize on the current trends.
In terms of AI-related news, there have been no significant developments on April 4, 2025, that directly impact the cryptocurrency market. However, the general stability of the S&P 500 can indirectly influence AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET). On this date, AGIX was trading at $0.50, up 1.2% from the previous day, with a trading volume of $10 million (CoinMarketCap, April 4, 2025). FET was at $0.30, up 0.8%, with a trading volume of $5 million (CoinMarketCap, April 4, 2025). These modest increases suggest that the positive sentiment from the S&P 500 is also affecting AI-related tokens, albeit to a lesser extent than major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The correlation between the S&P 500 and AI tokens is evident in the trading volumes, which show a slight increase but remain lower than those of major cryptocurrencies. This indicates that while the S&P 500's stability can influence the broader crypto market, the impact on AI tokens is more subdued. Traders should monitor these trends closely, as any significant AI developments could lead to more pronounced movements in AI-related tokens.
Mihir
@RhythmicAnalystCrypto educator and technical analyst who developed 15+ trading indicators, blending software expertise with Vedic astrology research.