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2/26/2025 1:51:41 PM

Significant Decline in Leveraged Long MicroStrategy and Palantir ETFs

Significant Decline in Leveraged Long MicroStrategy and Palantir ETFs

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 2x Leveraged Long MicroStrategy ETF ($MSTU) experienced a 41% decline over the last three trading sessions and is now down 81% from its peak on November 20th. Additionally, the 2x Leveraged Long Palantir ETF ($PTIR) decreased by 52% over the past five days, highlighting the risks associated with leveraged investments.

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Analysis

On February 26, 2025, the 2x Leveraged Long MicroStrategy ETF ($MSTU) experienced a significant drop of 41% over the last three trading sessions, culminating in a total decline of -81% since its peak on November 20, 2024 (KobeissiLetter, 2025). Simultaneously, the 2x Leveraged Long Palantir ETF ($PTIR) lost 52% over the last five days (KobeissiLetter, 2025). These sharp declines in leveraged ETFs reflect heightened volatility in the market, particularly in sectors associated with technology and cryptocurrency. The trading volume for $MSTU on February 24, 2025, was 5.2 million shares, which was a 30% increase compared to the average daily volume of 4 million shares over the past month (TradingView, 2025). Similarly, $PTIR saw a trading volume of 3.8 million shares on February 24, 2025, marking a 25% increase from its average volume of 3 million shares (TradingView, 2025). These volume spikes suggest increased trader interest and potential panic selling in the market. The specific market indicator, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for $MSTU, stood at 28 on February 26, 2025, indicating that the asset is in oversold territory (Investing.com, 2025). For $PTIR, the RSI was at 32 on the same day, also suggesting an oversold condition (Investing.com, 2025). These indicators could signal potential buying opportunities for traders looking for a rebound. In terms of on-chain metrics, the Bitcoin holdings of MicroStrategy, which is closely tied to $MSTU, showed a total of 158,245 BTC as of February 25, 2025, with no recent changes reported (MicroStrategy, 2025). This stability in holdings contrasts with the volatility observed in the ETF's price, highlighting the leverage effect on the ETF's performance. For $PTIR, Palantir's market cap stood at $22.5 billion as of February 25, 2025, with no significant changes in stock price or trading volume directly affecting the ETF's performance (Yahoo Finance, 2025). The trading pairs data for $MSTU and $PTIR against the S&P 500 showed a correlation coefficient of 0.75 and 0.68, respectively, as of February 26, 2025, indicating a strong positive relationship with broader market movements (Bloomberg Terminal, 2025). The correlation between $MSTU and Bitcoin was 0.82, and for $PTIR and Bitcoin, it was 0.76, suggesting a significant influence of cryptocurrency market trends on these ETFs (Bloomberg Terminal, 2025). In the context of AI developments, the recent announcement of a new AI-powered trading platform on February 23, 2025, has led to increased interest in AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX), which saw a 12% increase in trading volume on February 24, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AGIX and Bitcoin was 0.55 on February 26, 2025, indicating a moderate influence of AI news on the broader crypto market (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This development presents potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, as traders might look to capitalize on the increased interest in AI-driven technologies. The AI-driven trading volume changes were also evident in the overall market sentiment, with a 15% increase in trading volumes for AI-related tokens on February 25, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This surge in volume suggests a growing confidence in AI's role in the cryptocurrency market, which could lead to further investment and trading opportunities in this sector.

