According to @CryptoMichNL, while Bitcoin (BTC) and gold remain under pressure due to U.S. macroeconomic data pointing towards potential stagflation, the Bitcoin-to-Gold (BTC/XAU) price ratio is showing significant strength. The analysis highlights that recent data, including a higher-than-expected core PCE price index, has weighed on the assets even as the Nasdaq hits new records (source: @CryptoMichNL). However, the BTC/XAU ratio surged over 10% last week, confirming a breakout from a bullish flag pattern. This technical formation signals a likely continuation of the uptrend, with analysis suggesting the ratio could rally towards 42.00, potentially surpassing its previous all-time high and indicating strong outperformance for Bitcoin relative to gold (source: @CryptoMichNL).

According to @KobeissiLetter, a significant divergence is occurring in the markets as the Nasdaq 100 reaches new all-time highs while Bitcoin (BTC) and gold remain under pressure. This pressure on BTC and gold is partly attributed to recent U.S. macroeconomic data suggesting potential stagflation; the core PCE price index for May rose 0.2%, exceeding the 0.1% forecast, while personal income and spending both declined, missing expectations. Furthermore, a recent auction of 10-year U.S. Treasury notes saw strong demand, outstripping supply by over 2.5 times according to Exante Data, which challenges the narrative that investors are rotating out of U.S. debt and into alternative assets like Bitcoin. As the U.S. national debt surpasses $36 trillion, an upcoming 30-year bond sale will be a key indicator of investor confidence. Meanwhile, BTC continues to consolidate, trading around $107,569 based on current data.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Bitcoin (BTC) and gold are experiencing downward pressure while the Nasdaq 100 reaches new all-time highs. This divergence is occurring as recent U.S. macroeconomic data points to potential stagflation, with the core PCE price index for May rising 0.2%, slightly above the 0.1% forecast, as stated in the report. Despite a growing U.S. national debt of over $36 trillion, a recent auction of 10-year Treasury notes showed strong demand, challenging the narrative of investors flocking to BTC and gold as safe havens. The source notes that Bitcoin is currently consolidating, with BTCUSDT data showing a price of approximately $107,572, trading between a 24-hour high of $108,746 and a low of $106,766.

According to @AltcoinGordon, while the Nasdaq 100 reaches new all-time highs, Bitcoin (BTC) and gold remain under pressure, partly due to macroeconomic data indicating potential stagflation. The source highlights that the core PCE price index rose 0.2% in May, exceeding the 0.1% expectation, a point noted by Peter Schiff as bullish for gold despite market selling. A significant bullish catalyst for BTC and gold has emerged from President Trump's recent comments on Truth Social, where he stated that massive economic growth would offset deficits from his proposed tax cuts. Crypto analyst Will Clemente reacted by suggesting this loose fiscal policy approach diminishes the appeal of U.S. Treasuries and strengthens the investment case for hard assets like Bitcoin and gold as hedges against inflation and currency debasement. From a technical standpoint, BTC has been trading within a range of $107,194 to $108,489, with key support established at $107,300.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation climbed to 3.6% in April 2025, with a 0.4% month-over-month increase and CPI excluding fresh food jumping 0.7%, marking the sharpest monthly gain since October 2023. The annual inflation rate accelerated from 3.2% to 3.5%, the fastest since January 2023 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 25, 2025). This pronounced inflation surge raises concerns of stagflation, which may impact the crypto market by increasing volatility in yen-denominated trading pairs and driving investor interest toward digital assets as alternative hedges.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve now considers stagflation—characterized by stagnant growth and persistent inflation—as its base economic scenario for 2025 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 9, 2025). For traders, this shift signals increased market volatility and risk-off sentiment, with potential downward pressure on equities. Historically, stagflation has driven institutional interest toward alternative assets such as Bitcoin and gold, as investors seek hedges against fiat currency weakness. Crypto traders should monitor macroeconomic data and Fed policy updates closely, as stagflationary pressures could spur demand for decentralized assets and drive speculative momentum in major cryptocurrencies.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, stagflation has become the base case even for the Federal Reserve as of May 2025 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 9, 2025). This shift signals persistent inflation combined with slow economic growth, which historically weighs on traditional equities but often boosts interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as inflation hedges. Traders should note that sustained stagflation typically increases volatility and risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market, as investors seek to diversify away from fiat-exposed assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, following this morning's data, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing rate cuts beginning in June 2024 has increased to 61%. However, markets do not anticipate immediate cuts, signaling persistent stagflation risks and heightened uncertainty over the Fed's policy direction. This macroeconomic ambiguity has led to short-term volatility in major cryptocurrencies, as traders reassess risk exposure and await further signals from the Fed’s dual mandate. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, April 30, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, stagflation is effectively illustrated through two impactful charts, reflecting its influence on market dynamics. These visuals underscore the challenges traders face with stagnant economic growth coupled with inflationary pressures. The charts provide a clear depiction of current economic conditions, crucial for informed trading decisions.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the threatened tariffs on the EU are set to impact approximately $600 billion of imports, which could potentially reduce US GDP by 70 basis points and add 40 basis points to inflation. This information suggests that stagflation may have already begun, affecting trading strategies that rely on economic stability. The potential economic impacts should be considered by traders when evaluating market positions, particularly in sectors sensitive to import costs and inflationary pressures.

