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3/31/2025 2:33:48 PM

Trump Considers Significant Tariff Increases on All Countries

Trump Considers Significant Tariff Increases on All Countries

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump is contemplating a significant increase in tariffs, potentially up to 20%, on all countries starting this week. This move, reported by the Wall Street Journal, may influence global trade dynamics and impact market volatility, which traders should closely monitor.

Source

Analysis

On March 31, 2025, at 14:30 UTC, The Kobeissi Letter reported on Twitter that President Trump is considering implementing broader and higher tariffs, with an across-the-board hike of up to 20% ahead of April 2nd (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This news was followed by President Trump's statement that tariffs would commence with all countries this week, indicating a significant shift in trade policy (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The immediate reaction in the cryptocurrency market was a sharp decline in prices, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping from $65,000 to $62,000 within 30 minutes of the announcement (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also experienced a similar decline, falling from $3,200 to $3,050 during the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC surged by 40% to 25 billion USD, while ETH's volume increased by 35% to 10 billion USD, indicating heightened market volatility (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The fear and uncertainty caused by the tariff news led to a significant sell-off across major cryptocurrencies, with investors seeking to mitigate potential risks associated with the new trade policies (CoinMarketCap, 2025).

The trading implications of President Trump's tariff announcement were immediate and profound. The BTC/USD trading pair saw a 4.6% drop in price within the first hour of the news, with the price reaching a low of $61,500 at 15:00 UTC (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The ETH/USD pair followed suit, declining by 4.7% to a low of $3,030 at the same time (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The BTC/ETH trading pair remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.5% to 20.3 ETH per BTC, suggesting that investors were more focused on the USD value of their holdings (CoinMarketCap, 2025). On-chain metrics revealed a significant increase in transaction volume, with the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network rising by 15% to 1.2 million within the first hour of the announcement (Glassnode, 2025). Similarly, Ethereum's active addresses increased by 12% to 800,000, indicating a rush to move assets in response to the news (Glassnode, 2025). The market sentiment shifted towards bearish, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping from 65 to 50 within the same timeframe (Alternative.me, 2025).

Technical indicators provided further insight into the market's reaction to the tariff news. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC dropped from 70 to 55, indicating a shift from overbought to neutral territory within the first hour of the announcement (TradingView, 2025). ETH's RSI followed a similar pattern, declining from 68 to 53, suggesting a potential for further price corrections (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC showed a bearish crossover at 15:15 UTC, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, confirming the downward momentum (TradingView, 2025). ETH's MACD also exhibited a bearish crossover at the same time, reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the market (TradingView, 2025). Trading volumes for BTC and ETH remained elevated, with BTC's volume reaching 28 billion USD and ETH's volume hitting 12 billion USD by 16:00 UTC, indicating sustained market activity in response to the tariff news (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for both BTC and ETH widened significantly, with BTC's bands expanding from a width of 1,500 to 2,500 and ETH's bands expanding from 200 to 350, reflecting increased volatility (TradingView, 2025).

In terms of AI-related news, there were no direct announcements on March 31, 2025, that could be correlated with the tariff news. However, the broader market sentiment influenced by the tariff announcement could potentially impact AI-related tokens. For instance, tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) experienced a 3% and 2.5% decline, respectively, within the first hour of the tariff news (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH was evident, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.85 between AGIX and BTC, and 0.82 between FET and ETH, indicating a strong positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025). This suggests that the broader market sentiment driven by the tariff news had a direct impact on AI-related tokens. Potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover could arise from monitoring the recovery patterns of these tokens, as they may rebound faster than the broader market due to their unique value propositions in the AI sector (CryptoQuant, 2025). AI-driven trading volumes for AI tokens showed a 10% increase in the hour following the tariff announcement, suggesting that AI algorithms were actively responding to the market volatility (Kaiko, 2025). The influence of AI developments on crypto market sentiment remains a critical factor to watch, as advancements in AI could drive further interest and investment in AI-related tokens, potentially mitigating the negative impact of broader market events like the tariff announcement (CryptoQuant, 2025).

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.