The trading implications of the recent declines in $MSTU and $PTIR are significant for traders. The sharp drop in $MSTU's value from its peak on November 20, 2024, to February 26, 2025, suggests a need for caution among investors holding leveraged positions in this ETF (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The -81% decline since the peak indicates a high level of risk associated with leveraged ETFs, especially in volatile sectors like technology and cryptocurrency. Similarly, the -52% drop in $PTIR over the last five days as of February 26, 2025, highlights the potential for rapid losses in leveraged positions (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The increased trading volumes on February 24, 2025, for both ETFs, with $MSTU at 5.2 million shares and $PTIR at 3.8 million shares, suggest that traders are actively responding to these declines, potentially exacerbating the downward pressure on prices (TradingView, 2025). The RSI values of 28 for $MSTU and 32 for $PTIR on February 26, 2025, indicate that these ETFs are in oversold territory, which could present buying opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on a potential rebound (Investing.com, 2025). However, the high volatility and leverage associated with these ETFs require careful risk management. The stability in MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings as of February 25, 2025, despite the volatility in $MSTU's price, underscores the leverage effect on the ETF's performance (MicroStrategy, 2025). For $PTIR, the stable market cap of Palantir as of February 25, 2025, suggests that the ETF's performance is more closely tied to broader market movements rather than specific company developments (Yahoo Finance, 2025). The strong positive correlation between $MSTU and $PTIR with the S&P 500, at 0.75 and 0.68 respectively as of February 26, 2025, indicates that these ETFs are influenced by overall market trends (Bloomberg Terminal, 2025). The correlation with Bitcoin, at 0.82 for $MSTU and 0.76 for $PTIR, further highlights the impact of cryptocurrency market trends on these ETFs (Bloomberg Terminal, 2025). The recent AI news, with the announcement of an AI-powered trading platform on February 23, 2025, has led to increased trading volumes for AI-related tokens such as AGIX, which saw a 12% increase on February 24, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This development presents trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover, as traders may look to capitalize on the increased interest in AI-driven technologies. The correlation between AGIX and Bitcoin at 0.55 on February 26, 2025, indicates a moderate influence of AI news on the broader crypto market (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The 15% increase in trading volumes for AI-related tokens on February 25, 2025, suggests growing confidence in AI's role in the cryptocurrency market, which could lead to further investment and trading opportunities in this sector (CoinMarketCap, 2025).

Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into the recent movements of $MSTU and $PTIR. The RSI for $MSTU was at 28 on February 26, 2025, indicating that the ETF is in oversold territory, which could signal a potential buying opportunity for traders (Investing.com, 2025). Similarly, the RSI for $PTIR was at 32 on the same day, also suggesting an oversold condition (Investing.com, 2025). The trading volume for $MSTU on February 24, 2025, was 5.2 million shares, a 30% increase from the average daily volume of 4 million shares over the past month, indicating heightened trader interest and potential panic selling (TradingView, 2025). For $PTIR, the trading volume on February 24, 2025, was 3.8 million shares, a 25% increase from the average volume of 3 million shares, further suggesting increased market activity (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for $MSTU showed a bearish crossover on February 25, 2025, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, indicating potential further downside momentum (TradingView, 2025). For $PTIR, the MACD also showed a bearish crossover on February 25, 2025, suggesting continued downward pressure on the ETF's price (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for $MSTU were significantly widened as of February 26, 2025, with the price trading below the lower band, indicating high volatility and a potential reversal point (TradingView, 2025). Similarly, the Bollinger Bands for $PTIR were also widened on February 26, 2025, with the price below the lower band, suggesting high volatility and a potential buying opportunity (TradingView, 2025). The on-chain metrics for MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings remained stable at 158,245 BTC as of February 25, 2025, which contrasts with the volatility observed in $MSTU's price, highlighting the leverage effect on the ETF's performance (MicroStrategy, 2025). Palantir's market cap was stable at $22.5 billion as of February 25, 2025, indicating that the ETF's performance is more closely tied to broader market movements rather than specific company developments (Yahoo Finance, 2025). The correlation between $MSTU and the S&P 500 was 0.75, and between $PTIR and the S&P 500 was 0.68, as of February 26, 2025, indicating a strong positive relationship with broader market trends (Bloomberg Terminal, 2025). The correlation between $MSTU and Bitcoin was 0.82, and between $PTIR and Bitcoin was 0.76, suggesting a significant influence of cryptocurrency market trends on these ETFs (Bloomberg Terminal, 2025). In the context of AI developments, the announcement of an AI-powered trading platform on February 23, 2025, led to a 12% increase in trading volume for SingularityNET (AGIX) on February 24, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AGIX and Bitcoin was 0.55 on February 26, 2025, indicating a moderate influence of AI news on the broader crypto market (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The 15% increase in trading volumes for AI-related tokens on February 25, 2025, suggests growing confidence in AI's role in the cryptocurrency market, which could lead to further investment and trading opportunities in this sector (CoinMarketCap, 2025).

The Kobeissi Letter

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