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The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.
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Global Equities: Market Cap Hits 137% of GDP
Global equity market cap hits record $166 trillion as stock market cap to GDP ratio reaches 137%, up 40 points since April 2025 with AI industry impact fueling surge. (Source) 07-26-2026 00:49 |
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Solana: Tokenized Equities Volume Hits 85% Share
Solana captures 85% of onchain tokenized equities volume as holders reach 670,000 after +449% YTD growth, with Jupiter volume up 300%. (Source) 07-22-2026 17:35 |
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Bitcoin: ETFs Pull $900 Million Inflows
Bitcoin ETFs recorded $900 million inflows last week led by $IBIT at $66350.71, accelerating from $197 million prior as BTC price prediction turns constructive. (Source) 07-22-2026 16:12 |
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Fed: Rate Hike Odds Drop to 8% on CPI Data
Fed rate hike odds at July 29 meeting plunge to 8% after CPI posts largest monthly decline since April 2020, shifting July FOMC meeting expectations. (Source) 07-14-2026 12:48 |
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Bitcoin ETF: Weekly Inflows Resume After Eight Weeks
Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $197.4M and Ethereum $84.4M last week, ending an 8-week -$7B outflow streak as trailing 12-month total drops to $1B. (Source) 07-13-2026 20:13 |
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China: AI Token Usage Tops US by 85%
China AI models hit 98 trillion tokens in June, 85% above US levels, per Apollo, as global AI model rankings shift with 20 Chinese entries now in top 50. (Source) 07-11-2026 00:34 |
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Solana: Tokenized Equities Volume Hits Record $3.4B
Solana network takes 90% share of record $3.4B tokenized equities volume in June, up 279% MoM, fueled by SpaceX IPO and Jupiter aggregator. (Source) 07-08-2026 16:50 |
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Bitcoin: Drops Below $62000 on MSTR Sale
Bitcoin falls below $62000 after MicroStrategy sells $216 million in BTC to fund dividends, with 4h chart showing bearish EMA50 resistance at $61809. (Source) 07-06-2026 12:56 |
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0DTE Options: Retail Volume Share Hits Record 48%
0DTE options now comprise 48% of retail options volume, tripling over five years as average contract expiration falls below three days. (Source) 07-05-2026 17:16 |
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AI CapEx: Projected to Hit 3.2% of US GDP by 2027
AI CapEx from Alphabet $GOOGL, Amazon $AMZN, Meta $META, Microsoft $MSFT, Oracle $ORCL to hit $800B in 2026 then $1.1T in 2027 at 3.2% US GDP. (Source) 07-05-2026 14:33 |
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Bitcoin: Reclaims $63,000 Threshold
Bitcoin reclaims $63129.96 as 4h chart shows EMA50 support at $61231.78 and MACD golden cross. (Source) 07-04-2026 18:26 |
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Crypto Deposits: Cross $10 Billion Milestone
Crypto card deposits top $10 billion for first time, surging 82% YTD on stablecoin payment rails adoption cross-border transactions and Open USD launch. (Source) 07-01-2026 22:05 |
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Bitcoin: Drops Below $58,000 as Liquidations Accelerate
Bitcoin falls below $58,000 with accelerating levered liquidations. Price at $58,805.5 shows bearish 4h structure on EMA50 resistance and MACD death cross. (Source) 07-01-2026 01:16 |
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Bitcoin: Drops Below $58,500 With $320M Liquidations
Bitcoin falls under $58,500 as $320 million in leveraged positions liquidate, with 4h chart showing bearish EMA structure at $60,736 resistance. (Source) 06-30-2026 15:57 |
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MicroStrategy: Levered ETFs Fall 82% Year-to-Date
MicroStrategy $MSTR drops 46% YTD as $MSTX, $MSTU, $MSTP plunge over 80%, highlighting leverage risks amid crypto market crash. (Source) 06-29-2026 13:21 |
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Bitcoin ETFs: Retail Rotation Drives $12B Outflows
Bitcoin ETFs post $12B outflows since April as retail capital shifts to semiconductor ETFs with $20B inflows; $IBIT down 12% while $SOXX surges 81%. (Source) 06-27-2026 15:02 |
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Agentic AI Market: Growth to $300B by 2035
Agentic AI market surges from $8B today to $300B by 2035 while memory limits fuel vector database infrastructure for agentic AI and long-context solutions. (Source) 06-26-2026 20:01 |
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Crypto: Record $2.3 Trillion 8-Month Market Cap Drop
Crypto total market cap drops $2.3 trillion from $4.3T peak to $2T in 261 days, largest 8-month decline on record. (Source) 06-24-2026 21:20 |
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Bitcoin: 64% Odds of Sub-$50K Drop in 2026
Bitcoin odds of falling below $50,000 in 2026 surge to 64% while crypto market cap halves from $4.3T to $2T in 261 days. (Source) 06-24-2026 17:57 |
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Crypto: $2T Cap After 54% Drop From $4.3T Peak
Crypto total market cap drops to $2 trillion from $4.3 trillion peak, marking -54% decline and $8.8B daily losses over 261 days amid Bitcoin weakness. (Source) 06-24-2026 17:34 |