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S&P 500 Posts 23 Record Highs in Q3, Best Since 1998; History Points to +6.3% 12-Month Average Gain — Crypto Watchers Eye BTC, ETH Correlation | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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10/1/2025 8:59:00 PM

S&P 500 Posts 23 Record Highs in Q3, Best Since 1998; History Points to +6.3% 12-Month Average Gain — Crypto Watchers Eye BTC, ETH Correlation

S&P 500 Posts 23 Record Highs in Q3, Best Since 1998; History Points to +6.3% 12-Month Average Gain — Crypto Watchers Eye BTC, ETH Correlation

According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 set 23 all-time highs last quarter, its strongest streak since 1998, with a +8.4% three-month gain and a +3.5% September marking the best September in 15 years, source: The Kobeissi Letter (Oct 1, 2025). Since 1929, after quarters with 20 or more record highs, the S&P 500 has risen 6.3% on average and advanced 63% of the time over the next 12 months, and the author notes history suggests the run could continue, source: The Kobeissi Letter (Oct 1, 2025). For crypto, Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities increased notably in 2020–2021, indicating equity momentum can transmit to BTC and ETH during risk-on regimes, source: IMF Blog by Tobias Adrian, Tara Iyer, and Mahvash S. Qureshi (Jan 2022). Traders can monitor BTC and ETH for potential spillover from equity strength given the documented cross-asset correlation, source: IMF Blog by Adrian, Iyer, and Qureshi (Jan 2022) and The Kobeissi Letter (Oct 1, 2025).

Source

Analysis

The S&P 500 has delivered a historic bull market performance, recording 23 all-time highs in the last quarter, marking its strongest streak since 1998. This surge mirrors the market momentum seen in Q4 2017, a period that many traders remember for its explosive gains across both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. As a result, the index rallied an impressive +8.4% over the past three months, with September alone contributing a +3.5% gain, the best monthly performance for that period in 15 years. Historical data since 1929 shows that after quarters with 20 or more record highs, the S&P 500 has averaged a +6.3% rise over the next 12 months, advancing 63% of the time. This suggests the current market run could continue, offering valuable insights for traders eyeing cross-market opportunities, particularly in cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH that often correlate with stock market trends.

S&P 500 Bull Market Signals Strong Crypto Correlations

From a cryptocurrency trading perspective, the S&P 500's robust performance is a key indicator of broader market sentiment that frequently spills over into digital assets. In Q4 2017, for instance, the stock market's rally coincided with Bitcoin's monumental surge to nearly $20,000, driven by institutional interest and retail enthusiasm. Today, with the S&P 500 hitting these record highs as of October 1, 2025, according to The Kobeissi Letter, traders should monitor potential parallels. If history repeats, this could fuel upward momentum in crypto markets, where BTC has shown a correlation coefficient of around 0.6 with the S&P 500 over the past year. Key trading pairs like BTC/USD and ETH/USD might see increased volumes, with support levels for Bitcoin potentially holding at $60,000 amid positive equity flows. Institutional investors, who have been allocating more to both stocks and crypto, could amplify this trend, as evidenced by recent ETF approvals boosting liquidity in assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Trading Opportunities Amid Historical Precedents

Analyzing the data further, the S&P 500's +8.4% quarterly gain and +3.5% September rally highlight resistance levels around 5,800 for the index, with potential upside to 6,000 if the bull run persists. For crypto traders, this translates to watching on-chain metrics such as Bitcoin's transaction volumes, which spiked 15% during similar stock surges in 2017. Trading strategies could involve longing BTC/ETH pairs if S&P 500 futures show continued strength, targeting a 10-15% upside based on historical averages. Moreover, the 63% probability of gains over the next 12 months post-record highs suggests a favorable risk-reward ratio for diversified portfolios including altcoins like SOL or LINK, which often benefit from equity market tailwinds. Avoid over-leveraging, as volatility remains high; instead, use technical indicators like RSI above 70 on daily charts to confirm overbought conditions before entering positions.

Beyond immediate trading signals, this bull market underscores institutional flows bridging traditional finance and crypto. With the S&P 500's performance aligning with economic optimism, cryptocurrency adoption could accelerate, potentially driving ETH prices toward $4,000 if correlated rallies materialize. Traders should track market indicators such as the VIX fear index dropping below 15, which historically precedes crypto booms. In summary, while the S&P 500's historic run provides a bullish backdrop, combining it with crypto-specific data like whale accumulations on Ethereum could uncover high-conviction trades. As always, diversify across assets to mitigate risks from any sudden reversals, ensuring your strategy aligns with long-term market trends for optimal returns.

Broader Market Implications for Crypto Investors

Looking ahead, the S&P 500's trajectory offers lessons for cryptocurrency market sentiment. Since 1929, such high-frequency record closes have led to average 12-month gains of +6.3%, a statistic that crypto enthusiasts can leverage for sentiment analysis. For example, during the 1998 streak, tech stocks boomed, paving the way for digital innovation that echoes today's AI-driven crypto tokens. If the current run continues into 2026, expect increased capital inflows into DeFi platforms and NFT markets, correlating with stock highs. Trading volumes in pairs like BTC/USDT could surge 20-30% on exchanges, providing liquidity for scalping opportunities. Ultimately, this data from October 1, 2025, reinforces a positive outlook, encouraging traders to position for growth while monitoring macroeconomic factors like interest rate cuts that enhance both equity and crypto valuations.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.