According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of 12 percent since 1980 while experiencing an average intra-year drawdown of minus 14 percent, underscoring the risk and return tradeoff that guides equity positioning and timing. source: https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1984735736583610691 For traders, this historical drawdown profile implies that position sizing, stop-loss thresholds, and VaR should be calibrated to withstand mid-teens pullbacks even in strong years when managing SPX or SPY exposure. source: https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1984735736583610691 Because crypto has exhibited higher co-movement and volatility spillovers with U.S. equities since 2020, equity risk-off phases often coincide with BTC and ETH drawdowns, making these equity drawdown statistics directly relevant for crypto risk budgeting and execution. source: https://blogs.imf.org/en/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-posing-new-risks/

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the current financial markets are sending conflicting signals: stocks are rising as if the trade war has ended, gold is increasing as if tensions are escalating, yields are climbing suggesting recession fears are easing, oil prices are dropping as if a recession is imminent, and the US Dollar Index is falling. For crypto traders, these divergent trends indicate heightened uncertainty and increased volatility potential, making risk management crucial. Crypto markets may experience sharp moves in response to sudden changes in traditional assets as traders seek safe-haven or risk-on alternatives (Source: Twitter/@KobeissiLetter, May 20, 2025).