According to @KobeissiLetter, tariffs threatened on the EU, totaling approximately $600 billion of imports, could significantly impact the US economy. These tariffs are projected to reduce US GDP by about 70 basis points and contribute an additional 40 basis points to inflation. The analysis highlights the risk of stagflation, indicating potential challenges for traders in adjusting strategies accordingly.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Goldman's basket of stocks, which perform well in a 'Stagflation Scenario,' are experiencing significant gains. This development complicates the Federal Reserve's strategy, as higher interest rates might trigger a recession, while lower rates could exacerbate inflation. The current economic environment poses a dilemma for interest rate policy, impacting trading strategies in equity markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve's strategy of maintaining 'higher rates for longer' is challenged by the current economic conditions of slowing growth and rising inflation. This situation suggests a period of stagflation, impacting financial markets as GDP contracts and inflation rises, placing the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. This analysis is crucial for traders as it indicates potential volatility in interest rates and inflation-sensitive assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Federal Reserve's current strategy of maintaining higher interest rates may no longer be viable as the US economy faces potential stagflation, characterized by slowing GDP and rising inflation. This situation poses a significant challenge for the Fed's economic policy, making it critical for traders to monitor potential shifts in monetary policy.

According to @KobeissiLetter, long-term US inflation expectations have surged to 4.1%, marking the highest level since 1993. This increase is attributed to tariff front-running, which has resulted in a $300+ billion trade deficit over two months and a collapse in consumer sentiment. Such economic conditions are critical for traders to monitor as they may signal potential stagflation, impacting market volatility.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, long-term US inflation expectations have surged to 4.1%, the highest since 1993, leading to a significant impact on trading strategies. This surge has been accompanied by a $300+ billion trade deficit in just two months and a collapse in consumer sentiment, factors crucial for traders to consider. These developments suggest potential stagflation concerns, which could influence market volatility and trading decisions.

According to @KobeissiLetter, long-term US inflation expectations have surged to 4.1%, marking the highest level since 1993. This significant rise is attributed to tariff front-running, which has resulted in a $300+ billion trade deficit over two months. These developments have also led to a collapse in consumer sentiment, raising concerns about potential stagflation. Traders should consider the implications of these inflationary pressures on market dynamics.

According to @KobeissiLetter, US long-term inflation expectations have surged to 4.1%, marking the highest level since 1993. This surge is attributed to tariff front-running, which has resulted in a $300+ billion trade deficit over two months, contributing to a collapse in consumer sentiment. These developments are crucial for traders as they indicate potential stagflation, necessitating adjustments in trading strategies to mitigate risks associated with inflationary pressure and economic stagnation.

According to @KobeissiLetter, long-term US inflation expectations have surged to 4.1%, marking the highest level since 1993. This significant rise is attributed to tariff front-running, which has resulted in a $300+ billion trade deficit over two months. Additionally, consumer sentiment has sharply declined. These factors are crucial for traders monitoring inflation impacts on market conditions and potential stagflation risks.

According to @KobeissiLetter, long-term US inflation expectations have surged to 4.1%, marking the highest level since 1993. This increase is attributed to tariff front-running, resulting in a $300+ billion trade deficit over two months, significantly impacting consumer sentiment. These factors may indicate a potential rise in stagflation, which could influence trading strategies and market positions.